Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mayville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:13PM Thursday September 23, 2021 2:11 PM EDT (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:43PMMoonset 8:37AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 613 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain early. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LEZ040 Expires:202109231515;;049161 FZUS51 KBUF 231013 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 613 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-231515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayville, NY
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location: 42.25, -79.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 231521 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1121 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will slowly move from west to east across the area, with the steadiest and heaviest rain reaching the Eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon and evening. Cooler and drier weather will return for most areas on Friday, except northeast of Lake Erie where some lake effect rain showers will be possible. Another cold front will then bring a chance of more showers on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A closed off sfc-mid level low near Detroit will move northward across Lake Huron into this evening. Meanwhile, a cold front over the Genesee valley will continue to move east into this evening. Strong moisture transport and dynamics in form of upper diffluence ahead of the system will support a swath of moderate to heavy rain along the slowly advancing cold front. Thus far, hourly rainfall rates have mainly been up to 0.25 inch/hr with isolated pockets around 0.40 inch/hr over the Finger Lakes. Heavier rain moves into eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon into this evening with 12hr totals in those areas from 18z today through 06z tonight likely topping out at 1.25 to 1.75 inches. Overall the amount of rain from the Genesee valley to the North Country will continue to support rises in smaller creeks and rivers, and some ponding on roadways but is unlikely to produce widespread flooding. Thus far the only main stem, larger river, that is showing more significant rises, above bankfull as of late this morning, is Genesee River at Wellsville.

Otherwise, dry slot in wake of the cold front has already resulted in some partial sunshine over western NY but temps here will stay in the upper 50s western Southern Tier to the mid 60s. Mid 60s at best in the recovering airmass once the rain ends over Genesee valley as well. Farther east, temps that still could rise into the mid or even upper 70s east of Lake Ontario will fall off into the lower 60s late afternoon into the evening as the cold front moves through.

Steady rain will exit east of Lewis County shortly after midnight tonight which will leave the vast majority of the area rain-free. The exception is the Niagara Frontier where some lake effect rain showers are likely late tonight. Persistent winds will limit radiational cooling, especially across the Niagara Frontier where winds will gust to 30 mph near the lakeshores. Even with limited radiational cooling, the cooler air mass will support low temperatures from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Friday and Friday night a closed upper level low initially over the Central Great Lakes will lift north to Hudson Bay . while opening up and eventually merging with another large-scale upper level trough digging southeastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes. The lingering cool cyclonic flow and wraparound moisture attendant to the departing closed low will support a short-lived lake response northeast of Lake Erie Friday . and northeast of Lake Ontario later Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

In the case of the Lake Erie activity . an initially sheared south- southwesterly flow will direct a broken band of showers mainly across the Niagara Peninsula to Niagara county through about mid- morning . with this then settling a bit further south to areas between KIAG-KBUF later in the morning with some subtle veering of the low level flow After that time. strong diurnal influences and drying of the column will result in the activity breaking up into some scattered showers . before eventually falling apart altogether by late in the day. Given the above disruptive influences and the rather sheared flow/inversion heights of only 6-7 kft to begin with . have capped PoPs in the likely range and kept rainfall amounts from this activity rather modest.

As for the Lake Ontario lake effect . insufficient moisture should preclude any lake response until early to mid afternoon . and even then the general sheared southerly flow/short fetch and diurnal influences should keep this initially confined to some scattered showers across Jefferson county and the uppermost Saint Lawrence River valley. Some veering of the still-rather sheared flow may then allow for a brief uptick in coverage/areal extent late Friday into early Friday evening . but even then any showers should remain largely scattered before diminishing after midnight as the column dries out.

Otherwise . mainly dry and cool weather will be the rule through Friday night. 850 mb temps of +4 to +6C will support highs mainly in the lower to mid 60s on Friday . with lows Friday night then settling into the mid to upper 40s across most of the area . with some lower 50s found closer to the lakeshores.

Saturday and Saturday night the next upper level trough will become increasingly negatively tilted as it slides from the Upper Great Lakes to the Ontario/Quebec border and New York State. As it does so . it will swing its attendant cold front eastward and across our area . though the various guidance packages still exhibit some disagreement on the exact timing of the frontal passage. Given the negative tilt to the supporting trough and the anafrontal nature of the boundary . feel that a somewhat slower solution is more in order and have therefore backed off a bit on the timing of any associated precip . with dry conditions expected until at least early afternoon across far WNY and through most if not all of the day further east Once the front does arrive. expect a period of scattered to numerous showers to follow its passage . with the greatest potential for/coverage of these found across far western New York As Saturday night progresses. a fresh shot of cooler air will overspread our region in the wake of the boundary . and this in tandem with sufficient synoptic moisture should result in additional lake effect rain showers developing northeast of both lakes.

