Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 4:15 AM   Moonset 6:59 PM

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FXUS61 KBGM 071920 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 320 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Sunny and dry weather expected this afternoon but a warm front moving in tonight brings the threat for showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Tomorrow, a cold front moves through with the threat for a few isolated strong storms in the late morning and early afternoon. Cooler and showery weather is expected late week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
230 PM update...

Sunny skies with a pocket of dry air moving through aloft evident in water vapor imagery has caused dew points to fall with day time mixing. Winds are fairly light but relative humidities have fallen to around 30 percent for much of the region. Deeper moisture is trying to make its way in from central PA so NEPA is fairing a bit better with RH this afternoon. Tonight, a warm front lifts in with clouds increasing as well as a threat for some rain showers and elevated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings do get up near 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE and with 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, there is a small threat for some hail though hail size overnight should stay sub severe with CAPE being skinny.

Tomorrow is looking a bit more interesting as there is a weak elevated mixed layer moving through in the morning to early afternoon where mid level lapse rates get up over 7 C/km with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots associated with a jet streak moving overhead. Some of the CAMs do get to have over 1000 J/km of surface based CAPE in the afternoon with little capping. Despite there being good lapse rates and weakly capped surface based CAPE is the lack of a trigger at the time we have the ingredients in place for severe storms. There is a 500 mb vorticity wave moving through northern NY so right now the NY thruway corridor has the best chance at seeing a stronger storm in the afternoon with large hail and wind being the main threat if a storm can get going. Decided to keep at least a slight chance of thunderstorms in the grids for tomorrow afternoon as any outflow from storms farther away could trigger storms to develop later in the day despite no mid level triggers.

Wednesday night is looking cooler with a cold front dropping south and skies clearing and dry air advecting in at lower levels of the atmosphere. With stronger boundary layer winds, temperatures were not lowered below model guidance yet but if there can be some decoupling, good radiational cooling will cause temperatures to fall below forecasted values.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Low pressure will track eastward from the Ohio Valley to the east coast Thursday and Thursday night. Enough lift and moisture will overrun a warm front to result in the development of showers. The coverage of showers is actually a bit more uncertain and will depend on how convection evolves over the next couple of days. Some of the modeling is trending south with this 12Z cycle. That is an entirely plausible outcome with convection involved. Still the bulk of ensemble data shows about half an inch of QPF with locally higher amounts in NE PA and the Southern Tier of NY. Clouds and showers will likely keep temperatures in the 60's during the day then only fall into the 50's at night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The previously mentioned low pressure system looks to linger on Friday keeping some showers around. A broad mid-level trough will continue to be over the region with several additional weak cold fronts and disturbances to keep some chances of showers around most days with the highest chances this weekend. Chilly as well with lows in the 40's and highs getting into the 50's/60's. Actual timing of the disturbances is still highly uncertain.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions expected through at least 0Z this evening before showers and possibly thunderstorms move in tonight after 6Z. Dry air initially will prevent cigs from falling until the time that the rain arrives at the terminals. BGM and AVP have the best chance at seeing IFR cigs as there are better odds of better moisture arriving later in the night. There is some instability as the showers move through so thunder is possible but confidence is too low to include in the TAF yet. Heavy rain showers were added for the best estimated timing of the potential thunderstorms. Tomorrow, winds pick up and drier air moves back in with VFR conditions returning to all terminals by 18Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon... isolated yet gusty thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions.

Wednesday night through Sunday...Periods of showers with some restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region, especially Thursday-Friday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

Tivoli
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Tue -- 01:37 AM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:07 PM EDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT     Moonset
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Catskill
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Tue -- 02:28 AM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:21 AM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:58 PM EDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:27 PM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
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Catskill, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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