Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 3:54 PM   Moonset 2:52 AM

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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 443 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon edt today - .
Today - Light and variable winds. Areas of dense fog through early afternoon, then patchy fog late. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Areas of fog. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 191859 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 259 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like warmth is expected through mid-week. Mainly dry weather is expected through Tuesday before chances for showers and thunderstorms increase with the passage of a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Cooler weather will follow the front for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid level ridge and surface high pressure building into the region will provide dry weather tonight. Likely will see another round of fog tonight, although low level moisture looks to be a bit less, probably keeping fog not as widespread or dense as last night. It will be another mild night with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Summer-like warmth starts to build into the region Monday. Mid level ridge remains over the area Monday as surface high pressure slides to the east. For the most part Monday looks dry, but there is an outside chance for a shower or storm on a lake breeze boundary during peak heating. Temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above normal with most highs in the lower to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Heading into Monday night in the upper levels of the atmosphere, a large trough will be spread across the Rockies, while a ridge will span across the eastern half of the United States. Meanwhile, within the trough to the west, a shortwave trough will be in the midst passing east across the Upper Great Lakes. Translating this pattern down to the surface, the longwave trough aloft to the west will support a surface low over the Central Plains with a cold front to extend southward across the rest of the Plains, where it will gradually traverse northeast throughout the first half of the week.
Additionally, the shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes Monday night will support a surface low over northern Canada, placing its weakening frontal boundary to the north of the region Monday night through Tuesday, as surface high pressure elongated along the Northeast's Atlantic coastline remains strong to support primarily dry warm weather. Given the surface pattern, a southeasterly breeze Tuesday will support temperatures in the low to mid 80s with a few locations across the southern Genesee Valley reaching 90.

As the surface low passes northeast across the upper Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday, an approaching cold front will support showers and thunderstorms to pass across the area from west to east.
Speaking of thunderstorms, provided the favorable timing some storms may have the potential of becoming well developed, as there will be plenty of instability with CAPE values surge towards 2500-3000 J/kg and lapse rates reach upwards of 8C/km, along with shear values of +150 m^2/s^2. Showers and thunderstorms will then continue into Wednesday night as the cold front passes across the area. Otherwise expect another warm day Wednesday with highs surging into the low to mid 80s across the higher terrain and the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Cold front will be exiting our region Thursday, with a much drier airmass settling into the region. A reinforcing secondary cold front will lower 850 hPa temperatures into the mid single digits by Friday morning, that with light winds should allow for mid 40s Thursday night well inland, to around 50 near the Lakes.

High pressure will bring a dry start to the Memorial Day weekend with moderating temperatures back to and above normal. There is a potential hiccup, and that is for a potential return flow of low level moisture that will bring clouds and light showers to the region later Saturday and Saturday night as advertised by the 12Z GFS and some of the ensemble members of the GFS/ECMWF. For now will have slight chance PoPs until better agreement of this potential return flow low level moisture by the models. The next system/shortwave of note that will bring showers and thunderstorms will arrive from the west later Sunday or Monday. There is still a good deal of uncertainty with this feature, in part due to the uncertainty in the timeframe ahead of it.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions expected for this afternoon with sct-bkn030-050 inland from the lakes. There may be a stray shower toward the upper Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region late this afternoon, but confidence in this is low.

Widespread VFR through the first half of tonight. There will be the possibility for some fog once again for the second half of tonight, however it is not expected to be as widespread or dense as last night.

Outlook...
Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Not much airmass change over the lower Great Lakes tonight which will keep the potential for more dense fog to develop. The greatest chance of this looks to be across Lake Ontario.

Otherwise, light winds with minimal wave action expected on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes, but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front into the eastern Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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