Monday, October18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:25PM Monday October 18, 2021 1:49 PM PDT (20:49 UTC) Moonrise 4:59PMMoonset 4:19AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 859 Am Pdt Mon Oct 18 2021
.gale warning in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night...
Today..NW wind 10 to 15 kt...easing to 5 kt late afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 kt...backing to W late afternoon. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning...becoming 2 ft or less. SWell nw 7 to 9 ft at 12 seconds.
Tonight..S wind 5 kt...backing to se 5 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, se wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell W 6 to 8 ft at 11 seconds.
Tue..S wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt late in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, se wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to S 15 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. W swell 5 ft at 11 seconds...shifting to the nw 3 to 4 ft at 13 seconds in the afternoon.
Tue night..S wind 20 to 25 kt...rising to 30 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, S wind 15 to 20 kt...becoming 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 10 to 13 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft. Rain.
Wed..S wind 15 to 25 kt...easing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 10 to 13 ft...subsiding to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. SWell W 6 to 7 ft...building to W 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 15 kt northern portion and S 5 to 15 kt brookings southward. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. SWell W 9 to 10 ft... Subsiding to W 8 ft and S 6 to 7 ft after midnight. Chance of rain.
Thu..S wind 20 kt...rising to 25 kt in the afternoon and evening, then...becoming sw 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 6 ft...building to 8 to 9 ft in the afternoon and evening, then... Subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Mixed swell W 7 ft and S 6 ft... Building to W 12 ft.
Fri..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 14 ft.
PZZ300 859 Am Pdt Mon Oct 18 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Moderate west-northwest swell will build through this afternoon. Southerly winds begin to increase late tonight and early Tuesday morning ahead of a very strong cold front. Gales are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night with seas becoming very high and very steep. Another very strong system is likely to follow around Thursday. The stormy pattern looks to continue this weekend and into at least early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, OR
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location: 42.2, -122.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 181758 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1058 AM PDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

DISCUSSION. Low pressure's heading south and east into Nevada this morning, and it left behind a half inch of rain at the coast, in Northern California, and in the foothills and high terrain of the Cascades. Less amounts elsewhere. Lingering precipitation is wrapping around the low in Modoc and Lake Counties this morning, and this will diminish this afternoon. A Winter Weather Advisory continues until 11am for Cedar Pass on Highway 299 in Modoc County. Road temperatures should warm enough by then to limit any impacts afterward.

Today will be focused on identifying and communicating the expected weather impacts from the upcoming two fronts, which look quite windy as southerly flow becomes strong. These winds will be focused late Tue into Wed morning and again Thu morning into Thu night. Snow levels will be much higher with these systems, so we're not expected snow impacts over mountain passes. Please see the previous forecast discussion for more details on the active weather pattern. Keene

AVIATION. 18/18Z TAFs . Ceilings are gradually improving as the upper low departs and weak high pressure builds in. Stratus remains persistent at North Bend, portions of the Coquille and Umpqua Basin, but this should gradually burn off with VFR ceilings expected between 21-22z. Elsewhere VFR ceilings re expected through this evening, however the terrain is expected to remain partly obscured until at least 21z

Tonight, model soundings are somewhat surprisingly devoid of low- level moisture given recent rainfall. However some recent guidance hints at low stratus with IFR ceilings developing towards daybreak Tuesday in the Coquille, Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg and North Bend which could be a result of a later arrival of mid and high clouds. To lean on the side of caution, decided to introduced the lower conditions for those TAF sites. Confidence is not as high to add the lower conditions at Medford, but we'll have later shifts take another look at this.

Skies should clear enough over the East Side this evening to allow for good radiational cooling and the potential for fog development in some of the lower valleys. -Petrucelli

MARINE. Updated 230 AM PDT Monday, 18 October 2021 . Moderate northwest swell will build through this afternoon. A peak of around 9 ft at 12 seconds is expected, just shy of Small Craft Advisory criteria. Seas diminish tonight, but southerly winds will increase late tonight and early Tuesday morning ahead of a very strong cold front. Gales are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night with seas becoming very high and very steep and hazardous. Some storm force wind gusts are possible beyond 5 nm from shore at peak intensity Tuesday night. Seas are forecast to peak at 18 to 23 ft on Tuesday night. Another very strong frontal system is likely to follow around Thursday.

The stormy pattern looks to continue this weekend and into at least eartly next week. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 510 AM PDT Mon Oct 18 2021/

DISCUSSION . Radar and satellite are showing a distinct circulation that has developed as the southern portion of the upper level low has cut off. Although this has added a slight wrinkle into the forecast, the main impacts will remain largely unchanged. Showers are ongoing across much of the area with less showers at the coast and coast range and more widespread showers from Jackson County eastward. Overall, this low will exit the area later today, and the precipitation should end in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain chilly in most places, and overnight lows being somewhat below normal. But no frost or freeze concerns are expected for areas still experiencing what is left of their growing seasons.

The area of high pressure builds in today, and shifts eastward tonight ahead of the next front that arrives Tuesday evening. Ensembles are settling on more of an eastward progression allowing for a southerly flow pattern that favors upslope precipitation in the Mt. Shasta area, and possibly Ashland with the north-south oriented valleys seeing considerable downslope evaporation. Have moved toward this development in the forecast. Expect snow levels to be around 5500 to 6000 feet, except near Mt. Shasta where the upslope enhanced precipitation may drive down snow levels to near 4000 feet. Although some snow accumulations are expected in the mountains, it is unlikely that this system will provide much in terms of impacts due to snow.

The other part of this is that many of our north-south oriented valleys will see some significant winds. Our ensemble tables show southerly winds in the 99th percentile range at low levels for this time period, so expect breezy to gusty Shasta valley winds, and strong south winds along ridgetops east of the Cascades.

The showery pattern will continue into Wednesday evening, particularly for the Mt. Shasta area in northern California with the rest of the area seeing a bit of a break. After that brief break, flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of the next system that is set to arrive Thursday.

This front will be more like a traditional atmospheric river coming in on Thursday focusing precipitation along the coast Range during the day. The upper level low then catches up to the initial front driving flow to be more southerly once again Thursday night. This flow shift will then move to favor northern California with additional wind, snow, and rainfall concerns with additional downsloping in the north-south oriented valleys.

The next system appears follows on the heels, and arrives during the weekend. This system will be more zonally inclined which will favor the Cascades and Coast range of Oregon for precipitation, and possibly some additional winds on the east side. This system looks to have another upper level low come through the area and could have prolonged periods of precipitation with it. Should this forecast verify as depicted on the models, this would move October to an above average precipitation for the month, and be a great start for the new Water Year. While this will not end our drought, this could start to lessen it and put a dent in it. Please stay tuned to the forecast for additional impacts. -Schaaf

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ031.

CA . Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ085.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356. Gale Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ370-376. Gale Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 84 mi49 min S 6G7 51°F 52°F1017.8 hPa (+0.4)
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 92 mi29 min S 5.8G9.7 52°F1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR15 mi56 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F39°F53%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13NW15
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1 day agoW30S300S5S6SW30N40W3SE300SE3SW30SE3000NW5NW10
2 days ago0000W3S5S6S40W30SE3000000000000

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:51 AM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:26 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:33 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:09 AM PDT     6.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:25 PM PDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:04 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:24 PM PDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:47 AM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:26 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:08 AM PDT     6.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:21 PM PDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:04 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:30 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:23 PM PDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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