Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mayville, NY
May 8, 2024 2:33 PM EDT (18:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 5:04 AM Moonset 8:37 PM |
LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 342 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .
Today - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Patchy fog this morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LEZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 081726 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 126 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry and windy weather will prevail most of this afternoon, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and early evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Dry weather returns later tonight, then it'll be an unsettled weather pattern Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
12Z Buffalo sounding has a 45 knot westerly flow at 800mb which will partially mix to the surface this afternoon, resulting in wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph through late afternoon. A secondary shortwave trough will move across northern NY this afternoon, producing another round of showers and thunderstorms which will mainly be east of Lake Ontario, but a few may also along a convergence zone south of Lake Ontario. Strong wind fields aloft, but very limited instability so there's only a marginal risk of a few strong storms east of Lake Ontario this afternoon and early evening.
The shortwave trough will move east of the region tonight with lingering showers and storms ending by midnight. Associated cold front will move across the area resulting in mostly cloudy skies however rain-free conditions will prevail for the rest of the night.
12Z model guidance is slower and further south with a convectively augmented wave of low pressure on Thursday. It now appears it will remain rain-free Thursday morning, with increasing chances for showers across Western New York late Thursday afternoon. Some showers will likely move across the area Thursday night, but these will be weaker producing nominal rainfall amounts. This also will leave our area firmly in a stable northeast surface flow, with little to no risk for thunderstorms. Following this, Thursday will be a much cooler day with highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Friday through Friday night, the longwave trough will continue to carve out over the eastern US as a series of shortwaves dig through the Great Lakes and New England. DPVA and height falls will maintain an area of forcing and rain downstream of the trough axis, with a weak surface low developing in response to the forcing aloft over PA and the Mid Atlantic. The GFS continues to be the farthest north with this feature and would produce widespread rain across the region. The NAM/GEM/ECMWF have all trended farther southeast, keeping the best chance of organized rain from the Finger Lakes into Central and Eastern NY, with lower rain chances in our region. Trended POPS and QPF down for Friday through Friday night, especially for areas near the Canadian border.
Temperatures will be notably cooler Thursday through Friday as persistent low level northeast flow funnels cooler air out of Canada.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overall, the pattern will remain unsettled over the weekend through early next week, although the finer synoptic scale day to day details remain uncertain. A deep mid level trough from the Great Lakes to New England over the weekend will gradually deamplify early next week, although shortwaves will continue to traverse the US/Canadian border.
Saturday should start mainly dry, with one system moving east off the New England coast and the next moving through the central Great Lakes. The upstream shortwave and associated surface low will then move over or just south of the region Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, with another round of showers. The trough axis will gradually move off the New England coast Sunday, with rain chances trending down from west to east. Temperatures will remain quite cool over the weekend with clouds and cool temperatures aloft. Highs both days will reach the 55-60 degree range in most areas.
Monday through Tuesday another shortwave will move from the Great Lakes into New England, maintaining a chance of a few showers.
Temperatures aloft will start to recover as mid level heights gradually rise, allowing temperatures to trend to near or a little above average by Tuesday.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR flight conditions for western NY, with lingering MVFR cigs east of Lake Ontario this afternoon. Winds gusting to 35 knots this afternoon at KIAG, KBUF, and KROC. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms are possible east- southeast of Lake Ontario this afternoon into the evening.
Increasing clouds and lowering cigs following the passage of a cold front tonight. No precipitation, but this will lower cigs to mainly MVFR with areas of IFR across higher terrain tonight.
Low clouds will gradually dissipate during Thursday, but mid and high clouds will expand across the area from the south. Also a chance of showers late in the day.
Outlook...
Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday through Monday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
Moderate WSW winds this afternoon, particularly across Lake Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support Small Craft Advisories as outlined below
Elsewhere choppy
but sub- advisory conditions can be expected.
Winds will shift to the northeast and diminish tonight, with a general northeast flow through Thursday night. This will result in choppy conditions along the south shores of the lakes, with conditions approaching advisory criteria on Lake Erie.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 126 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
Dry and windy weather will prevail most of this afternoon, although a few more showers and thunderstorms are possible later in the afternoon and early evening, especially east of Lake Ontario. Dry weather returns later tonight, then it'll be an unsettled weather pattern Thursday through the weekend with a series of low pressure systems crossing the region.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
12Z Buffalo sounding has a 45 knot westerly flow at 800mb which will partially mix to the surface this afternoon, resulting in wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph through late afternoon. A secondary shortwave trough will move across northern NY this afternoon, producing another round of showers and thunderstorms which will mainly be east of Lake Ontario, but a few may also along a convergence zone south of Lake Ontario. Strong wind fields aloft, but very limited instability so there's only a marginal risk of a few strong storms east of Lake Ontario this afternoon and early evening.
