Thursday, October28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Athens, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:56PM Thursday October 28, 2021 4:20 PM EDT (20:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:51PMMoonset 2:32PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 405 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through late Friday night...
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 405 Pm Edt Thu Oct 28 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure centered north of the area will be in control tonight. Low pressure approaches on Friday and impacts the region Friday night through Saturday. Low pressure exits the area on Sunday, followed by high pressure building in through midweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Athens, NY
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location: 42.24, -73.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 281953 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 353 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry and tranquil weather conditions will continue into Friday. Another storm system will bring another round of widespread rainfall to the area late Friday into the weekend. Drier weather conditions are expected to return to the region early next week. However the weather pattern could remain active with additional chances for precipitation next week. A downtrend in temperatures will take place going into the first week of November amid a large scale weather pattern change.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Later on tonight, there is the potential for some low-level stratus and/or patchy fog/frost to develop given the clear to mostly clear skies, light winds, coupled with abundant low-level moisture. Overnight lows tonight will be in the mid 30s along the river valleys (upper 20s to lower 30s higher elevations).

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. All eyes during the short-term period will be on a double-barreled low pressure system that bring the forecast area another round of widespread rainfall.

Global forecast models/ensembles continue to advertise an occluding double-barreled low pressure system tracking from the Missouri Valley into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians during the day on Friday. This mid-latitude cyclone will be associated with a potent ~549 mb mid-upper level trough. Ahead of this storm system, winds will develop over the forecast area out of the east-southeast warm air advection (waa), moisture advection, and low-level convergence will begin. This process will allow for clouds to gradually increase over the area during the day on Friday.

As isentropic lifting and low-level convergence increase, rain is expected to overspread the the forecast area from the southwest to northeast Friday night. The double-barreled low pressure system is then expected to track northeast from the central Appalachians/mid- Atlantic region towards the Northeast U.S. during the day on Saturday. By Saturday evening, the primary low associated with the triple point will be centered just off the coast of Long Island/southern New England with a secondary low center over Pennsylvania.

With the storm system expected to become a closed low/open wave, but still negatively tilted, rainfall will linger through the day on Saturday and into the day on Sunday. During this timeframe, the area will be placed on the left exit region of a 100-120 kt jet. However, the placement of the jet (well to our east) the strongest upper air dynamics will be placed to our east. Additionally, the placement of the primary surface low will also be well to our east. Given the synoptic setup, the heaviest rain rates will fall Friday night into Saturday in association with a narrow corridor of PWAT values 1-2 STDEVS above normal. This is the time where we should see moderate to perhaps brief heavy rain rates. Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday, rain rates will lessen with the greatest forcing/dynamics and PWAT values past our area. Rain should be on the light to moderate side with the open wave overhead. Rain should move out of the area from southwest to northeast during the day on Sunday. Using the NBM, QPF totals are ranging between 0.75-1.70" with locally higher amounts, particularly over the eastern Catskills and Taconics. QPF and impacts are expected to be less compared to the previous storm system. However, giving the saturated/wet antecedent conditions including high river levels, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed as of this update a 'Marginal Risk' for Excessive Rainfall Day 2 across a zone stretching from southern Schoharie southeastward into the eastern Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley and northwestern CT. For Day 3 the 'Marginal' threat encompasses more of our area from the eastern Catskills to the Capital District into western New England.

Overall, we'll see temperatures trend slightly higher each day with anomalies averaging out near normal levels during the period. High temperatures on Friday will be in the mid 50s along the river valleys (upper 40s to lower 50s higher terrain). On Saturday, highs will be mid to upper 50s along the river valleys (upper 40s to lower 50s higher elevations). On Sunday, highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s along the river valleys (upper 40s to mid 50s higher elevations). Friday night, overnight lows will be in the mid 40s (upper 30s to lower 40s higher elevations). Saturday night, lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s along the river valleys (mid 40s higher elevations).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The long term period will feature a trend toward slightly below normal temps, with the greatest anomalies for daytime highs. A few disturbances may bring rain showers to valleys, and rain/snow showers across higher terrain areas Tuesday; then a possibility for a steadier period of precipitation for Thursday/Thursday night.

Initially, chilly cyclonic flow may bring some lake enhanced rain showers to the SW Adirondacks Sunday night, otherwise mainly dry for Monday-Monday night. Low temps Monday morning in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with Monday highs 55-60 in valleys, and 40s across higher terrain. Lows Tuesday morning mainly in the 30s.

An upper level disturbance and reinforcing cold front should pass across the region Tuesday or Tuesday evening, bringing some clouds and scattered showers of rain in valleys, and perhaps rain/snow across higher terrain areas. In the wake of this disturbance, some lake enhanced/effect rain/snow showers will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday 50-55 in valleys, and upper 30s to mid 40s across higher elevations. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights in the 30s, although some 20s are possible in some higher elevations Wednesday night.

