Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Highland Park, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:47PM Sunday January 16, 2022 3:56 AM CST (09:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:26PMMoonset 7:39AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 300 Am Cst Sun Jan 16 2022
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday afternoon...
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south by mid morning, then becoming southwest this afternoon. Slight chance of snow near Sunset. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Chance of snow in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt easing to 15 to 20 kt late in the day. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Wave forecast is for ice free areas
LMZ740 Expires:202201161630;;444371 FZUS53 KLOT 160900 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 300 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>743-161630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland Park, IL
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location: 42.18, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 160841 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 241 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

SHORT TERM. Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

Through Monday .

As we start the third full week of 2022, the short term forecast note of interest is the chance for a brief period of mainly light snow later this afternoon into early to mid evening. While still not certain it will snow, if it were to, our confidence is on the upper half of the spectrum that impacts would be akin to that of Friday evening when a light coating of snow occurred with temperatures similarly in the lower 20s, though this time would not be as widespread.

A chilly morning for the area with a 1024 mb high pressure ridge sliding through the region. Surface temperatures in the single digits in outlying locations will be able to climb some with full sun into mid morning but then clouds will thicken. With a very limited time of warm advection on southwest winds, highs only look to reach the 25 to 30 range for most, probably even falling a smidge shy of that in parts of north central Illinois where the most persistent residual snow cover is.

The upstream upper trough of interest is located over Manitoba and is dropping quickly southeastward as seen via large scale GOES-16 water vapor imagery. An upper jet maximum of 120+ kt progressing into the Upper Midwest this afternoon will interact with this wave to deepen it into the western Great Lakes region by this evening. Eventually this phases with the strong closed low that is over the Lower Mississippi Valley this morning to produce an impressive snow system up the Appalachians into Martin Luther King Jr Day. While the synoptic scale forcing for the incoming wave for our area is appreciable, a failure mode for snow is the lack of deep layer moisture due to an inherent dry air mass and the quick wave progression limiting time to saturate. It also is on a trajectory into the area that does not have a period of warm advection aloft nor is it supportive of any frontogenesis. So all in all with this, it's tough to go "Snow Likely" in the forecast even though it is probable some snow occurs in some places of the forecast area where saturation can deepen enough. Model guidance is quite dispersive on where it has QPF, but solutions are almost entirely very low (<0.05 in.)

The period of saturation in the mid-levels, which aligns well with the dendritic growth zone, is ahead of the vorticity center late this afternoon into early evening. This also is an area where the mid-level lapse rates are steep because of cold shot near 500 mb, with 700 to 500 lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km. The low-levels during these first few hours are quite dry though, but if they were to be overcome there could be a "burst" of snow. If this were to unfold, it seems a little more favored in north central Illinois toward the western suburbs during the 4 to 7 PM period. The "worst case" scenario is that a little over an inch occurs in a quick period with this. The most likely scenario is that saturation in the vertical struggles throughout the short wave digging into the region, and some light snow occurs off and on both temporally and spatially into the evening. Behind the mid- level moisture during the mid to late evening, cannot rule out spots of freezing drizzle, but more likely any precipitation will shut off or just be "low quality" flurries.

The system cold front will move through during the evening turning winds westerly and then gusty northwesterly going into the overnight and persisting through midday Monday. Some gusts to 25 to possibly 30 mph are likely to start Monday, which will have wind chills down into the single digits. Some sun is expected on Monday, which will help temperatures recover some, especially because the magnitude of cold advection behind this is not particularly pronounced for January. Have highs forecast in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The cold advection off the deck will be enough for lake effect clouds to hold solid into far northwest Indiana on Monday, and probably at least flurries if not light lake effect snow for northern and eastern Porter County.

MTF

LONG TERM. Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

Monday night through Saturday .

