Friday, October15, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lincoln Park, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 6:52PM Friday October 15, 2021 10:29 PM EDT (02:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:05PMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0088.000000t0000z-211014t2330z/ 652 Pm Edt Thu Oct 14 2021
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4181 8349 4195 8337 4196 8328 4225 8318 4232 8312 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4178 8334 time...mot...loc 2251z 256deg 28kt 4235 8301 4192 8315
LCZ423 Expires:202110142302;;190090 FZUS73 KDTX 142252 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 652 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 LCZ423-LEZ444-142302-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincoln Park, MI
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location: 42.24, -83.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 152345 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 745 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

AVIATION.

An increase in jet exit region dynamics with absolute increase in thetae has led to a well organized area of midlevel frontogenesis rain across western Lower Michigan early this evening. Model data moves this area of widespread rain to the north and eastward with time this evening. Another area of synoptic scale forcing for ascent will arrive over Southeast Michigan after 06Z tonight as strong PV anomaly ejects northeastward out of the trough base over Missouri and takes a direct shot at southeast Michigan. A lot happens to the thermodynamic environment this evening as a good amount of cold advection is forecasted between 2.0 and 10.0 kft agl. Lapse rates steepen considerably in the lower troposphere knocking out the low column inversion. Will probably see cloud trends improve into VFR this evening with loss of the strong static stability. Rain activity then fills back in overhead as strong ageostrophic response to dcva steepens the cold front surface. Bulk of data supports VFR rain shower activity tonight with differential near surface cold advection supporting some shallow convective instability and MVFR to potential pockets of IFR after 09Z. Post frontal northwest flow will support a well mixed boundary layer and VFR clouds Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* High in ceilings at or below 5000 feet early this evening and late tonight and Saturday. Low confidence during the mid to late evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 422 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

DISCUSSION .

Showers have thinned considerably across Southeast Michigan this afternoon. Recent models have remain overly aggressive with respect to near-term coverage, thus hedged down and removed all instances of categorical PoPs. As expected, lightning activity has been sparse, but non-zero as a couple strikes cropped up earlier near Dundee. Still possible to see a couple additional isolated strikes between now and 00Z given small amount of elevated instability near the Western Erie and Detroit River communities. Responsible surface low currently resides southeast of Monroe and will continue tracking northeast this evening and overnight. A lull in activity arises late evening before deformation-forced showers lift through late tonight. Overnight lows drop into the upper 40s to low 50s with NW surface wind shift.

Large upper trough progresses eastward Saturday morning with the axis pivoting over Lower Michigan. Notable decrease in H8 temps as the thermal trough works into the Great Lakes with morning values near 10C collapsing to almost 0C by the evening hours. It will take some time for the mid and upper levels to veer northwesterly and mirror the lower troposphere before deep-layer CAA ensues. Expect a sufficiently cooled boundary layer with high temperatures stuck in the mid-upper 50s, a solid 4-7 degrees below climatological normals. Although lapse rates will be steep in the lowest 5 kft (approaching dry adiabatic), saturation layer appears very shallow during the afternoon limiting precipitation to more virga than rain with anything that taps into shallow moisture channel off the warm waters of Lake Michigan. Did leave a period of Slight Chance PoPs for any brief showers that get going within the interior while Lake Huron fetch will suffice for slightly broader activity along the eastern Thumb. Inherited gusts look reasonable given only minor weakening trend from the crossing LLJ. Daytime stratocumulus scatter out after midnight facilitating several hours of nocturnal cooling guiding overnight lows into the 40s. A few inland areas to the north could briefly dip below 40F.

Heights begin to rebound on Sunday as the back edge of the trough arrives. Upper level confluence limits synoptic scale ascent and forecast soundings depict a column largely devoid of moisture. There will be a few afternoon clouds once the PBL matures which also supports renewed breeziness until the evening hours under uniform northwest flow. Amplified upstream ridge atop The Rockies will begin to shear out as Pacific NW PV anomaly intercepts the western edge. Dry and moderating conditions locally with minimal wind Monday through Wednesday before the next wave takes aim at Lower Michigan. Unsettled conditions on Thursday with stacked low followed by a chillier weekend.

MARINE .

A low pressure system over Lake Erie is moving along a frontal boundary stretching across the southern portions of Lake Erie and southwest into Indiana. This system is producing widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the central Great Lakes with a greater concentration of activity across Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into early Saturday as the main upper trough axis and stronger cold front moves across the western and central Great Lakes. There will be a much greater lake response behind this front as much cooler air filters into the region. The cold air moving over the relatively warmer waters will bring a chance for waterspouts over the weekend. Winds will also increase with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots likely across Lake Huron Saturday. Gusts will be around 25 to 30 knots. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all marine zones for Saturday.

HYDROLOGY .

An area of low pressure passes this evening with ample supply of moisture. While most of the heaviest showers remain just to the east, downpours are possible through this evening followed by several rounds of lighter showers late tonight. Total additional rainfall through Saturday morning is forecast to range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches. The long duration and weaker rainfall rates minimize impacts to localized ponding along roadways, poor drainage, and low- lying areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ444.



AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . AA HYDROLOGY . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 23 mi90 min NNW 8.9G12 58°F 1009.5 hPa (+0.7)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 29 mi90 min N 19G22 60°F
45147 - Lake St Clair 30 mi90 min NW 19G23 60°F 65°F2 ft1008.1 hPa (+0.9)
45165 37 mi30 min NNE 14G19 62°F 68°F2 ft
TWCO1 38 mi40 min NNE 19G24 68°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 41 mi60 min NNE 5.1G9.9 60°F 1007.8 hPa56°F
AGCM4 43 mi60 min 56°F 65°F1008.2 hPa
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 46 mi90 min NW 23G25 60°F 1008.1 hPa (+1.2)
CMPO1 49 mi120 min NNW 20G23 61°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI8 mi37 minNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F53°F90%1008.4 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI10 mi35 minNNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F54°F88%1007.8 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI16 mi37 minNNW 510.00 miFair58°F53°F84%1007.5 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI19 mi37 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F54°F83%1008.9 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI21 mi35 minNNW 310.00 miFair57°F56°F94%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDTW

Wind History from DTW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW30SW4SW4SW5S503E43NE40NE6NE7NE6NE6NE6NE7N7N4NW9NW10
G18
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1 day agoSE6S5S4S4S3S4S4S5S3S5SW6SW7SW10SW9SW3SW5SW12SW12SW11SW8NW4W4W3W4
2 days agoSW8SW9SW7W6SW5SW6SW5W7W5SW6SW10SW8SW6W6SW11SW9W8W7SW6SW8SW5SE4SE5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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