Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Watkins Glen, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:02PM Thursday September 23, 2021 7:12 PM EDT (23:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:32PMMoonset 8:27AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1037 Am Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts in the evening. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts Saturday night. Showers likely Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of waterspouts during the day. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 43 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202109232100;;058353 FZUS51 KBUF 231437 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1037 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-232100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watkins Glen, NY
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location: 42.38, -76.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 232235 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 635 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Periods of rain, some heavy at times will continue into the evening hours east of interstate 81, with gradual drying to the west. A few stronger thunderstorms are also possible across the Poconos and Catskills into the evening. After some patchy early morning fog expect mostly sunny and seasonable weather for Friday and Saturday. A weak system brings a few more clouds and a low chance for rain showers Saturday night into Sunday, especially across Central NY.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. 6 pm update .

Forecast in decent shape. Minor changes. Bringing forecast in line with observed. Rain and thunderstorms further east than forecast but slowing evident. Temperatures are cooling slowly. Dewpoints are dropping through the 50s far west. The narrow band of clearing in Steuben and Yates is filling in.

400 PM Update

Deep plume of moisture remains pointed at our central and eastern zones late this afternoon, and will continue to bring periods of moderate to heavy rain along and east of I-81 into the evening hours. This moisture plume is very slowly inching off to the east, but current radar/satellite trends show that it may remain nearly stationary for a few hours this evening, as stronger t'storm activity rides north from central NY into Pike, Wayne, Sullivan and Delaware counties. Rainfall rates have generally been around or under 0.5" per hour, except under the heavier convection where 1 to 1.5" per hour would be possible. SPC mesoanalysis shows a narrow ribbon of PWATS still around 1.7 to 1.8 inches collocated with the heavy rain band. The other thing to watch will be the potential for isolated strong to severe t'storms this evening; mainly across Pike, Sullivan and Delaware counties. Current mesoanalysis shows around 500 J/Kg of SBCAPE and effective layer wind shear around 45 kts . creating a marginally favorable environment for a few supercells to develop within the broader rain/convective band. Main concern would be for isolated damaging wind gusts, if the winds from the low level jet could mix down to the surface. Also, cannot rule out an isolated, brief tornado, as 0-1km shear is 30-35 kts and low level helicity is 200-300 M2/S2. Any storms should exit east of our area by 10-11 PM as the front moves through.

Have cancelled the flash flood watches early for Steuben, Chemung, Tioga, Bradford, Wyoming & Luzerne counties . where the steady rain has already ended and stream levels are falling. The watch remains in effect further east, where the potential for isolated flooding issues remains. Latest mid level water vapor loop is already showing much drier air entering our western zones, with the visible satellite showing partly sunny skies back toward Penn Yan, Hornell and Elmira. Expect this dry/clearing to gradually push east, with the rain ending along I-81 around or just before sunset and exiting our eastern zones after midnight. Could see some patchy fog develop late tonight . cooler with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. 400 PM Update

Upper level low stay far enough north and west to have little impact on our area for Friday. We'll be under a cyclonic southwest flow pattern. After some early morning fog expect sunny skies, before some scattered cumulus clouds develop midday and into the afternoon. There will be lake effect showers off of lake Erie and Ontario, but these will remain well west of our forecast area. Slightly breezy southwest winds 7-15 mph, with seasonable temperatures expect . highs in the mid to upper 60s.

High pressure remains in control of our weather Friday night, with mostly clear skies and light winds. This should allow for radiational, valley fog to develop. Rather cool overnight lows, dipping down into 40s. Cannot rule out some upper 30s in the normally cooler, rural valleys.

Repeat for Saturday, after early morning valley fog and cool start, expect partly sunny skies and slightly warmer afternoon highs 70-75. Next upper level trough approaches late in the afternoon toward sunset, with some increasing clouds from Binghamton /Syracuse west. Light south-southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Previously mentioned trough swings through Saturday night and early Sunday, bringing scattered rain showers . mainly for Central NY. With more clouds around it won't be as cool overnight, with forecast lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Some model differences for Sunday, but in general a broad upper level trough remains in place across the eastern Great Lakes. Depending on the timing of a shortwave disturbance, there could be a chance for a few showers . especially north of Binghamton across CNY again. Otherwise, partly sunny and seasonable with highs in the 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. 330 PM Update

The cool but seasonal temperatures will continue into early next week as a Canadian short wave swings eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast. This trough will be capable of producing scattered light rain showers Sunday night and through the day Monday. Some of the rain could linger into Monday night. The rain is not expected to be an all day event and amounts should be on the light side. The air mass is expected to be on the cool side too, with 850mb temperatures around +2 to +4 deg C. Overnight lows Sunday night/Mon morning will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Daytime highs on Monday will rise into the mid 60s to near 70.

High pressure will build across the wrn Great Lakes and Upper Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday which will act to amplify the cyclonic flow across the Northeast and continue to draw south a cool and dry air mass from ern Canada. There is a slight chance for some afternoon diurnal convective showers on Tuesday, but with limited moisture any rainfall will be light and fairly isolated. Temperatures Tue and Wed will remain season with highs in the 60s to around 70 . and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Slow moving cold front with a narrow band of moderate to heavy rain is moving east across the region this afternoon. Terminals will be impacted with rain/fog/low clouds producing conditions below alternate minimums through the next couple hours. Drier air will move in behind the system tonight and clear conditions out. MVFR ceilings may hold on around RME through the night, but most sites should becomes VFR by 01-03Z this evening. There is a heightened potential for fog with condition below alt minimums at ELM between 07-13Z. All terminals will become VFR after 13Z.

South winds around 10 to 20 kt will become swly this afternoon and drop below 10 kt. Winds will remain swly and increase to 10 to 15 kt after 14Z Fri morning.

Outlook .

Friday afternoon . Mainly VFR conditions.

Saturday through Monday . Mainly VFR, apart from restrictions in valley fog at KELM.

Tuesday . Increasing chances for showers and low clouds.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Friday for PAZ048. Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Friday for PAZ039-040-044-072. NY . Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Friday for NYZ057-062. Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Friday for NYZ056.

SYNOPSIS . MJM/TAC NEAR TERM . MJM/TAC SHORT TERM . MJM LONG TERM . BJT AVIATION . BJT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 72 mi72 min W 8.9 G 13 66°F 1010.5 hPa (+2.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 73 mi54 min 65°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 77 mi54 min S 5.1 G 8.9 66°F 1008.6 hPa62°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elmira, Elmira / Corning Regional Airport, NY14 mi19 minWSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F50°F60%1011.1 hPa
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY21 mi19 minWSW 11 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F50°F60%1010.8 hPa
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY22 mi16 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F60°F90%1011.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KELM

Wind History from ELM (wind in knots)
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E3--SE84SE5SW9SW6W3CalmCalmSW35SE6SE8W13W11
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1 day agoCalmCalmE3E4S3SE63S4S5S5S4SE7E5E3SE4SE3SE5S9S13--CalmS7SE4E5
2 days agoS4CalmN3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmSW3SE3S4SW4S4S4S9S10SW9
G17
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SW9S5S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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