Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Bluff, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:50PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 1:37 AM CST (07:37 UTC) Moonrise 7:31PMMoonset 9:40AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 931 Pm Cst Tue Jan 18 2022
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming west after midnight, then northwest by morning. Occasional gale gusts to 35 kt late this evening. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt. Freezing spray. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Freezing spray in the morning. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft late. Wave forecast is for ice free areas
LMZ740 Expires:202201191000;;604099 FZUS53 KLOT 190331 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 931 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-191000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Bluff, IL
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location: 42.28, -87.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 190455 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1055 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

SHORT TERM. Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

Through Thursday .

* A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Porter County Indiana from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon for the potential for dangerous travel due to lake effect snow falling heavily at times.

A mild afternoon is being observed across northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana thanks to strong southerly flow that has brought in warmer air and allowed temperatures to reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s this afternoon. These mild conditions will change tonight as a strong cold front pushes through the area bringing with it blustery north-northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30 mph throughout the day on Wednesday. Temperatures will be dropping throughout the day Wednesday with the daily high expected to be reached around midnight and dropping into the teens by the afternoon. Even colder temperatures are in store for Wednesday night with lows in the single digits which when coupled with the blustery north-northwest winds will create windchills well below zero in the minus 10 to minus 20 range.

Precipitation along the afore mentioned front will be limited given the large expected amount of dry air aloft which should suppress any precipitation development. However, on the backside of the system a band of moisture is expected to move down the center of Lake Michigan Wednesday night into Thursday bringing with it a threat for robust lake-effect snow showers for portions of northwest Indiana. High resolution model guidance is in good support of bands of lake-effect snow developing along Porter County, IN and points eastward where strong surface convergence is expected to develop along with steep lapse rates and saturated low-levels that will support efficient snow production a few thousand feet above the surface. The strong lake induced instability and convergence and lower level lift should compensate for somewhat middling equilibrium levels of 7-9kft.

While some of the guidance indicates that the bulk of the snowfall could be east of our forecast area, there is about 50% confidence that an intense lake effect band or two could take shape and move into Porter County with a residence time of at least 3 hours. This scenario would generate snowfall rates upwards of one to two inches per hour of fluffy/high ratio snow, which would lead to dangerous travel conditions for the commutes on Thursday due to snow covered roads and reduced visibilities from intense snowfall and possibly blowing snow. Given these concerns a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Porter County, IN from 6 PM CST Wednesday through 6 PM CST Thursday, but the highest snow potential looks to be after midnight Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.

We're likely headed for needing at least an advisory for Porter, but with the potential for high impact conditions along a portion of I-80/94 corridor, wanted to raise awareness. The watch was issued in collaboration with WFO Northern Indiana, with LaPorte County Indiana and Berrien County MI included.

Yack/Castro

LONG TERM. Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

Thursday through Tuesday .

The upcoming pattern will feature colder than normal temperatures aligned with our climatologically coldest period of the winter season. In addition, active northwest flow will bring multiple clipper type disturbances into the region Saturday through Tuesday.

On Thursday evening, the lake effect snow focus and uncertainty will be tied to potential meso-low development over far southern Lake Michigan. Forecast soundings are still respectable during this time, but confidence is low in specifics, so have some mid chance PoPs into Porter County. If meso-low formation results in the band still being partially over land, could prolong at least moderate rates. Outside of the lake effect snow, ~1040 mb Arctic high pressure will be settling over the mid and upper MS Valley, with a cold night in store. Main limiting factor coming off today's snow melt will be lack of snow cover except for northwest portion of the CWA where lows of 0 to 5 below will be attainable and single digits to around 10F elsewhere. Light winds will keep wind chill values close to air temps.

After a quiet and chilly (upper teens to mid 20s F) Friday, the pattern will become more active, though with no moisture laden systems in northwest flow set-up. Anomalous western ridging (+PNA) will connect with ridging spiking to the north of Alaska (-EPO), keeping deep trough axis centered from Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes. The first disturbance we're watching on Saturday is along/ahead of a cold front packing reinforcing surge of cold air. Really limited moisture and light QPF output on the guidance but decent forcing amidst cold advection could squeeze out a dusting/coating of snow.

The "clipper highway" pattern will feature 24-36 hour intervals of these systems moving into the broader mid-upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes region. 500 mb ensemble mean shows the core of the strongest 500 mb winds oriented toward our general direction. Predictability is low on the specifics of these low amplitude disturbances several days out, but what we can say is regular chances of light to moderate snow accumulations are possible, depending on the tracks each individual clipper takes.

There is a somewhat coherent signal (especially on ECMWF ensemble) for first threat being Sunday, with another on Monday or later Monday into Tuesday (with this also having solid support on ECMWF suite and a bit more robust look on 12z GFS and ECMWF). Given uncertainty, Sunday and Monday PoPs top out in the chance range, with lingering slight chances even into Tuesday. At the end of the period, there is a strong signal at this lead time for an even colder shot of Arctic air driven in ahead of incoming 1045-1050 mb high pressure. Exactly how cold it gets will be determined by the snow cover extent. At the least in this set- up, would expect the lake effect machine to reinvigorate, so nudged up PoPs a bit into Porter County.

Castro

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Forecast concerns include .

Wind shift to northwest early Wednesday morning. Gusty northwest winds through Wednesday evening. Mvfr cigs early Wednesday morning. Possible mvfr cigs Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Winds are slowly turning west/southwest ahead of an approaching cold front and as they do, speeds/gusts are relaxing some. The strongest low level winds are shifting east currently ending low level wind shear. Winds will turn westerly for a short time and gusts may briefly diminish, then winds will turn northwest with gusts into the lower/mid 20kt range into Wednesday evening. Gusts will eventually diminish Wednesday night.

An area of mvfr cigs will move across the area overnight, but has slowed some and has also eroded a bit on the back side. Duration of the mvfr cigs still looks to be in the 3-4 hour time period. Few/sct mvfr level cloud cover will be possible through Wednesday evening, but another period of mvfr cigs is possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Confidence is still rather low for exact cigs, but did add a low vfr deck for now. And some flurries are possible during this time period, but confidence also remains low. cms

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . Winter Storm Watch . INZ002 . 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM Thursday.

LM . Small Craft Advisory . IL nearshore waters until 9 AM Thursday.

Small Craft Advisory . IN nearshore waters until 4 PM Thursday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 6 mi97 min W 17G26 40°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 21 mi37 min W 15G21 38°F 1005.4 hPa (+2.0)
OKSI2 28 mi97 min WNW 5.1G12 42°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 29 mi37 min W 25G29 40°F 34°F
CNII2 32 mi22 min W 12G18 39°F 31°F
JAKI2 37 mi97 min W 17G27 42°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 41 mi49 min WSW 9.9G20 41°F 1005.1 hPa35°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL10 mi42 minW 9 G 2110.00 miOvercast38°F31°F76%1005.8 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi45 minW 12 G 1910.00 miFair40°F32°F73%1006.6 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL21 mi46 minW 11 G 2310.00 miOvercast39°F32°F76%1006.1 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI22 mi44 minW 20 G 3110.00 miOvercast and Breezy38°F30°F73%1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW4W400W3SW4SW4SW655SW5SW4SW6003000W5W5NW8NW5NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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