Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 7:45 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202404281515;;512921 Fzus51 Kbuf 280810 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 410 am edt Sun apr 28 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-281515- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 410 am edt Sun apr 28 2024
Today - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers from late morning on. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - East winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 281950 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 350 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS

A frontal wave will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area this evening. Lingering clouds and areas of fog are expected overnight into early Monday morning. A warm front will bisect the area on Monday, with partly sunny and very warm conditions from the Twin Tiers south across NE PA. The next front arrives Tuesday with a better chance for more widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Remaining very warm, with well above average temperatures through the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

340 PM Update

Main concern in the near term are the potential for scattered thunderstorms this evening across the Southern Tier and NE PA.

MLCAPE values are being held in check by mostly cloudy skies and limited daytime heating from the northern tier of PA northward across all of CNY at this time. Current analysis shows only up to 250 J/kg, with sfc based LIs of 0 to -2 over the southern half of the forecast area. Bulk effective layer shear is between 25-35 kts out there this afternoon. With more clearing and temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s now from Towanda south to Avoca and Hazleton...this will be the most likely area to watch for scattered thunderstorm development over the next several hours. Latest CAMs such as the 18z HRRR show t'storm development by 4-5 PM over the NY Southern Tier , with a line of storms then dropping south toward the Wyoming Valley & Poconos between 5 to 9 PM this evening. There remains an outside chance for a stray stronger storm to develop, with a possible isolated instance of small hail or gusty winds.
Guidance continues to show MLCAPE reaching 300-500 J/kg over this region before the storms move in.

Further north the rest of the evening will be dominated by clouds and occasional rain showers, with thunderstorms being unlikely due to limited/ non-existent instability. The main concern up this way across Central NY will be the front sagging south overnight, bringing a relatively cooler air mass, which combined with light winds to produce areas of fog. Overnight lows dip into the 50s.

On Monday, the latest guidance has finally come into better agreement on where the quasi-stationary warm front will set up.
Based on some of the hi-res guidance the front looks to be located right along the US-20 corridor for much of the day. Along and north of this front low clouds and stratus linger most of the day and temperatures only reach the 60s to low 70s. South of the front, the clouds scatter out by late morning, with partly sunny and very warm conditions expected. With the upper level heights building overhead any shower or t'storm development will be isolated. There will be plenty of instability (1000 J/kg SBCAPE) but no lifting mechanism to get the storms initiated. Highs range from the upper 70s to mid-80s south of the front across the Twin Tiers and all of NE PA.

Generally quiet and warm weather Monday night, with perhaps just a few showers riding across the top of the ridge. Muggy for late April with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s expected.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
300 PM Update...

Tuesday remains a tricky forecast at this time. The ridge sitting overhead should break down Monday night, allowing a trough to move into the region from the west and bring SW flow across the area. Warm and moist air should move into the region, with morning temperatures rising into the 60s to low 70s with dewpoints in the low 60s. The big question here is will sky cover be too thick to allow sufficient surface heating to break a modeled cap between 700-600mb. Showers are expected to ride the western edge of the ridge, west of our region Monday night into Tuesday morning, which should pump clouds into the area.
Guidance is still unsure on how the event evolves, with some incorporating more clouds and less instability, while others are showing less clouds and more instability. Temperatures are currently forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s, but a few degrees difference either higher or lower makes a large impact on the severe weather chances. Sifting through it all, leaning on the lower values of 500-1000j/kg of CAPE and 0-6km bulk shear between 25-35kts seems reasonable at this time, stretching from NEPA into Delaware/Otsego counties. This should be sufficient to generate scattered severe thunderstorms ahead of the approaching front, but timing of the trough and front arrival is still uncertain, with the longer range CAMs showing a quicker, late morning arrival vs. global models which show a slower, wetter solution.

Hydrologically, PWATs of 1-1.30in(2-3 standard deviations higher than normal) imply enough moisture for heavy downpours and corfidi vectors show training potential in the afternoon.
Warm cloud depths of 7-8k ft are not optimal for heavy rain production, but tall enough that heavy downpours are possible.
All of these point to a chance for localized flooding under heavy rain. Adding confidence to this is WPC has put us in a marginal outlook for excessive rainfall.

Rain chances linger, especially east of I-81 Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper level trough slowly moves eastward.
Temperatures Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 50s.

A ridge will quickly follow the departing front/trough on Wednesday, building in from the SW and keeping warm air in the region. Skies will clear from SW to NE, allowing highs to climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s. High pressure remains in control Wednesday night, keeping lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
330 PM Update...

Thursday and most of Friday should be quiet and warm, with temps climbing into the 70s. The next system will arrive during the weekend as a low pressure center over the north central US climbs north into Canada and pushes a frontal boundary through the region, bringing another round of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Sat and Sun. Guidance remains unsure on the timing and strength of this feature so the NBM solution was relied upon.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
1730Z Update

VFR areawide currently, however showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over the region between 18 to 24z this afternoon/evening. These will bring occasional restrictions, with the best chance to see a t'storm at ELM, ITH, BGM and AVP where tempo groups were added to the TAFs (mainly 19-24z). SYR and RME have less instability, with only rain showers expected.

The frontal boundary drops back south into Central NY/Twin Tiers later this evening and overnight. Winds become light and variable with low stratus and areas of fog likely to develop after sunset. RME and SYR are the first sites to go MVFR Fuel Alt by 20-22z, then IFR or lower here after 00-03z this evening.

Further south, ITH, ELM and BGM fall to IFR by 03-08z tonight, with both CIG and VSBY restrictions. Below Alternate Minimum restrictions are possible at all 3 sites for a time late tonight into early Monday. The lower stratus clouds stall near or just north of AVP, bringing perhaps a short window of MVFR restrictions late tonight into mid-morning Monday, with some patchy light fog around here too.

The CIGs lift up, out of IFR by quickly between 13-16z Monday, and mainly VFR by 18z...except still lingering MVFR at SYR and RME on the north side of the warm front.

Outlook...

Monday Afternoon...Lingering MVFR SYR and RME. VFR expected for the rest of our taf sites

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Lingering morning clouds and restrictions possible, becoming VFR in the afternoon.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday..Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t'storms possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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