Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 4:22 AM   Moonset 6:12 PM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 060357 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1157 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly sunny and mild Monday.

- Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Marginal risk of strong to severe storms south of I-94 Tuesday.

AVIATION

High pressure settling across the northern Great Lakes supplies SE Mi with cool and dry air late tonight through Monday evening. This eliminates concern for low level clouds while a generous supply of cirrus spreads in from the TN valley low pressure system. High pressure becoming centered over northern Lake Huron sets up a steady east wind across the region by mid morning. Lake breeze augmentation leans wind direction toward the NE at mbS and SE at DTW by mid afternoon into Monday evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection... thunderstorms are not expected late tonight through Monday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

DISCUSSION...

Skies will continue to clear from northwest to southeast across the area this afternoon into early this evening as high pressure begins to build into the area in the wake of an exiting cold front. Any lingering isolated showers or patchy drizzle will dissipate during the late afternoon/early evening. Clear skies and light winds during the overnight will promote decent cooling with lows well into the 40s in most locations. This high pressure will remain in place Monday with skies ranging from mostly sunny north to partly sunny south as a weak mid level disturbance associated with today's convection well to the south brushes the area. Highs should reach the upper 60s to around 70.

During this time frame, a much stronger upper level system will emerge over the northern/central plains and lead to rapid surface cyclogenesis over the western Dakotas with a cold front pivoting quickly around the base of this low through the plains. A notable severe weather outbreak is expected along this boundary over the central plains. This front occludes as it then works east and northeast into SE MI by late in the day Tuesday.

While a minor axis of instability does progress into/near the region along this front, overall conditions still seem minimally supportive for any notable strong/severe thunderstorms. (Even NAM has higher CAPE environment subdued well south of the area over the Tennessee Valley). That said, a marginal risk of severe weather has been posted for the southern part of the forecast area as the northern fringe of region of strongest shear and at least modest instability does encroach on the Michigan and Ohio state line. So, perhaps a strong storm or two will be possible on southern edge of what will be a general area of showers/rumbles of thunder as the front arcs northeast through the area.

Additional jet energy will race off the Pacific ocean around the base of the occluded upper low over the northern plains. This will provide another active weather day on Wednesday with showers and a few thunderstorms. Once again, it appears the bulk of the severe weather potential will remain south of the region on Wednesday with just shower chances increasing from late in the day into Wednesday night. Shower/isolated thunder chances actually persist into the day Thursday as a northern stream shortwave pivots into the Great Lakes from Canada.

This northern stream shortwave is the first of several which will usher in a upper level pattern change that will bring cooler weather to the region from late this week into next weekend as upper level troughing becomes prevalent. So, the upper 60s to mid 70s common on Tuesday and Wednesday will be replace by upper 50s to mid 60s.
Isolated to scattered showers will dot the area within this overall unsettled pattern as well. Low temperatures will approach 40 in some locations next weekend with some 30s not out of the question.

MARINE...

A weak cold front will finish pushing through the region this afternoon. High pressure then centers itself over the region tonight through Monday night which will result in winds generally under 15 knots with low wave heights. Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night as a warm front gets pulled up through the Great Lakes. After a possible lull on Wednesday, a low pressure system will then target the area on Thursday bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms.
At this time winds and waves are likely to remain below marine headline criteria.

HYDROLOGY...

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area along a warm front Tuesday afternoon and persist into the evening. While a few of the thunderstorms will produce locally heavy downpours, average rainfall will remain below half an inch and in many cases well below that threshold. No major flood concerns are expected at this time.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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