Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grants Pass, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 6:20PM Saturday October 23, 2021 2:12 PM PDT (21:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:05PMMoonset 9:38AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 203 Pm Pdt Sat Oct 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am pdt Sunday...
.gale warning in effect from 1 am pdt Sunday through Sunday morning...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Tonight..S wind 15 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt until early morning, then...becoming se 30 kt late tonight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, S wind 10 to 20 kt... Becoming se 25 kt late tonight. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft...building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. W swell 10 to 11 ft at 13 seconds...subsiding to 8 to 9 ft at 11 seconds in the evening, then...building to 10 to 11 ft at 11 seconds after midnight. Showers likely in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Sun..Northern portion, S gales 40 kt...easing to 30 kt. Brookings southward, S wind 30 kt...easing to 20 to 25 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 10 to 13 ft. W swell 9 to 10 ft at 12 seconds...building to 11 to 13 ft at 14 seconds in the afternoon. Rain in the morning, then showers and slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 6 to 9 ft. W swell 16 to 18 ft at 17 seconds...building to 25 ft at 16 seconds after midnight. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Mon..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 6 to 8 ft. SWell W 21 to 24 ft. Showers.
Mon night..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. SWell W 18 to 21 ft. Showers.
Tue..S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft. SWell W 17 ft... Subsiding to W 14 to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. SWell W 11 to 12 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..S wind 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 10 ft... Building to 13 ft.
Thu..S wind 10 kt...veering to sw after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell W 10 to 11 ft.
PZZ300 203 Pm Pdt Sat Oct 23 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Small craft advisory winds will remain over the area through this evening. A strong front will move onshore early Sunday morning with dangerous conditions through at least Monday. Storm force southerly winds are expected from cape blanco northward with gales south of cape blanco. Historically large west swell will follow the front and very high and very steep seas will continue into Tuesday. Winds and seas will subside late Tuesday, but seas will remain steep through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grants Pass, OR
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location: 42.42, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 231621 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 921 AM PDT Sat Oct 23 2021

DISCUSSION. An update is not necessary this morning. A front of weak to moderate strength is providing some wet weather today with light to locally/occasionally moderate rain transitioning to showers. There will be about a 6-hour break this evening with winds beginning to increase ahead of the main event.

The latest data is quite consistent with the current forecast regarding a relatively warm, but potent early season storm with the bulk of its impacts late tonight through Sunday evening (except into early Monday in Modoc County, and after the storm . dangerous high surf at beaches Sunday evening through Monday night). Those impacts include heavy rain in northern California, and strong winds at: the coast, Shasta Valley, much of the east side, over the higher terrain, and southern half of the Rogue Valley/from Medford southward. A focus for the regular afternoon issuance will be on the possibility of expanding the coverage of the wind advisory to include more of the east side as winds reach peak strength during Sunday morning and afternoon . with gusts potentially reaching the low end of criteria.

The northern end of the focus of heavy rain with this storm will include western and southern Siskiyou County, well warranting the Flood Watch and burn scar Flash Flood Watches that are in effect. The heaviest rain late tonight through Sunday morning will occur roughly in a box connecting Eureka to Mt. Shasta on the north end and San Francisco to Sacramento to Lake Tahoe on the south end.

A series of weaker disturbances will move across our area next week with the next front of any appreciable strength possibly arriving around Thursday night into Friday.

AVIATION. 23/12Z TAFs . Expect a mix of MVFR/VFR with areas of higher terrain obscured and some light rain into this morning as a frontal system moves through. Showers linger behind the front into the afternoon, but will become isolated as ceilings rise to VFR in most areas (though areas of MVFR will persist). Tonight into Sunday, a much stronger front will move in. Expect more widespread low level wind shear to precede the front late tonight, with strong, gusty surface winds expected to develop as it moves closer later at night and into Sunday. This front will deliver another round of moderate to heavy rainfall, with freezing levels surging to around 9000-10000 ft Sunday morning before dropping to 6000 feet by Sunday evening. -Spilde/Keene

MARINE. Updated 830 AM PDT Saturday 23 October 2021 . The next front is moving onshore this morning, bringing mostly Small Craft Advisory winds to the area, but there may be isolated gale force gusts.

Very deep low pressure well offshore early Sunday morning (943mb is similar pressure to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane) will send a strong front onshore. Dangerous marine conditions are expected early Sunday through at least Monday. Storm force southerly winds are expected from Cape Blanco northward with gales south of Cape Blanco early Sunday morning through late Sunday morning. Historically large west swell will follow the front and very high and very steep seas will continue into Tuesday. Along the shoreline, breaking wave heights around 35 feet are possible.

Very high and very steep seas will persist into Tuesday. Winds and seas will subside Tuesday, but seas will remain steep through Wednesday. Keene

BEACH HAZARDS. Updated 7 AM PDT Saturday 23 October 2021 . Beaches and coastlines will become hazardous due to very large and life- threatening surf conditions as breaking waves approach 28 to 35 feet from Sunday evening to Tuesday morning. Breaking waves will create very hazardous conditions along beaches and area shorelines. Waves will inundate beaches and surge into normally dry areas. Stay off of beaches, rocks, jetties, and piers. Infrastructure damage and significant beach erosion can be expected.