The long term forecast period will start off with somewhat mild temperatures for this time of year on Tuesday as a clipper tracking to our north turns surface winds southerly, allowing for warm advection to usher in some warmer temperatures into our forecast area. Temperatures may climb into the 40s in some spots during the afternoon and won't fall off much until late in the night once a cold front associated with the clipper barrels through the region and causes temperatures to plummet. Wednesday's high temperatures look like they will officially end up in the 30s, but they will likely occur at midnight or shortly thereafter as cold advection behind the front continues throughout the course of the day with blustery northwest winds causing temperatures to fall into the 20s and teens by the afternoon. Overnight into Thursday morning, most locations will see temperatures reach the single digits, and some below zero readings will likely be witnessed in parts of interior northern Illinois. With sustained northwest winds remaining around 10-15 mph for the most part, minimum overnight wind chills are expected to range from 0 C to as low as -20 C across the CWA. The northwest winds will persist throughout the day on Thursday and prevent Thursday's highs from rebounding much with most locations looking like they will struggle to reach the 20 degree mark. The cold daytime highs will set the stage for another chilly night and morning with Friday morning's low temperatures likely falling to readings that will be similar to Thursday morning's lows, possibly even a smidge cooler. Winds will be a bit lighter by this point, but sub-zero wind chills look to be a good bet to be seen again nevertheless. Thereafter, it appears that there will be a slight warming trend into the weekend, but temperatures are still favored to remain below normal during this time.

Have only two low-end PoP mentions in the going forecast for the extended period. The first of these mentions is for lake effect snow potential Wednesday night into Thursday for Porter County, Indiana. Lake effect parameters appear to be mostly favorable for supporting some lake effect snow showers during this time frame, but with low-level flow likely to be oriented more northwesterly than northerly, envision that this potential is more likely to be realized in southwest Michigan and maybe La Porte County, Indiana with a lower chance for some of the lake effect snow grazing the far northern part of Porter County. The second chance for precipitation would come sometime over the weekend with some signs pointing towards a seemingly weak system producing precipitation somewhere in the Great Lakes region on Saturday and/or Sunday. There is still a quite a large spread in ensemble guidance over where and when precipitation may occur (and whether it will even materialize at all) so didn't stray from the low-end PoPs spit out by the NBM.

Ogorek

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Aviation Forecast Concerns:

* Potential for light snow or flurries Sunday evening.

* MVFR ceilings Sunday night.

* Blustery northwest winds with gusts near 20 kts late Sunday night.

Aviation weather remains quiet overnight into the daytime Sunday. Weak surface high pressure ridge across IA-WI-MI will drift south across the area overnight, allowing for light/variable winds and generally clear skies. Some MVFR lake-effect stratocu lingers north of the terminals across southeast WI, but should not be a factor for the local terminals.

Surface ridge axis settles south of the terminals on Sunday, with modest southwest winds developing. Attention then remains on an approaching mid-level disturbance which will move into the area late Sunday/Sunday evening. This system will initially bring increasing high/mid clouds during the afternoon, with some potential for some light snow or flurries by evening. Latest 00Z model runs continue to indicate this system will be somewhat moisture-starved in the low levels as it moves into a dry arctic air mass across the region. Questions remain as to just how much light snow of any impact will develop, though at least some flurries are likely. Period of greatest potential for any light snow that might impact visibility or produce some very minor accumulations would be during the evening, but confidence in any widespread MVFR/IFR visibilities is low. Guidance is in decent agreement in maintaining some lingering MVFR ceilings into the overnight hours, and few stray flurries can't be ruled out.

The surface cold front associated with this disturbance will move through during the early evening hours, shifting winds to the west-northwest. Winds look to become more true northwest overnight while becoming blustery with gusts near 20 kt late.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi117 min SW 8G14 23°F
OKSI2 21 mi117 min E 6G11 22°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 22 mi37 min SSE 11G14 20°F 15°F
CNII2 25 mi27 min SE 5.1G11 19°F 13°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 28 mi57 min WSW 7G9.9 19°F 1021.3 hPa (-2.4)
JAKI2 30 mi117 min SSE 6G8.9 20°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 34 mi57 min ESE 8G9.9 18°F 1019.8 hPa (-3.1)11°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last 24 hrNE14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL7 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair12°F7°F80%1022.9 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL15 mi66 minS 310.00 miFair16°F8°F71%1021.9 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL17 mi62 minW 410.00 miFair16°F11°F80%1023.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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N7NE5NE50000NW3000
1 day agoNE8
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2 days agoNE4N6N6N6NW5NW5N5N7N6N500E3SE30000N6N13N10N9
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G18

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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