Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Hill, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:15PM Thursday October 21, 2021 4:23 PM EDT (20:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 7:17AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202110212115;;035944 Fzus51 Kbuf 211446 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1046 Am Edt Thu Oct 21 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-212115- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1046 Am Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers late this morning. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 64 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Hill, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 211959 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 359 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A frontal system moving through the area will bring rain showers tonight and usher in a cooler weather pattern for Friday and into the weekend. Spotty rain showers at times but mostly dry weather is expected through the weekend. Unsettled weather returns early next week with cooler temperatures expected.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Mostly clear skies across the CWA will stay around into the late afternoon hours as high pressure slides to the east. Temperatures this will continue to be wonderful . reaching the upper 60s to low 70s across the area. Today will be the last day of warmth as the next weather system will move into the area this evening, bringing rain and colder conditions for Friday and into the weekend.

An upper level low pressure system centered over the Hudson Bay will push a shortwave trough into our region from the west. Currently, the shortwave is located over the eastern Great Lakes and its positioning here is allowing southwest flow across the CWA . which is helping keep temperatures warm and advecting in some moist air. A pre-frontal trough ahead of the shortwave will tap into the moisture and bring rain showers to the area late in the afternoon into the overnight hours. The timing of the troughs arrival and movement through the CWA will be after peak heating . limiting convection development However. weak instability will allow for a chance for isolated embedded thunderstorms to develop across the Finger Lakes Region and western Southern Tier . spreading to the NE into the Mohawk Valley. A nice layer of 30-40kt around 850mb will allow for a chance of gusty winds during a stronger storm. Convection chances will extinguish before midnight as instability wanes. Rain showers associated with the pre-frontal trough will exit the region overnight. Lows will dip into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Friday morning . the cold front associated with the shortwave will move into the area. Enough low level moisture will be present to allow for some scattered light rain showers to occur as the front pushes through. WNW flow behind the front will also develop some lake effect rain showers . especially over the Mohawk Valley and southern Tug Hill. A shortwave moving through Northern PA will bring a chance of light scattered rain showers across NEPA during the afternoon and again overnight as another shortwave slides through.

Highs on Friday are expected to be in the low to mid 50s . with the Wyoming Valley pushing the low 60s. With the cold airmass firmly in place . lows Friday night will be in the upper 30s to low 40s across the CWA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. 350 PM Update .

Weather for the weekend will be dominated by an upper low spinning over Ontario and western Quebec. Shortwaves passing through our west/southwesterly flow could be enough to touch off stray showers during the day Saturday. Any accumulations should be light, below a tenth of an inch. Some stray lake effect rain showers will be possible along and north of the Thruway overnight and through Sunday, and we cannot rule out a few snowflakes mixing in early Sunday. However, most of the area remains dry Sunday into Sunday night amid weak ridging. Expect temperatures during the weekend to start off in the upper 30s and lower 40s, or perhaps even into the mid 30s in the higher elevations. Highs will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. 350 PM Update .

The extended period continues to look fairly unsettled. A surface low developing over the central US will gradually move eastward towards the Mississippi Valley, and a warm front moving northward out ahead of this will touch off our next chances for some showers into early Monday. The surface low continues to move towards the mid Atlantic Tuesday and off the coast into Wednesday. However, the presence of a surface high over eastern Canada continues to lead to uncertainty regarding timing and track of the low pressure system. If this can keep the surface low on a more easterly than northeasterly track, than most of the associated precipitation would remain to our south across central PA. Will continue to rely on the NBM for our pops for the first half of the week given that uncertainty.

A potential for some wraparound moisture will keep in a slight chance for showers through Wednesday, but most of the area will briefly turn dry with ridging overhead. Wednesday night into Thursday, a trough digging into the central US, and an associated cold front, will start to pivot towards our region, with chances for showers returning by early Thursday. Tining differences persist, with the GFS breaking down the ridge sooner than the rest of the guidance.

Temperatures through the extended will be fairly seasonal, peaking in the 50s and falling into the 30s and 40s. Those lower nighttime temperatures will allow for the possibility of some snow mixing in with any showers, mainly over the higher elevations of the Catskills and northern Oneida county.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR conditions are expected across all terminals through the afternoon hours. An approaching front will move through the region this evening bringing rain showers and isolated spots of thunder . with the best chances at ELM/ITH/SYR terminals. Thunder will be isolated so confidence was not high enough to include it in the TAFs. Ceilings should hover above MVFR for all NY terminals during rainfall through the evening and into the overnight hours . then fall to MVFR and Fuel Alt as the overnight progresses and colder air filters in. AVP should stay out of the majority of the rain showers . thus keeping conditons VFR into the morning. NW flow behind the front will keep clouds over the area with MVFR/IFR ceilings across the terminals through the morning hours. There will be isolated rain showers during the morning as a secondary cold front pushes through . but confidence in location of these showers was not high enough to mention in the TAFs.

If we can get winds to decouple at KELM . there will be a chance for IFR fog conditions during the early morning hours. This was mentioned in the TAFs as ELM is prone to fog.

Outlook .

Friday Afternoon . Behind a cold front, MVFR ceilings should remain but gradually improve.

Friday Night through Sunday . Mainly VFR, but minor restrictions and spotty lake-enhanced showers possible for mainly NY terminals as cool air keeps feeding in around Canadian low.

Sunday night through Tuesday . Small chance for showers and associated restrictions; low confidence for whether a system moves into the region.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . JTC NEAR TERM . JTC SHORT TERM . HLC LONG TERM . HLC AVIATION . JTC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 72 mi53 min S 12G18 68°F 1007.9 hPa51°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi83 min SSW 4.1G6 67°F 1009.5 hPa
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi53 min 65°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY5 mi27 minSW 11 G 1710.00 miFair71°F50°F47%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3N5N50NE3NE3E40SE3E3000S4E7E4SE4S7S5SE7S7S8S13
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1 day agoW12W8W9W8W8W7W7W7W503W7W6W6W50W56W8W10W15
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2 days agoNW8NW8NW9NW12N40NW4W10NW11NW12NW10NW8W4W6W50W7W6W12NW15W13W11NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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