Friday, September24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Palenville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 6:51PM Friday September 24, 2021 12:03 AM EDT (04:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:45PMMoonset 10:17AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1000 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt Friday...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers. Chance of tstms late this evening, then scattered tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and scattered tstms in the morning.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1000 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves across late tonight into Friday. High pressure will then build in behind the front late Friday into Saturday. High pressure remains in control through Monday. A cold front is possible on Tue.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palenville, NY
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location: 42.18, -73.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 240236 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1036 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move gradually across the region tonight into early Friday morning bringing a widespread rainfall to the area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also occur producing bursts of heavy rainfall. Showers will taper off Friday morning with a cooler and drier air mass building in for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. UPDATE. Forecast on track as bands of moderate to locally heavy rain continue to gradually push eastward into eastern New York and southwest New England. It will still take a few more hours for the rain to reach southern VT. While there have been some small areas of intense rain, overall threat for flooding has been low thus far. Greatest amount of rain this evening was 1.80" at the Beacon NY Mesonet, most of which fell in 1 hour. This prompted the issuance of a Flood Advisory for parts of the mid Hudson Valley, but most other areas have seen lesser rainfall rates mainly around 0.50" to 0.75" per hour. Threat for convection with strong winds has decreased as the evening progressed. Main concern overnight will be locally heavy rainfall and urban/poor drainage flooding.

PREVIOUS[0753]. Bands of heavy rain tracking from south to north across mainly the western half of the area early this evening. Most of the moderate/heavy rain bands have remained west of the Hudson Valley. Radar trends and latest CAMs indicate a gradual eastward progression of the overall rain shield, with individual cells still expected to track from south to north. Embedded convective elements will continue to result in enhanced rainfall rates around 1 inch/hour, but should generally not last more than 30-60 minutes over a given area unless re- development and/or training occurs.

Will continue to monitor trends, but as of 750 PM no flood related advisories or warnings have been issued. Isolated thunderstorms have been noted, but are generally not lasting long due to limited instability. Will have to watch for some potentially stronger storms developing over Dutchess/Litchfield Counties where SPS Mesoanalysis indicating MLCAPE around 500 J/Kg and effect shear of 40 kt. Farther north across the rest of the area MLCAPE values are lower, although a brief/rogue stronger wind gust cannot be ruled out.

Flash Flood Watch remains in in effect for Ulster, Greene, Columbia and Dutchess counties from 5 pm today through 11 am Friday.

Flash Flood Watch was expanded and is in effect for Berkshire and Litchfield counties from midnight to Noon Friday.

Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall will occur as a cold front moves gradually across the region tonight. The boundary is currently located to our west across central NY and PA. Embedded thunderstorms are occurring across much of NJ this afternoon. The boundary will be slow to move across the region as the upper level low over the Great Lakes region lift slowly northward and the mid and upper level trough turns negatively tilted. Precipitable water values along and ahead of the front are 1.5 to 1.75 inches 1-2 STDEVS above normal. One to 3 inches of rainfall is expected with locally higher amounts possible. Hourly rainfall rates could reach 1/2 to 1 inch an hour with some orographic enhancements off the east/southeast Catskills. Greatest concern for isolated to scattered flash flooding is over the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern and central Taconics, the Berkshires and Litchfield County. The Weather Prediction Center did expand the Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall across the local area.

Low-level shear is very strong and we will have to monitor for some gusty winds or an isolated tornado. The areas at risk are basically south of I-90 where the Storm Prediction Center has its Marginal Risk.

It will mild and muggy tonight ahead of the boundary with temperatures and dew points beginning to drop in its wake. Expecting lows mainly in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Improving conditions with showers tapering off mainly in the morning but not until afternoon for western New England. High pressure will build in at the surface in the wake of the boundary while aloft an upper level low drops southward out of central Canada. This will place our region under southwest as we head into the weekend. Looking at fair weather Friday night and Saturday with seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity. Chances for showers will begin to return Saturday night ahead of the trough and its associated cold front.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Large upper level trough will be moving southern Canada for Sunday into the start of next week. Some models (such as the 12z ECMWF) show this trough closing off as it moves from north of the Great Lakes on Sunday towards Atlantic Canada by Tuesday or Wednesday. Models also suggest a piece of the trough may hang back and linger over the Northeast through the middle of next week, so heights/temps aloft will probably remain below normal into Wednesday or Thursday as well. With the trough nearby, there may be a few passing rain showers, especially for northern areas. The best chance will probably be on Sunday, as the trough axis moves across the forecast area. Still, the dynamics will be pretty far north and moisture is limited, so will keep POPs to just slight to low CHC for now for Sunday and mainly slight chc into next week. Skies will vary from partly to mostly cloudy, with the highest cloud cover for northern and high terrain areas.