The shortwave trough will move east of the region tonight with lingering showers and storms ending by midnight. Associated cold front will move across the area resulting in mostly cloudy skies however rain-free conditions will prevail for the rest of the night.
12Z model guidance is slower and further south with a convectively augmented wave of low pressure on Thursday. It now appears it will remain rain-free Thursday morning, with increasing chances for showers across Western New York late Thursday afternoon. Some showers will likely move across the area Thursday night, but these will be weaker producing nominal rainfall amounts. This also will leave our area firmly in a stable northeast surface flow, with little to no risk for thunderstorms. Following this, Thursday will be a much cooler day with highs ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Friday through Friday night, the longwave trough will continue to carve out over the eastern US as a series of shortwaves dig through the Great Lakes and New England. DPVA and height falls will maintain an area of forcing and rain downstream of the trough axis, with a weak surface low developing in response to the forcing aloft over PA and the Mid Atlantic. The GFS continues to be the farthest north with this feature and would produce widespread rain across the region. The NAM/GEM/ECMWF have all trended farther southeast, keeping the best chance of organized rain from the Finger Lakes into Central and Eastern NY, with lower rain chances in our region. Trended POPS and QPF down for Friday through Friday night, especially for areas near the Canadian border.
Temperatures will be notably cooler Thursday through Friday as persistent low level northeast flow funnels cooler air out of Canada.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overall, the pattern will remain unsettled over the weekend through early next week, although the finer synoptic scale day to day details remain uncertain. A deep mid level trough from the Great Lakes to New England over the weekend will gradually deamplify early next week, although shortwaves will continue to traverse the US/Canadian border.
Saturday should start mainly dry, with one system moving east off the New England coast and the next moving through the central Great Lakes. The upstream shortwave and associated surface low will then move over or just south of the region Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, with another round of showers. The trough axis will gradually move off the New England coast Sunday, with rain chances trending down from west to east. Temperatures will remain quite cool over the weekend with clouds and cool temperatures aloft. Highs both days will reach the 55-60 degree range in most areas.
Monday through Tuesday another shortwave will move from the Great Lakes into New England, maintaining a chance of a few showers.
Temperatures aloft will start to recover as mid level heights gradually rise, allowing temperatures to trend to near or a little above average by Tuesday.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR flight conditions for western NY, with lingering MVFR cigs east of Lake Ontario this afternoon. Winds gusting to 35 knots this afternoon at KIAG, KBUF, and KROC. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms are possible east- southeast of Lake Ontario this afternoon into the evening.
Increasing clouds and lowering cigs following the passage of a cold front tonight. No precipitation, but this will lower cigs to mainly MVFR with areas of IFR across higher terrain tonight.
Low clouds will gradually dissipate during Thursday, but mid and high clouds will expand across the area from the south. Also a chance of showers late in the day.
Outlook...
Thursday and Friday...Mainly MVFR. Showers likely and MVFR stratus.
Saturday through Monday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
Moderate WSW winds this afternoon, particularly across Lake Erie...where winds and wave action will be sufficient to support Small Craft Advisories as outlined below
Elsewhere choppy
but sub- advisory conditions can be expected.
Winds will shift to the northeast and diminish tonight, with a general northeast flow through Thursday night. This will result in choppy conditions along the south shores of the lakes, with conditions approaching advisory criteria on Lake Erie.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NREP1 | 15 mi | 64 min | W 12G | 69°F | ||||
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 19 mi | 34 min | SW 24G | 57°F | 29.60 | |||
| EREP1 | 32 mi | 46 min | WSW 11G | |||||
| 45142 - Port Colborne | 36 mi | 34 min | SW 21G | 52°F | 49°F | 4 ft | 29.59 | |
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 39 mi | 46 min | 55°F | 29.58 | ||||
| WCRP1 | 41 mi | 34 min | SSW 9.9G | 62°F | ||||
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 54 mi | 46 min | WSW 14G | 55°F | 60°F | 29.58 | 51°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KJHW CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/JAMESTOWN,NY | 14 sm | 37 min | W 24G33 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 70°F | 46°F | 43% | 29.66 | |
| KDKK CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/DUNKIRK,NY | 21 sm | 40 min | WSW 16G34 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 55°F | 60% | 29.63 |
Buffalo, NY,
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