Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Park, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:31PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 2:55 AM EST (07:55 UTC) Moonrise 7:11PMMoonset 9:21AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 937 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly clear.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Mostly clear.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves omitted due to ice coverage.
LCZ460 Expires:202201190915;;601564 FZUS63 KDTX 190237 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 937 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A clipper low pressure system, 29.40 inches, will draw east across the northern Great Lakes tonight and into Wednesday morning. This will bring a period of gales and elevated wave action for Lake Huron. The passage of the low will draw a cold front across the region tomorrow and will veer winds from the east-southeast to west-northwest into tomorrow night. High pressure, 30.60 inches, will fill in behind the cold front by Thursday. LCZ460-190915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Park, MI
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location: 42.34, -82.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 190750 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 250 AM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

DISCUSSION.

Fairly strong (993-994 mb) low pressure currently exiting eastern Lake Superior, with an even more impressive veering low level jet (60 knots per per SPC mesoscale analysis). Southwest winds have been able to gust around 35 mph, even with limited mixing depths. The core of the low level jet will be exiting east shortly, but an increase in mixing depths as cold advection surges in this morning will help offset the diminished low level wind speeds, and continued wind gusts in the 30-35 mph range appear likely today, with brief isolated higher gusts possible around the frontal passage.

Positive tilted 850 mb Theta-E ridge axis is already displaced southeast of the State, and prospects for measurable precipitation remain very low/highly doubtful with pronounced mid level dry slot. As such, cloud depths will be shallow and will need every little bit of Lake Michigan moisture as cold advection surges into Lower Michigan. With the drier frontal passage, better mixing is allowing temperatures to rise to around 40 degrees at press time. Temps should have peaked by 12z and will be slowly fall through the day.

With broad mid level troughing moving in this evening and persisting into Thursday, have no issue carrying flurries/isolated snow shower mention despite the unfavorable northwest winds. Rap soundings late in the day shows super saturation with respect to ice in the DGZ, and 925-850 mb temps will continue to reside close or just above DGZ with pockets/streamers of saturation indicated tonight into Thursday. As usual with the northwest flow, will have to watch the eastern Thumb shoreline very closely with the enhanced thermal troughing setting up, as the 00z NAM does imply a glancing blow, per 925 mb omega. ARW also gives some support, with a band even glancing the shoreline during the day on Thursday as well. Ultimately, thinking the ice cover will help limit activity, and/or create the thermal gradient to keep the main band/convergence just offshore.

Three shots of Arctic air progged over the next seven days, per 00z Euro/Canadian. The first shot follows the morning cold front, with cold air funneling in through Thursday, but 850 mb temps "only" progged to settle down to around -20 C. None-the-less, very dry airmass (both Euro/regional gem indicating sub zero surface dew pts) and surface high in place Thursday night will promote good radiating night, but lack of deep snow cover remains a factor, and a reason to remain somewhat conservative and would expected the normally cold spots to reach zero to 10 below zero, with low to mid single digits elsewhere.

Mostly sunny skies on Friday will attempt to take the chill from the air, but highs only in the lower 20s will likely be the best we can do with 925 mb temps only progged to reach -13 C.

The next polar trough axis on track to swing through the Central Great Lakes Saturday night, with 850 mb temps once again flirting with -20 C on Sunday. With the deep trough encompassing the eastern half of the Conus, will have to watch for the Pacific energy/clipper systems diving southeast on the backside of the trough. Obviously, snow to liquid ratios would be running very high with the cold airmass, and the Euro had remained consistent with a low tracking through the northern Ohio Valley on Monday, before the polar trough settles over the Great Lakes region Tuesday night, potentially delivering the coldest air of the season (-24 C at 850 mb/see 00z Canadian/12z Euro) to southeast Michigan.

With the bulk of 12z Euro ensemble members and operational Canadian not in lock step with the Euro for Monday, not terribly surprising the operation run of the 00z Euro has now trended flatter/weaker with the low, confined to the Ohio River. Still plenty of variability amongst the Ensemble members, and a low chance of light snow is probably the best we can do for now. The cold blast for the early week period is also advertised to be more of a glancing blow, but still very cold (850 mb temps nearing -20 C), comparable to the Thursday's and Sunday's, suggesting highs in the mid teens to lower 20s for Tuesday/Wednesday.

MARINE.

A low pressure clipper system will push east across the upper Great Lakes through this morning which has and will continue to produce gales across much of Lake Huron. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of the low pressure is in place across the Great Lakes, producing sustained wind speeds up to 30 knots across Lake Huron, with gusts peaking around 35 knot gales. As low pressure continues to travel east it will start to veer wind direction from southwest to west-northwest as arctic air is ushered in behind a cold front. The better gale threat will then shift more toward the northern part of the Great Lakes, across northern Lake Huron given the better westerly fetch. This will allow gales to continue well into this afternoon and early evening, where stronger gales around 40 knots will then be likely. As a result, a Gale Warning remains in effect in effect for the northern two thirds of Lake Huron through the evening.

Bitter cold air funneling in behind the low today through Thursday will also allow for snow squalls to develop along with freezing spray.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1156 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

AVIATION .

Stronger south-southwest flow will continue to mark conditions overnight as a low pressure system tracks through the northern great lakes. Nocturnal low level stability will place some limitation on gust potential, but with intermittent gusts of 20 to 30 knots expected. Inbound cold front sweeps across Southeast Michigan during the mid morning hours. This leads to an expanding coverage of MVFR stratus throughout the morning, with limited potential for a light rain or snow shower. Winds shift to west-northwest and remain gusty with the frontal passage. Wind speed and gust magnitude will gradually ease through the latter half of Wednesday. Cloud bases tending to lift with time Wednesday afternoon as drier and colder air works into moist layer.

For DTW . Clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft hold through the early morning hours. Low stratus then arrives just ahead of an approaching cold front mid morning /09z-10z/. Wind shift to west- northwest with the frontal passage, with gust magnitude near crosswind thresholds late Wednesday morning before easing in the afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft after 09z tonight through Wednesday morning. Low Wednesday afternoon and evening.

* Low confidence in westerly winds exceeding the crosswind threshold Wednesday morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ361>363-462.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for LHZ421.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . AM/SF AVIATION . MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 10 mi56 min SSW 14G20 34°F 1005.8 hPa
AGCM4 29 mi62 min 33°F 33°F1005.5 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi56 min SSW 18G20 35°F
TWCO1 47 mi46 min SSW 25G31
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 49 mi56 min SSW 26G31 35°F 1008.2 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi2 hrsSSW 16 G 2410.00 miOvercast35°F26°F70%1007.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi61 minSSW 16 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F28°F70%1005.4 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi60 minS 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy34°F31°F86%1005.8 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi61 minSSW 12 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F28°F71%1006.4 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi63 minSSW 17 G 279.00 miOvercast37°F27°F67%1006.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrW6W7W7W6W6W7SW7SW9W9SW11SW9SW10SW11S11S15
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1 day agoN9N11N12
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2 days ago--N4N4N5N40N40NE3E7E7E7E665E6E10E7NE5N5NE6N7N8N8

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