Wednesday, December1, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Amherst Center, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:20PM Wednesday December 1, 2021 2:07 AM EST (07:07 UTC) Moonrise 4:26AMMoonset 3:39PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 127 Am Est Wed Dec 1 2021
Rest of tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night and Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 127 Am Est Wed Dec 1 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Seas and southwest winds increase somewhat overnight, as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front crosses the area on Wednesday, with winds and seas diminishing as the day progresses. Winds and seas build on Thursday as a warm front crosses through the region. Then a strong cold front crosses the waters Thursday night, followed by gusty wnw winds and rough seas through Friday. Blustery conditions prevail through the weekend. Another weather system brings affects the northeast later in the weekend into Monday, however there is a large amount of uncertainty regarding the track and intensity of this system. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Amherst Center, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 010530 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1230 AM EST Wed Dec 1 2021

SYNOPSIS. A shortwave trough brings a few sprinkles and flurries to southern parts of our area early tonight. Otherwise dry weather tonight into Wednesday. A second disturbance approaches Wednesday night, with a chance of rain and snow showers Thursday. A cold front will sweep precipitation out on Friday, ushering blustery and cold conditions for the weekend. Another weather system brings another round of precipitation to the Northeast. But the track to this system remains in doubt, bringing uncertainty as to the type of precipitation.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. 945 PM Update:

No changes made to the forecast at this time. See previous discussions below.

720 PM Update .

Plenty of clouds over the Northeast USA with the trailing edge extending from Philadelphia to west of Cleveland. Forward movement is slow, supporting clearing in Srn New England well after midnight. Temperatures at 7 PM were in the 30s. With clouds for many hours to come and little cold advection, expect temperatures to only slowly fall overnight.

A few light rain or snow showers reported during the evening. With most cloud bases above 8000 feet, there is enough dry air to evaporate much of the precip that falls.

Previous Discussion .

A weak shortwave trough will continue to sweep to our south through the early evening hours, bringing along the chance of showers across central CT, the south coast of MA, southern RI, and the Islands. While a surge of moisture allows surface dewpoints rise into the upper 20s and low 30s, which are downright comfortable compared to overnight dews in the 10s, a significant dry layer between 850 and 550 mb will make it extremely difficult for precipitation to make it to the surface, meaning that only the heaviest of showers may produce up to 0.01 or 0.02" of QPF, most likely across Nantucket or Martha's Vineyard. Given sub zero temps to about 950 mb, precipitation will sneak through as flurries along the northern extend of the precipitation shield. While radar signatures may indicate widespread precipitation, most showers/flurries will evaporate before hitting the ground, much like they did during the day on Monday.

Flurries may also initiate across the east slopes of the Berkshires, but as this system moves quickly to our northeast, flurry chances diminish quickly after sunset.

Deep mixing that occurred during the daytime will take awhile to decouple overnight, with winds expected between 5-10 kt. Combined with increasing cloud cover and higher dewpoints, the light winds will keep most areas from radiating overnight. Clearing after midnight may allow a few areas, namely in NW MA to radiate if winds go calm for an hour or two. All in all, temperatures are expected to be a solid 10-15F warmer this evening compared to last.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. The daytime hours of Wednesday will fall into a dry pocket between systems. As the shortwave that passed south of us on Tuesday evening departs, clouds will clear across most of southern New England. Westerly winds develop Gusty westerly winds, between 15-25 kt, will develop around 15Z as we mix back up to 900mb. A warming trend is set to begin on Wednesday, as 925 mb temps tomorrow will linger just a few degrees C below 0C. Temperatures but will warm through the day, so mixing to 900 mb will enhance temperatures on Wednesday. Widespread upper 30s and low 40s can be expected. Cloud cover begins to creep back into southern New England late in the day and during the early evening hours as our next precipitation maker approaches from the west. Warm air advection will ride a wind switch to the W/SW Wednesday evening as 925mb temps increase to +2 to +4C, resulting in stable and warming temps overnight. Low temperatures are generally expected to occur just after sunset and will be between 28F and 40F, coolest across NW MA. Model guidance is split on exactly how progressive our next system will be, with the GFS bringing precipitation into our area as early as 06Z. Other guidance, like the ECMWF and Canadian models are more conservative, bringing precipitation to southern New England around 12Z. Given that some areas of NW and Central MA and northern CT will still be around the freezing mark as precipitation moves in, light snow may be observed as the low noses east.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Big Picture .

