Tuesday, December7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmette, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:20PM Tuesday December 7, 2021 7:19 PM CST (01:19 UTC) Moonrise 11:46AMMoonset 9:02PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202112080415;;071501 Fzus53 Klot 072046 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 246 Pm Cst Tue Dec 7 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-080415- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 246 Pm Cst Tue Dec 7 2021
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. A chance of flurries after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north in the afternoon. A chance of flurries in the morning. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Increasing clouds. Waves 1 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmette, IL
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location: 42.08, -87.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 072348 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 548 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021

SHORT TERM. Issued at 242 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021

Through Wednesday night .

After a swath of light snow showers moved through the far northern CWA late this morning, just about the whole area is snow-free with the exception of a few lingering flurries. Aside from these, no more precipitation is expected through the evening. The broken cloud ceilings will stick with us through the evening as well, although a clear slot upstream tied to a dry midlevel airmass could potentially provide some spotty clearing throughout the evening. A low level shortwave trough situated just out to our west will propagate into our vicinity later this evening. This feature drops a fairly weak center of low pressure at the surface but produces a notable pocket of low level vorticity which should stir up some newly advected moisture just enough to produce a few flurries overnight tonight and into early tomorrow morning. The further north in the CWA you are, the greater the potential of seeing some of these light flurries. At this time, chances appear minimal for areas south of I-80. No accumulations or travel impacts are expected with any of these.

Tomorrow morning, temperatures won't be far off from where they are now with the thick, lowering cloud cover keeping us in the lower 20's for early morning lows. Dry air being advected in from the lee side of an approaching ridge will help clear skies up through the morning leaving us with more sun than clouds for most of our Wednesday. The sunshine will also give temperatures a little boost through the day which should result in afternoon highs in the lower and middle 30's. These clear skies will be short-lived with more moisture being introduced into the low and mid levels downstream from a surface low pressure center. This will cause cloud cover to build through the night and into early Thursday. However, the building clouds won't make it in time to keep Thursday morning's lows from dropping into the lower and middle 20's.

Doom

LONG TERM. Issued at 213 PM CST Tue Dec 7 2021

Thursday through Tuesday .

Shortwave trough will pass well north of the area Thursday with north-south oriented warm front/surface trough extending south from parent surface low located north of the Canadian border. All indications are that the better forcing will remain well north of our CWA and blended model pops have come down on Thursday which seems reasonable. If any precip does materialize, the best chances will be far northern CWA toward the WI border, where a wintry mix or some very light snow looks to be the most likely precip type.

A more vigorous, deep trough is forecast to emerge to the lee of the Rockies later this week with surface cyclogenesis forecast to take place over the panhandle region of Oklahoma and Texas on Friday, with the low forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday morning. The 12z operational models are in pretty good agreement on the general track of this low, though being that we're still several days out, some adjustments to the forecast track could occur. Given the most recent model guidance, it appears the low will cut across our CWA with the better chances of measurable snow staying northwest of our CWA. While there is good agreement in guidance on the track keeping the measurable snow north of our area now, is worth keeping an eye on later model runs to make sure no southward trends in the expected track occur.

If current track holds, then the southern and southeastern portions of the CWA would get into the warm sector Friday night with temps climbing at least well into the 50s, if not into the lower 60s. Have maintained some small chances of thunderstorms in the southern CWA where guidance suggests that some weak instability could spread north into the area. Most organized rain looks to be Friday afternoon and evening with dry slot moving in later Friday night.

The "cold" air mass in the wake of this system looks to be of Pacific origins and will knock temps down to slightly above average over the weekend. Heading into next week, medium and long range guidance for quite some time has been locked onto an unseasonably strong upper ridge setting up over much of the central and eastern U.S. likely bringing unseasonably warm temperatures to a large portion of the country, including our area. Confidence is very high in above average temps next week, the bigger question will probably be how much stratus advects north. If our warm up is shrouded in stratus, then highs may be limited to the upper 40s/lower to mid 50s, but the stratus would likely keep nighttime lows at or above 40 (15-20F above avg). If stratus is less prominent, then it is entirely possible that 60 degree temperatures would be attainable across the area. The explicit high temps from the 12z ECMWF have both Wednesday and Thursday well into the 60s across the entire CWA. No precipitation is expected through the first half of next week.

- Izzi

AVIATION. For the 00Z TAFs .

No major concerns for the forecast period. Thought about adding a mention of flurries toward morning in association with a weak low pressure center moving across the area, but available moisture is pretty lacking. Effects appear to be limited to a lower VFR cloud deck, though would not be surprised to see a brief period of flurries with little to no impacts. This should clear the area by late morning. Winds will gradually veer from southerly this evening to northwesterly by late morning in the wake of the passing low, then around to easterly by tomorrow evening while relaxing and possibly even going light and variable at times.

Lenning

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OKSI2 13 mi80 min E 2.9G6 26°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi30 min S 20G24 24°F 6°F
CNII2 17 mi20 min S 7G14 23°F 4°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 20 mi80 min SSW 13G19 23°F
JAKI2 22 mi80 min S 6G8.9 25°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 26 mi104 min S 7G12 22°F 1019 hPa3°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 35 mi20 min S 14G17 23°F 1017.6 hPa (-2.7)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi40 min S 5.1G8 23°F 1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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This dayW9
G17
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G18
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G23
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G26
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W3
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G17
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G25
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G16
S6
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G18
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G7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi28 minS 1010.00 miOvercast24°F3°F40%1019.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi29 minS 1010.00 miOvercast24°F4°F42%1019.5 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL20 mi27 minS 12 G 1810.00 miOvercast24°F2°F38%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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This dayW9
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W7NW8W7NW8W5NW6NW6W40SW4S4SW54W3SW5SW5SW6S7S9S8S10
1 day agoW4W14W9W7W5W9W14
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2 days agoNW4NW400NE30E4E5SE6SE8SE13
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SE9SE9SE7SE9SE7S5SE400W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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