Then for Thursday, greater degree of uncertainty, as some 12Z/28 GEFs members and the deterministic GFS indicate a possible coastal low developing somewhere near the northern middle Atlantic coastline, with other GEFs members developing any low farther south and east. The 12Z/ECMWF indicates a coastal low developing as well, although is slower and after this time period (Friday into Friday night).

At this time, will keep the blended PoPs (NBM) which are within the chance range for this time period. Perhaps most interesting are the suggested thermal profiles associated with any storm system, with the 12Z/GFS suggesting enough cold air (H850 and H925 below 0C) for some snow to occur, at least for higher elevations, and perhaps even to the valley floor. The ECMWF is warmer. The bottom line is, should steadier precipitation occur Thursday-Thursday night, there is a possibility that at least some higher elevations witness the first snowfall of the season, with a non-zero possibility that even some valley areas see some snow.

As for temperatures, current forecast max temps for Thursday are in the 40s to around 50 in valleys, with mid 30s to lower/mid 40s across higher elevations. However, should widespread steadier precipitation occur, much cooler max temps (30s for higher elevations, and upper 30s to mid 40s for valley areas) would be possible. Overnight lows mainly in the 30s, except possibly some 20s for higher terrain areas.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. MVFR ceilings continue at ALB with VFR ceilings temporarily dropping to MVFR at GFL as of 18 UTC/28 due to lingering moisture trapped underneath a low level inversion. Guidance suggests that this ceiling should erode away through 21 UTC and therefore have included TEMPO groups to show improvement to VFR. VFR ceilings this early evening should degrade at ALB and especially GFL by 03 - 06 UTC where MVFR ceilings return to ALB with either MVFR ceilings or fog potentially developing at GFL. Leaning more fog at GFL given latest guidance with visibilities and ceilings become IFR.

At PSF and POU, VFR conditions this afternoon and evening are expected to degrade to MVFR status by 03 - 06 UTC. However, there are hints that breaks of VFR ceilings are expected at times as high pressure becomes established across the Canadian Maritimes.

Light north-northeast winds today stay at or less than 5 kts before shifting to the east-northeast tonight increasing to 5 - 8kts at times, mainly at PSF and POU. Winds become primarily easterly tomorrow and remain sustained 5 - 8 kts at PSF and POU while GFL and ALB remain under 5kts.

Outlook .

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday: High Operational Impact Definite SHRA. RA. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. No fire weather issues anticipated over the next few days. Dry and tranquil weather conditions will continue into Friday. Another storm system will bring another round of widespread rainfall to the area late Friday into the weekend. Drier weather conditions are expected to return to the region early next week. However the weather pattern could remain active with additional chances for precipitation next week. A downtrend in temperatures will take place going into the first week of November amid a large scale weather pattern change.

Tonight, maximum relative humidity values will range between 90- 100%. On Friday, min relative humidity values will range between 40- 75% with the highest values located over northwestern CT and the lowest values located over the SW ADKs. Friday night, max relative humidity values will range between 90-100%. Saturday, min relative humidity values will range between 80-100%. Saturday night, max relative humidity values will range between 95-100%.

Tonight, winds will be light and variable. Friday, winds will pick up out of the east at 5-10 kts. Friday night, winds will be out of the east-northeast at 5-15 kts with the highest speeds over the higher elevations. Winds could gust as high as 20-25 kts. Saturday, easterly winds will be 5-10 kts with gust as high as 15 kts. Saturday night, winds will become light and variable.

HYDROLOGY. The flood warning for the Schoharie Creek at Burtonsville was cancelled as river levels dropped below flood stage this morning.

After a brief period of dry weather today through Friday afternoon, another system may bring periods of rain late Friday into next weekend. Depending on coverage and amount of rainfall, additional hydro concerns are possible as rivers and streams will be running high from the rainfall early this week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Evbuoma NEAR TERM . Evbuoma SHORT TERM . Evbuoma LONG TERM . KL AVIATION . Speciale FIRE WEATHER . Evbuoma HYDROLOGY . Evbuoma/NAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 16 mi51 min SW 1.9 55°F 1013 hPa44°F
TKPN6 17 mi51 min NNW 2.9G5.1 55°F 57°F1014.1 hPa43°F
NPXN6 29 mi51 min NW 7 55°F 1015 hPa44°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 81 mi51 min E 4.1G8.9 56°F 64°F1013.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 82 mi51 min NE 8G9.9 56°F 63°F1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA31 mi27 minWSW 310.00 miFair56°F39°F53%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPSF

Wind History from PSF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW5NW6W5W6W5W3SW4SW5SW6W3W30NW40000NE3N3NE440W3
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Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Hudson
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:40 AM EDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:27 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:52 PM EDT     1.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 05:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:03 PM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York
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Coxsackie
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:19 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:16 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Thu -- 04:24 PM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:36 PM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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