Despite the trough, daytime temps should still get close to seasonable values, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for valley areas, since there should be some sunshine each day. Overnight lows will remain in the mid 40s to mid 50s, so no worries for any frost just yet.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Bands of moderate to heavy will slowly move eastward across the region tonight into Friday morning. The bulk of the rain has generally remained west of the TAF sites into early this evening, but radar trends indicate the rain will overspread the terminals through the evening hours and persist through the night. Conditions will quickly deteriorate to MVFR, with occasional periods of IFR likely within any persistent areas of moderate/heavy rain.

The rain bands are finally expected to move east of the terminals after 12Z Friday as a cold front pushes through. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR thereafter as drier air moves in from the west.

Low level wind shear will persist through the evening, with a 40-45 kt jet around 2000 ft AGL moving overhead. LLWS should dissipate overnight as the strongest winds aloft move off to the east.

Surface winds will be southeast around 8-12 kt with some occasional gusts near 20 kt, becoming westerly on Friday in wake of the cold front passage.

Outlook .

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. A widespread wetting rainfall this be occurring this evening into tonight, with showers winding down tomorrow morning. After RH values near 100 percent tonight, RH values will lower to 50 to 60 percent on Friday afternoon. South to southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph this evening with become south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight and eventually switch to the west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph on Friday. Although it will be dry, RH values will remain above 50 percent on Saturday with light winds.

HYDROLOGY. Slow moving frontal boundary is starting to bring bands of showers into the region. These showers will continue through this evening and into tonight. Showers should be ending from west to east on Friday morning, as the front finally pushes across the area. Some of the rainfall will be locally heavy, especially for southern and high terrain areas. Much of the area is in a marginal to slight risk for flash flooding and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson valley, the southern and central Taconics, Berkshires and northwestern Connecticut. Rainfall rates may exceed one half inch per hour at times and total rainfall amounts will be ranging from 1 to 3 inches across the HSA. Some locally higher totals can't be ruled out, especially over the high terrain of the eastern Catskills, thanks to upslope flow locally enhancing rainfall.

The rainfall may allow for sharp rises on small streams and creeks. Isolated to scattered flash flooding will be possible, especially over the watch area. Urban, poor drainage and low lying areas will be susceptible to flooding as well, especially for late this evening. Larger and main stem rivers will see rises in response to the runoff from this rainfall, but are expected to remain below flood stage.

Dry weather will return for later Friday and into Saturday and just a few passing light rain showers are expected for Sunday into next week. This should allow for any river rises to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for CTZ001-013. NY . Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NYZ058>061- 063>066. MA . Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for MAZ001-025. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frugis NEAR TERM . IAA/JPV SHORT TERM . IAA/Wasula LONG TERM . Frugis AVIATION . JPV FIRE WEATHER . Frugis HYDROLOGY . Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 12 mi94 min S 1 65°F 1014 hPa64°F
TKPN6 12 mi46 min S 7 G 11 65°F 73°F1014.1 hPa63°F
NPXN6 24 mi94 min S 5.1 66°F 1015 hPa64°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 81 mi46 min SSE 19 G 25 74°F 76°F1013.8 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 84 mi46 min SSE 13 G 20 75°F 74°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY38 mi71 minESE 310.00 miOvercast65°F63°F93%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE7SE6S6SW754S3SE4SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Catskill, Hudson River, New York
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Catskill
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:35 AM EDT     4.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:00 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:51 PM EDT     4.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.81.92.93.644.13.72.91.91.10.50.30.71.72.93.74.14.343.42.51.61

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:44 AM EDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:06 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:00 PM EDT     4.37 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:44 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.82.93.64.14.23.83.12.11.20.60.30.61.62.83.74.24.44.23.62.71.81.10.6

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