Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 2:46 AM   Moonset 1:01 PM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 020824 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 424 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through the next 7+ days.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms expected tonight with greater coverage and intensity Friday afternoon, although severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time.

- Low confidence forecast in place through the weekend regarding additional showers, then clearing high pressure arrives Sunday night into Monday.

- A large low pressure system lifts into the High Plains Tuesday and Wednesday lending renewed storm chances, locally.

DISCUSSION

Morning MSAS MSLP data shows a broadening region of high pressure across the Upper Midwest while GOES vapor imagery reveals a well formed circulation along the central Ontario/Quebec border. Lower Michigan will remain positioned between these two systems, at least through the morning hours. Given the more diffuse pressure gradient, weaker winds eventually veer toward the northeast, before taking on a southeasterly trajectory this afternoon as the ridge migrates northeastward and breaks down. Today's flow scheme offers more seasonable conditions attributed to the advection of cooler lake- modified air. The coldest readings will be found immediately downwind of the shorelines where temperatures peak in the 60s. Highs moderate in the low-mid 70F range across the rest of the forecast area with southwest extent.

Inbound shortwave troughing tilts negatively and tracks into the Upper Midwest today with an active LLJ. Latest NWP solutions have fallen into better agreement regarding dry PoPs for most of Southeast Michigan during the daylight period. More formidable ambient dryness provided by the neighboring anticyclonic gyre is now reflected in forecast soundings, marked by a higher temperature through the warm nose preceding the surface front and better column uniformity of dry southwest flow. PWATs continue to trend lower as a result. Local probabilistic data lends confidence that any showers that could develop prior to 00Z should remain along the western fringe of the forecast area. Did adjust PoPs to restrict Slight Chance mentions west of US-23. Should note that the 02.12Z FV3 and 02.04Z HRRR are the two CAM outliers since both suggest showers developing earlier and surviving past the demarcated PoP boundary.
Chance for showers and some sub-severe storms increases from west to east overnight. Lack of instability limits the coverage of any stronger storms.

Showers will be on-going Friday morning as dewpoints creep up with the arrival of the surface warm front arrives. There are still points of uncertainty wrt the triple point location midday which affects coverage and strength of convective activity. Regardless, about 250-750 J/kg of MLCAPE should build as the cold/occluded front works in with some indications of a brief window for SBCAPE development. This would mainly induce a more robust flare-up during the afternoon/evening period, but a weakening trend in shear parameters limit severity. In spite of cloud cover, temperatures should still top out in the upper 70s for most areas. Most of the convective activity should depart into Ontario by midnight, but low- level omega signal indicates some lingering ascent and shower activity with moist easterly feed.

Low level moisture remains trapped beneath an inversion with weak gradient wind Saturday. This supports continued stratus and some sprinkles with perturbed mid-level flow. The abnormal warmth persists through the weekend while an upper level trough approaches Sunday warranting continued low-end PoPs. This pushes a cold front into the region before it stalls just south of the state line Sunday night. High pressure quickly crosses the Great Lakes Monday offering the first truly dry day before the low tracks into the High Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. The aforementioned front then lifts northward as a warm front lending renewed rain/storm chances midweek with little evidence of any significant cool-down.

MARINE

Modest wind speed from the northwest expected through early today as high pressure builds into the region. Winds establish an easterly component late today as the high exits the region. A low pressure system is forecast to track across the northern great lakes Friday.
This will draw a cold front through lower Michigan, bringing increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds holding from the southeast at less than 20 knots in advance of this front Friday.

HYDROLOGY

Scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive tonight with varying degrees of coverage through Friday. A cold front moves through Lower Michigan Friday afternoon/evening which may produce a few robust thunderstorms containing heavier downpours. Some areas could see in excess of a half inch of rainfall by Friday night. No major flood concerns are expected at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1158 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

AVIATION...

Slightly cooler and much drier air remains inbound ahead of weak Midwest surface high pressure late tonight. Clouds are therefore limited to patches of cirrus with clear sky at lower levels across southern Lower Mi. A greater component of mid level clouds is noted to the north which will be monitored as cloud layer wind veers northerly toward sunrise. The latest trends in observations and guidance suggest mbS could be brushed with low end VFR coverage but with limited predictability on timing/duration. Otherwise, it's not until late in the day when a more notable increase in mid and high clouds occurs accompanied by light wind becoming a lake breeze enhanced easterly direction into Thursday evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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