Saturday, October16, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 6:54PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:20 AM EDT (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 2:24AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;677433 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KDTX 160805 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 405 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

DISCUSSION.

Ongoing area of light rain will slide east and depart by mid- morning as midlevel height falls and CVA exit to the eastern Great Lakes. This process is being governed by an amplified longwave trough pivoting across the Great Lakes which finally ushers out the active baroclinic zone that led to several days of wet weather. Strong negative thickness advection ensuing through the day with 850mb temps tumbling from 10C last evening to around 0C by later this afternoon. This cold advection will activate the lake effect response with a healthy stratocumulus field enveloping the region this afternoon and possibly producing some isolated sprinkles. Additionally, steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in breezy conditions with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. Highs in the mid to upper 50s today which for most areas will be the first day with highs below 60 since September 23.

The loss of daytime heating promotes scattering of clouds this evening which leads into a night of favorable cooling conditions. Lows in the 40s tonight may feel cool given the stretch of recent warm weather, but will be right around normal for mid-October. An active westerly gradient will keep winds from completely decoupling and prevent further cratering of temps. Meanwhile, the resident longwave trough will begin its departure by Sunday morning.

Confluent upper flow spills over the Great Lakes through the day Sunday as the upper jet moves in on the backside of the trough. Shortwaves within the energetic northwest flow with some lingering cold advection may be sufficient to trigger some showers mainly over the eastern Thumb on Sunday. Otherwise, dry weather and mostly sunny skies prevail with temperatures beginning a rebound with the exit of the thermal trough. Still breezy on Sunday with a relatively deep mixed layer developing within the dry ambient environment with a persistent northwest gradient.

Benign conditions dominate the early and mid week as tropospheric ridging expands eastward. The ridge axis itself is progged to stall just to our west on Monday and slowly dampen in response to a strong Pacific low tracking across the intermountain west. Northwest winds then back to the southwest by Tuesday and Wednesday which allows for a shift to a warm advective regime. This brings the return of warmer conditions with highs in the upper 60s both days. Active weather returns Wednesday night into Thursday as the aforementioned Pacific low reaches the Great Lakes bringing our next chance of rain. This system is advertised to bring the return of more seasonable conditions for Friday into the weekend.

MARINE.

Mainly showers through early today as the main upper trough axis and stronger cold front moves across the western and central Great Lakes. There will be a much greater lake response behind this front as much cooler air filters into the region. The cold air moving over the relatively warmer waters will bring a chance for waterspouts over the weekend. Winds will also increase with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots likely across Lake Huron Saturday. Gusts will be around 25 to 30 knots. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all marine zones through today. Lingering precipitation with a chance for waterspouts continues across central and northern Lake Huron tonight before activity clears out during the day Sunday. High pressure then brings quieter marine conditions during the early week, though the cooler air keeps some elevated wind gusts to around 20 knots across Lake Huron on Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

AVIATION .

A large area of rain is currently lifting northward out of the Ohio River Valley towards Southeast Michigan. The rain is associated with organized differential cyclonic vorticity advection occurring ahead of a strong PV anomaly. A lot is happening to the thermodynamic environment as a good amount of cold advection is occurred between 2.0 and 10.0 kft agl. Lapse rates have steepened considerably in the lower troposphere which has knocked out the low column inversion. Ceilings have temporarily improved this evening with the loss of the strong static stability. Rain activity will overspread the area again as a strong ageostrophic response to dcva steepens the cold frontal slope. Bulk of data supports VFR rain shower activity tonight with differential near surface cold advection supporting some shallow convective instability and MVFR to potential pockets of IFR after 09Z. Post frontal northwest flow will support a well mixed boundary layer and VFR clouds Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceilings at or below 5000 feet late tonight and Saturday. Low confidence during the mid to late evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ444.



DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . AA AVIATION . CB

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi50 min NW 8.9G12 55°F 1007.6 hPa54°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi80 min W 7G8.9 57°F 1008.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
Last
24hr
N2
N4
E4
E7
NE3
G6
NE3
G7
NE4
G10
NE5
G9
NE7
G10
NE7
G10
NE4
G9
NE3
G6
W4
G8
NW7
NW8
G12
NW9
G13
NE4
G9
NW4
W4
NW6
NW4
NW10
G13
NW9
G12
NW12
G18
1 day
ago
SW4
G7
SW5
S3
G8
SW6
G10
SW6
G9
SW5
G11
SW7
G13
SW5
G9
SW7
G12
SW7
G16
SW4
G13
SW5
G14
SW8
G14
SW9
G15
NW5
G10
NW6
G9
NW2
G5
--
N4
SW2
SE2
SW2
G5
NW3
NW1
G4
2 days
ago
W4
G7
SW2
G5
SW4
W3
G6
SW7
G10
SW4
G8
SW5
SW5
SW4
G11
SW5
G9
SW8
G12
SW8
G11
SW6
G9
W1
--
SE3
SE5
SE7
S8
S4
G8
SW5
G10
SW7
SW5
G9
SW6

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi27 minNNW 10 G 1910.00 miLight Rain50°F46°F86%1008.4 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi27 minNNW 610.00 miLight Rain50°F48°F93%1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KARB

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
Last 24hrE30000SE5NE5NE6NE6NE4NE6N7NE5N5NW10N8N4NW5W5W5NW6NW9NW7NW10
G19
1 day ago00SW4SW4SW5S5S7SW10SW8SW6
G15
W10
G17
SW8SW10
G20
NW6
G19
W4SW3W40N5SW400W3SW4
2 days agoNW300SW300S5SW8SW10SW9SW9W9W8SW400SE4SE7S4S4SW5000

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE.