Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Springfield, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 6:46PM Thursday September 23, 2021 11:06 PM EDT (03:06 UTC) Moonrise 8:14PMMoonset 9:08AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 1000 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt Friday...
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Scattered showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Scattered tstms in the morning. Numerous showers.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1000 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves across late tonight into Friday. High pressure will then build in behind the front late Friday into Saturday. High pressure remains in control through Monday. A cold front is possible on Tue.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Springfield, MA
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location: 42.13, -72.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 240229 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1029 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A slow-moving front will bring isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with localized flooding possible overnight into Friday. A secondary wave of low pressure will likely bring another round of rain sometime Saturday into Saturday night across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Otherwise, Canadian high pressure will bring early fall-like weather with cool nights and very pleasant days for the first half of next week. Mainly dry weather expected too with the best chance for a round of showers sometime late Monday into Monday night with a cold front.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. * Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with localized flooding possible between 4 AM and noon Friday * Flash Flood Watch in effect for our western zones. * Elevated rip current risk through tomorrow afternoon.

1029 PM update .

No major changes to the overall forecast overnight. Did try to tweak rainfall and thunderstorm chances and timing based on the latest near term guidance and observed trends. The main concerns overnight continue to be the risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, along with downpours.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis still showed an axis of higher instability, albeit on the weaker side, extending north through the CT River Valley. Both effective and 0-500 m AGL helicity values were on the higher side of climatology for our region, approaching 200 m2/s2. will need to monitor any thunderstorms closely overnight for possible rotation. Thus far, the majority of any thunderstorms remained to our west.

750 PM Update .

Widely scattered brief heavy rain showers continued to impact the region this evening. While showers were short-lived in any given location . a modest southeast LLJ coupled with tropical moisture in place were allowing for them to contain brief heavy rainfall. Overall; areal coverage and duration of this activity will remain somewhat limit until after midnight. However, very strong forcing will approach western MA and western CT after 3 or 4 AM and combined with the tropical airmass in place. The previous forecast discusses this below.

Later tonight, the closed low lifts into southern Quebec and the 500mb trough becomes negatively tilted. A 40 kt 850mb low level jet will also overspread our region, helping to organize storms. Together with 35-45 kt bulk shear and 150-200 m2/s2 of low-level helicity, a few isolated storms could become strong or severe and capable of damaging wind gusts and even a tornado or two. And due to the slow-moving nature of the front along with PWATs 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal, there is a risk of localized flash flooding where heavy rain develops. That could impact early morning commute in cities like Springfield, MA and Hartford, CT. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the east slopes of the Berkshires into Hartford county.

In addition, persistent southeast flow will also generate swells for much of our coastline into tomorrow. A Rip Current Statement has been issued for the elevated rip current risk.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Friday .

* Risk continues for a few isolated rotating storms and localized flash flooding.

Dynamic closed low starts lifting to the northeast, along with the threat for a few isolated rotating storms and heavy rain threat. We continue to be in a tropical environment with PWATs approaching 2 inches out ahead of the slow-moving cold front, which is 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. While low- level flow and dynamics are impressive, widespread cloudiness and low- level inversion given the predominant southeast flow should keep overall severe weather threat scattered to isolated in nature. Having said that, it is possible we get a storm or two to tap into the strong vertical wind shear and low-level helicity, resulting in a few embedded bowing segments or even supercell structures. If that were to occur, we could get damaging wind gusts along with a brief tornado or two, especially along the mesolow and certainly in the vicinity of the triple point.

Temperature forecast wise, it looks like Eastern MA and RI could see breaks in sunshine that should send highs into the upper 70s and even low 80s, which is 5-10 degrees above climatological normal. With dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, it would feel uncomfortably mild and muggy.

Any leftover showers should come to an end across Western MA and CT by mid to late afternoon, with partial clearing possible along with dew points falling into the mid 50s to low 60s.

Friday night .