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 452 AM PDT Sat Oct 23 2021/

DISCUSSION . The active pattern will continue for the next several days with a series of storms moving through the area. The front moving int today will not be as strong as the one that moved through the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Precipitation amounts will be less and while there will be gusty winds east of the Cascades, they will not reach advisory or high wind criteria.

The main event and likely the main concern in the forecast period will be late tonight through Sunday night. Two impacts from this storm will be moderate to strong winds and heavy precipitation, especially in northern California and possibly the coastal mountains in southwest Oregon. Both of these will be discussed below.

There's good agreement a surface low will rapidly deepen near 136W and 44N Saturday night and moving northeast towards Vancouver Island by Monday morning. The operational models are in good agreement showing the surface low bottoming out at 943 mb around 5 am PDT Sunday morning which is pretty significant. In comparison, hurricanes that are classified category 3 or 4 can have surface low pressure close to this value. Additionally, the ECMWF ensemble showing individual surface low locations are packed close together and are in pretty good agreement with the operational models.

Bottom line is confidence is high for strong winds at the south coast, headlands, Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades. 700 mb flow of 60-75 kt is forecast over northern California and southern Oregon ahead of the front, and with strong surface gradients, strong winds are likely for our typical wind-prone areas. The Rogue Valley will also be under the threat for moderate to strong winds as well. Right now, the window of opportunity for strong winds at the coast is expected to be from later night until around late morning Sunday. This evening into Sunday afternoon for the Shasta Valley. Tonight into Sunday morning for the Rogue Valley, late tonight into Sunday night east of the Cascades. Various high wind warnings and advisories remain in effect for the areas noted above. One thing to note: With leaves still on trees and wet soils, there is an increased concern for falling or damaged trees. Details on all the wind headlines can be found at NPWMFR.

Moderate to heavy precipitation is likely later Saturday night into Sunday morning for Oregon and Saturday night into Sunday afternoon in Northern California. This lines up with WPC's excessive rainfall outlook which has our northern California zones in both a marginal risk and slight risk for excessive rainfall. In addition, the IVT (Integrated Water Vapor Transport) puts the bulls eye in the areas that WPC has highlighted (Northern Cal). So while Oregon will still have a chance to pick up significant amounts of precipitation, the duration is not expected to be as long. This is due in part to a significant onshore component which will aid in additional moisture getting wring out along the coast, coastal mountains in Oregon and mountains in western Siskiyou county. Drought conditions have left rivers and reservoirs low and with plenty of capacity, so main stem flooding is not likely, but small streams and and location with blocked drainages could see ponding or overflows. However, given were expecting about a 15 hour duration of moderate to heavy rain, flooding is also possible in portions of western Siskiyou county and around the Mount Shasta area. Flash Flood Watches remain in effect for burn scars in Siskiyou County, and details can be found at PDXFFAMFR. Also an areal flood watch will is also in effect, please see PDXFAAMFR for more details on the Flood Watch.

The front on Sunday is expected to sag south into northern Cal in the afternoon with precipitation rates diminishing. Meanwhile the surface low will move inside of 130W Sunday night as it moves northeast towards Vancouver Island. At the same time an upper low will send multiple impulses through our area resulting in a continuation of showers Sunday night through Monday. Snow levels will come down Sunday night to around 5000 feet by Monday morning. It's a pretty good bet roads leading up to Crater Lake and Diamond Lake will have road snow by Monday morning, but the subsurface road temperatures are still likely holding heat that will put a cap on the amount of road snow in these areas. Lake of the Woods will be a close call, but could not rule out some roadside slush by Monday morning. The upper trough will move east with a relative break in the action Monday evening, but once again, this will not last long with a warm front approaching later Monday night into Tuesday. This warm front is not expected to be a big precip producer and snow levels will be rising late Monday through Tuesday, therefore snow and flooding concerns are expected to be low.

There's some evidence among the operational models and ensemble means that we could catch a relative break in the weather next Wednesday into Friday. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Wind Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for ORZ030-031. Wind Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for ORZ030-031. High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ021-022. High Surf Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ021-022. Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ026.

CA . High Wind Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for CAZ085. Wind Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for CAZ085. Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for CAZ080-082. Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for CAZ080-083. High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Storm Warning from 1 AM to 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-370. Gale Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning until noon PDT today for PZZ350-370.

DW/BR-y/MB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 64 mi61 min S 16G20 56°F 53°F1008.3 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 65 mi55 min SSW 25G28 53°F 54°F1007.4 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 67 mi33 min SSW 14G18 51°F1008.6 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sexton Summit, OR14 mi77 minSE 9 G 160.15 miLight Rain Fog42°F40°F92%1007.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSXT

Wind History from SXT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SW8S6----S8S9
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2 days agoS9
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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Sat -- 02:17 AM PDT     5.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:34 AM PDT     2.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:39 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:41 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:23 PM PDT     6.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:22 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:25 PM PDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:25 AM PDT     5.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:46 AM PDT     2.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:42 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:31 PM PDT     6.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:22 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:08 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:37 PM PDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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