As for temperatures . brief warming out ahead of the front will send 850 mb temps back up to +8/+9C on Saturday . or enough to support highs in the upper 60s across the higher terrain and lower to mid 70s on the lake plains . with the warmest readings found across the Finger Lakes Region. Cool advection following the frontal passage will then result in temps falling back to the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Following Saturday's frontal passage . a cyclonic west-southwesterly to westerly flow of cooler air will continue through Sunday and Sunday night. This should result in some lake effect/lake-enhanced showers northeast and east of both lakes . with upsloping also helping to enhance the showers at points. With this in mind have continued to adjust NBM PoPS for this period to better reflect the expected lake and terrain enhancement By Monday. the medium range guidance diverges significantly with respect to the placement of surface synoptic features and the low-level thermal structure of the airmass across our region . so for that time frame have reverted to more broadbrush slight chance PoPs.

Looking further out into next week . a general amplifying upper level trough is favored to persist over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast . though the various guidance packages also unsurprisingly show some disagreement on exactly how amplified the trough will get and the placement of its axis . with the 00z GEM/ECMWF both deeper and further west than the GFS This said. all three suggest at least some potential for an Alberta Clipper-like system to slide southeastward through the larger-scale trough and potentially bring some showers to our region Monday night and/or Tuesday . with lake effect and/or lake-enhanced showers also appearing possible downwind of the lakes given the seasonably cool cyclonic flow that should be in place. With this in mind . have indicated a general mix of slight chance to low chance PoPs to cover this.

Otherwise temperatures will range from near to a little below average throughout this period . with daily highs mostly in the 60s and nightly lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A band of moderate to heavy rain will shift from the Genesee valley to east of Lake Ontario (including KART) this afternoon through this evening. In general expect mainly VFR CIGS during the rain, with an occasional drop to MVFR VSBY during heavier rain. Higher terrain east of Lake Ontario with upslope flow could even see IFR VSBY at times, but that would be brief.

Where rain has ended (western NY sites) or will end shortly (KROC), expect VFR CIGS through the afternoon through a bit of lower-level moisture rotating in from the southwest behind the cold front could result in brief MVFR CIGS. Best chance of longer lived MVFR CIGS will be over higher terrain of Southern Tier, including KJHW.

Mainly VFR later tonight, outside of lake effect rain showers NNE of Lake Erie which may clip KIAG and MVFR stratus across the Southern Tier.

Outlook .

Friday . Mainly VFR, except MVFR possible in lake effect rain showers across the North Country and Niagara Frontier. Saturday and Sunday . MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers. Monday . VFR.

MARINE. Brisk S-SE flow today will direct the highest waves offshore and across Canadian waters even though winds will run 15 to 20 knots at times. Winds will shift to the SSW behind the cold front and eventually to the SW. Cooler temperatures behind the front will allow for better mixing, so hedge above model guidance for winds behind the front late today and tonight. Winds and waves likely to support SCA headlines tonight and Friday for Lake Erie and the Upper Niagara River. Small craft headlines may also be needed for the eastern waters of Lake Ontario. Winds will diminish Friday night when a high pressure ridge nudges closer to the waters.

There's a limited risk for waterspouts Friday and Friday night. Winds will be a bit on the strong side Friday, then once winds diminish and allow better land breeze convergence the moisture will be limited.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA SHORT TERM . JJR LONG TERM . JM/JJR AVIATION . Apffel/JLA MARINE . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NREP1 15 mi101 min S 14 G 22
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 19 mi71 min SW 12 G 18 63°F 1008.6 hPa (+0.9)
EREP1 32 mi53 min SSW 8 G 16
45167 34 mi51 min 19 G 21 62°F 71°F3 ft
45142 - Port Colborne 36 mi71 min SW 21 G 25 63°F 70°F4 ft1007.9 hPa (+0.7)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 39 mi53 min 64°F 1007.2 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 54 mi53 min SSW 15 G 19 66°F 71°F1007 hPa52°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY21 mi78 minSSW 14 G 2410.00 miOvercast64°F47°F54%1008.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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G37
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N4NW3S3SW8S9S14
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1 day agoS8S7SW4S4CalmSW3S9S10
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2 days agoNW3NE45S7S6S9S15
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G26

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