Lingering showers across Eastern MA and RI gradually come to an end in the evening. It appears that there would be quite a dew point spread overnight as the cold front would be slow to clear the region. While Western MA and CT should see dew points falling into the upper 40s to low 50s, Eastern MA could still be rather humid with dew points remaining in the low to mid 60s overnight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Highlights .

* Another round of rain likely sometime Sat into Sat night at least across portions of eastern MA and RI

* Early fall-like weather for the first half of next week with dry weather dominating with cool nights and very pleasant days

Details .

Saturday and Saturday night .

The main concern with this forecast will revolve around the potential for another round of rain sometime Sat into Sat night. Upper level ridging off the east coast coupled with meridional flow will continue to result in very slow west to east movement of a cold front. It appears that this front will temporarily stall near or just off the coast as a wave of low pressure works northward along it Sat into Sat night.

There is uncertainty in regards to where exactly this front stalls and the westward extent of this next rain shield. Individual GEFS/EPS ensembles are showing some decent spread; so this forecast certainly main change. Currently it looks like eastern MA and RI are at the greatest risk for another round of rain focused Sat afternoon and night. However, this certainly could shift further west into the CT River Valley or eastward sparing a lot of the region. Again, adjustments may need to be made but right now our focus for another round of rain is across eastern MA/RI.

Sunday through next Thursday .

The EPS/GEFS are in very good agreement in a pattern change to cooler early fall-like weather during the first half of next week. Northeast trough will finally result in seasonable early fall-like weather with much less humidity. Low temperatures much of next week will be in the 40s/50s with highs generally in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Canadian high pressure will result in mainly dry weather for most of the first half of next week. The best chance for a round of showers will be late Mon into Mon night with another cold front. But overall, expect dry early fall-like weather for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight . Moderate Confidence. CIGs/VSBYs lower to MVFR/IFR in low clouds and areas of fog from west to east as the night progresses. Lowest of the cigs/vsbys will be northwest of I-95 and its possible areas towards the Cape/Islands remain borderline VFR through daybreak. Scattered SHRA to start, becoming more numerous overnight with sct TSRA possible after 08Z across western MA and western CT. Southeast winds 10-20 kt with 20-25 kt gusts.

Friday . Mix of MVFR/VFR as a cold front crosses the region. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. South winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across Cape terminals.

Friday night . VFR conditions for western terminals. MVFR improving to VFR across eastern terminals after midnight except for Cape terminals, where MVFR ceilings could linger through daybreak. South winds 5-10 kt except gusts up to 20 kt across Cape terminals early in the evening.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Southeast winds continue across the waters. Seas continue to build to 5-7 ft across most outer waters.

Patchy showers/drizzle and fog possible across the waters during this period. Thunderstorms possible across the coastal waters late tonight into Friday.

Lingering showers are possible Friday night as winds shift from south to west with 25-30 kt gusts possible at times before diminishing overnight.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night through Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for CTZ002. MA . High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for MAZ007-015- 016-019>024. Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for MAZ002-003- 008>011. RI . High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for RIZ006>008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ231-232- 251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230-233>237- 255-256. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ250-254.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/Chai NEAR TERM . Belk/Frank/Chai SHORT TERM . Chai LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . Belk/Frank/Chai MARINE . Belk/Frank/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 58 mi48 min 74°F 73°F1017.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 62 mi48 min SE 12 G 14 75°F 73°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA6 mi70 minSSE 11 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F68°F82%1016.3 hPa
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA11 mi73 minSSE 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast74°F71°F91%1015.3 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT16 mi75 minSSE 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast75°F70°F84%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCEF

Wind History from CEF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S11S8SE9S8S8S9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmS4SW7SW6SW7S5S4S3S3--N3

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut
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Hartford
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Thu -- 12:20 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:50 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:31 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.91.51.92.121.71.41.10.80.50.30.40.91.62.12.32.321.71.410.7

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
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Thu -- 04:05 AM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:23 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:20 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:58 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.91.522.22.11.91.51.20.90.50.30.40.91.62.12.42.42.21.81.51.10.70.4

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