Near-zonal flow aloft late this week and the weekend. This will feature several shortwaves moving across New England. One shortwave that moves ashore in the Pacific NW Saturday digs a trough over the Northeast USA Monday, followed by a shortwave dropping south from Northern Canada Tuesday.

Contour heights will be below normal Thursday-Friday, then climb to normal or a little above over the weekend. There are signs of a cool- down Monday night and possibly Tuesday.

Mass fields are similar through Saturday and possibly Sunday, then quickly diverge as a system moves through on Monday. Confidence is moderate-high Thursday through Sunday, then drops to low for Sunday night through Tuesday.

Details .

Thursday . Shortwave and surface low move across Canada. This drags a warm front through Southern New England. The shortwave and its supporting upper jet will generate sufficient lift to generate clouds and showers. Surface winds will increase with increasing pressure gradient. Expect southwest winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon, then become gusty in the evening with gusts 20 to 25 kt. Temperatures will start the day cold enough for some snow showers, but then temperatures will climb into the 40s and lower 50s, which will change any snow over to rain.

The Canadian low then sweeps a cold front through the region Thursday night. Scattered showers will move offshore with the cold front. Cold advection behind the front will tap stronger wind speeds at 900-850 mb, about 40-50 kt with 30 kts closer to the surface. Winds will swing out of the West-northwest . will expect gusts near 30. This draws in drier cooler air, as well as some clearing. Temps should drop back into the 30s.

Friday . High pressure moves over the region, bringing fair skies. The pressure gradient will maintain northwest winds, and cold advection mixing will support gusts of 30 kt. Temps aloft suggest max temps around 40 in Nrn Mass and 40-45 farther south.

Friday night-Saturday . Another shortwave drops through from Canada Saturday. This will generate chance pops for snow showers, possible snow/rain showers south of the Mass Pike. Temps will climb Saturday only to the mid 30s to low 40s.

Sunday . High pressure moves over the region with fair weather and continued cool temps. Temps aloft will again support max temps in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Monday-Tuesday . Highly uncertain system for early next week. The GFS keeps the upper flow shallow and carries this system through Canada. This brings a chance of rain showers Monday, then a cold front swings through late Monday, followed by drying and colder air. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF . 12Z was unavailable . digs a slightly deeper upper trough and drops the surface low farther south to the New England south coast. This would support snow or snow showers. The range of solutions lends low confidence to either solution. Either scenario remains possible. So the forecast will maintain continuity with the previous forecast of chance of rain or snow showers. Stay tuned for later updates.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence in the forecast.

Through 12z: Gradual clearing through daybreak, skies remain VFR. Winds diminish and become light out of the WSW. Occasional MVFR conditions possible at ACK, FMH, HYA, and along the east slope of the Berkshires as a few spotty showers develop.

Today: VFR. Breezy W/WNW winds 10 to 15 knots. Mid level clouds build in during the second half of the day.

Tonight: VFR ceilings become MVFR west to east as sct'd rain and snow showers are possible. Iso. IFR possible in places like ORH. W/SW winds 5 to 10 knots.

KBOS TAF . High Confidence. VFR. Ceilings continue to lift before briefly clearing out this morning. Gusty westerly winds between 15 and 20 knots. Increasing mid level clouds this afternoon.

KBDL TAF . High Confidence. VFR for the period. SW wind less than 10 knots. Ceilings lower from west to east this evening becoming MVFR early tomorrow morning with chance of SHRA.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN, chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight . High Confidence.

Chance for light showers early tonight as a weather system passes over the southern waters. Southwest wind becomes west at 15-20 kt, gusting to 20-25 knots. Wave heights begin to build back in from the south up to 7 feet. Small craft advisories continue for the Rhode Island waters and the Southern Outer Waters.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: High confidence.

Gusty west winds 20 to 25 knots and wave heights 5-7 feet across the outer ocean waters. SCA remains in place until Wednesday evening. Winds and seas diminish Wednesday night.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/ .

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of snow showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for ANZ235- 237.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/KS NEAR TERM . WTB/Gaucher/KS SHORT TERM . KS LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/Gaucher MARINE . WTB/KS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 70 mi49 min W 4.1G6 37°F 49°F1013.7 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 74 mi49 min 36°F 44°F1014.9 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 77 mi49 min 37°F 1012.8 hPa

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA12 mi71 minN 010.00 miOvercast32°F28°F84%1013.4 hPa
Orange Municipal Airport, MA18 mi75 minNW 310.00 miOvercast31°F27°F85%1013 hPa
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA19 mi74 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F28°F82%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCEF

Wind History from CEF (wind in knots)