Tuesday, September28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pinckney, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:22PM Tuesday September 28, 2021 12:25 PM EDT (16:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:49PMMoonset 2:01PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0084.000000t0000z-210915t0115z/ 910 Pm Edt Tue Sep 14 2021
.the special marine warning will expire at 915 pm edt... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 pm edt for southeastern michigan...the adjacent waters of lake erie...and the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair. Lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4225 8318 4233 8312 4236 8304 4237 8292 4236 8293 4234 8296 4232 8306 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 0110z 269deg 30kt 4235 8277 4201 8296 4172 8352
LCZ423 Expires:202109150120;;632078 FZUS73 KDTX 150110 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 910 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 LCZ423-LEZ444-150120-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinckney, MI
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location: 42.42, -83.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 280928 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 528 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

AVIATION.

Elevated frontal zone will exit south of the state line between 10Z- 12Z and will take with it the low-end VFR stratus that swept across all terminal sites during the overnight period. The final concern for the TAF period will be the low-level northeast flow that is advecting moisture from Lake Huron inland. Latest nighttime satellite trends show shallow patches of IFR/MVFR cigs across the northern Thumb. Model guidance suggests lake moisture trajectories heading towards KFNT around 11-12Z, possibly making it south towards KPTK around the same time frame. This could bring a brief period of IFR/MVFR cigs between 11-13Z, with dry air advection/afternoon heating then quickly lifting any low ceilings that develop. While this is a possibility, confidence in this playing out is low and thus is only represented with a IFR/MVFR SCT group, until additional evidence is noted in satellite. Otherwise, high pressure in place today will bring clear skies to all TAF locations this afternoon and evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 302 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

DISCUSSION .

Lingering post frontal low clouds will exit south of the forecast area this morning as dry air associated with mid level anticyclonic flow and associated sfc high pressure expand into Se Mi from the north. Ongoing shallow low level cold air advection and the late September sun angle will significantly limit afternoon mixing depths. Nonetheless, full sun and the dry low level environment overhead by afternoon will support those model solutions which push mixing depths up toward 3-4k feet. This will allow highs to range from the upper 60s to low 70s, with cooler readings along Lake Huron with the onshore flow. Model RH progs suggest some mid clouds will advance from north to south across Se Mi tonight into early Wednesday, forming along the nose of an upper jet max that will track across the ern Great Lakes over the next 24 hours.

Conditions will otherwise remain very benign across Se Mi through the rest of the work week as a strong blocking pattern emerges across NOAM. Se Mi will be within the mid level confluence between high amplitude ridging over the wrn Great Lakes and a deep upper low across ern Canada/New England. This will allow a persistence of deep layer subsidence and sfc high pressure over the region through the end of the work week, allowing an extended stretch of dry weather. Limited thermal advection will hold high temps mainly in the mid 60s to low 70s, with dry boundary layer conditions supportive of cool nights with lows mainly in the 40s. Although the medium range model solutions and their ensemble members diverge this weekend, there is an overall consensus of the blocking pattern breaking down. Several members drive some increased moisture into srn Mi this weekend ahead of a wave forecast to lift into the region from the southwest. While this pattern is suggestive of an increase in rain chances this weekend, model spread still results in a relatively low confidence forecast Saturday into early next week.

MARINE .

Quiet marine conditions through today with light post frontal winds out of the northeast. A high amplitude central United States ridge with a surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes region will allow favorable marine conditions to persist through the end of the week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . AM DISCUSSION . SC MARINE . AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 54 mi25 min NE 8 G 11 62°F 1017.3 hPa (+1.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 55 mi55 min ENE 11 G 13 62°F 1015.6 hPa56°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI15 mi30 minN 410.00 miFair62°F52°F69%1017.3 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi32 minNE 910.00 miFair66°F50°F56%1016.4 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi32 minNE 910.00 miFair70°F52°F53%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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SW5W7W9W7W3CalmN5NE4NE4CalmCalmN3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE6CalmNE3NE6
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W11W5CalmCalmCalmS3S3SW3SW3SW3SW3CalmCalmSW3SW3SW7W6W7SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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