Wednesday, September22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence Park, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:18PM Wednesday September 22, 2021 7:07 AM EDT (11:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:23PMMoonset 7:37AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:202109220215;;968323 Fzus51 Kcle 211949 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 349 Pm Edt Tue Sep 21 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez148-149-220215- Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 349 Pm Edt Tue Sep 21 2021
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers this evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 73 degrees, off cleveland 73 degrees, and off erie 70 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence Park, PA
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location: 42.16, -80.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 221052 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 652 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will move northeast along a cold front through Ohio by this afternoon followed by a much stronger and deepening low pressure this afternoon and evening. The deep low pressure system will move north through northeastern Ohio and then northwest to eastern Lower Michigan by Thursday morning. The low will meander over Michigan through Thursday night and then move quickly north by Friday morning. High pressure will move northeast into the Ohio Valley Friday morning and off the New England Coast by Friday evening. A cold front will move east across the area Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Latest radar shows cold front is gradually creeping along over the lakeshore. The front should begin to slow in forward motion and then lift back north as a warm front as the main storm system tracks north over the area. Otherwise, axis of moderate to heavy rain will persist over the western portions of the area and then gradually shift east during the day. Still thinking late afternoon for timing of line of strong to severe thunderstorms to affect extreme eastern portions of the forecast area. Forecast area is in a slight risk over that area. Overall trends holding steady so no major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion .

An upper level shortwave trough with an associated surface low pressure continues to move northeast across the area along a surface cold front at this time. A deep digging upper level trough and associated strong positive vorticity maximum will cause rapid cyclogenesis to occur over the Ohio Valley into northeast Ohio today. This system will deepen rapidly setting up a band of forcing over northwest Ohio for the afternoon and evening. As the surface low moves east, a dry slot will make an attempt to hold strong through much of the day and possibly allow for some sun in the afternoon across the eastern half of the forecast area. This will result in destabilization of the atmosphere just ahead of the cold front and severe weather parameters indicate potential for strong damaging winds as the main threat mainly east of Cleveland to Mansfield in Ohio. Timing will be late afternoon and early evening and severe weather threat begins to wane by sunset as the activity moves into western Pennsylvania this evening. The combination of deep moisture and upper level support over the forecast area and training of showers/thunderstorms, potential exists in the western part of the area to receive some locally high rainfall amounts pushing 4 inches. The highest amounts appear now that they will be confined to any bands of training heavy rain showers/thunderstorms. The axis of heavy rain will eventually work its way east as the surface low pressure system lifts north of the area tonight. Cold front moves well east of the area late tonight and low pressure system will force wrap around precipitation to develop during the day tomorrow. Temperatures today will be aided by warm air advection ahead of the cold front in the eastern half of the area with highs in the middle to upper 70s. Cold air advection in the wake of the cold front tonight will drop temperatures down into the 50s across the area. Tomorrows highs will be in the 50s west to around 60 east. So, the coldest air of the season will arrive in the next 24 hours.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. The storm system which has impacting the region during the mid week will be vertically stacked and centered just north of Lake Erie by Thursday evening. We will continue to see clouds and scattered showers swirling around on the back side of this system. It will finally start to pull away from the region by Friday morning. We may still have a few showers around early in the day, especially near Lake Erie and across northwest PA. Clouds will clear out from west to east Friday and afternoon temperatures will range from the middle 60s over the eastern areas to the lower 70s near NW Ohio. We will have a brief lull in between weather systems Friday night with high pressure near by. There will be another progressive and quick moving upper level trough swinging through the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Clouds will again increase Saturday ahead of a fast moving cold front. We will likely see a band of showers quickly move across the area Saturday afternoon with the frontal passage. Rainfall amounts should be light given the nature of the fast moving system.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Another bubble of high pressure quickly moves in late Saturday night into Sunday morning over the Ohio Valley. Sunday will be the pick day of the weekend with plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s along with light winds. Upper level heights will rise on Monday as the steering flow becomes flatter or more zonal. High pressure still around will bring more sunshine with slightly warmer temperatures into the 70s Monday afternoon. Another fast moving upper level trough and cold front will move through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday with a chance of showers.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/. Cold front is creeping along over the lakeshore at this time and is expected to slow in forward motion as main low pressure system lifts north across the area. Main axis of heavy rain will persist over the west and then gradually shift east during the day into this evening. Mix bag of aviation conditions expected from IFR to VFR across the area. Lowest ceilings and visibilities will take place in the heaviest rain.

Other concern is the potential for the development of strong thunderstorms at Akron-Canton and Youngstown and will keep a mention of variable 20 gust to 40 knots in the tempo group to account for the potential convection.

Outlook . Non-VFR likely with periods of showers and thunderstorms into Thursday. Non-VFR possible with scattered rain showers Friday night through Sunday.

MARINE. Conditions will be deteriorating on Lake Erie today with an active couple of days on the lake for marine interest. A sharp cold front is currently moving across the lake this morning. Southerly winds are ahead of this front but stronger northerly winds are behind this front. Northerly winds on the western and central portions of the lake will increase 20 to 30 knots. The strongest winds are expected near the Lake Erie Islands and western end with Gale conditions of 25 to 35+ knots along with higher gusts. The current Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories on the lake look good and no adjustments are needed with this update. A few waterspouts could be possible today into Thursday with this low pressure system moving over the lake. Winds will slowly shift from a southwesterly direction on Thursday and remain 15 to 25 knots over the lake into Thursday night or early Friday. Winds will relax somewhat by Friday afternoon 10 to 15 knots. Southerly winds return and increase 15 to 20 knots late Friday night into Saturday ahead of the next cold front. The frontal passage will bring westerly winds 10 to 15 knots Saturday night into Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Beach Hazards Statement from 5 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight for OHZ012. Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for OHZ010-011. Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009- 017>019-027-028. Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ003-007- 009. Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ003-007-009. PA . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142>144-162>164. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ145>147.

SYNOPSIS . Lombardy NEAR TERM . Lombardy SHORT TERM . Griffin LONG TERM . Griffin AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . Griffin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 3 mi49 min S 7 G 12
45167 5 mi47 min 18 G 21 70°F 71°F2 ft
NREP1 15 mi97 min S 19 G 27
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 44 mi67 min SSE 9.9 G 20 67°F 1012.6 hPa (-2.5)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 53 mi97 min SSE 7 G 11

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA9 mi16 minSSE 14 G 2210.00 miOvercast68°F62°F81%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE11S11SE12SE10S8SE7SE8S11S7SE9SE6SE6SE9SE16
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE7N7NE9NE8N11NE10NE7NE8NE6E4CalmCalmS5CalmS8S10S10S10S10S11SE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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