Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Apple River, IL
May 5, 2024 9:41 AM CDT (14:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:45 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 3:27 AM Moonset 4:23 PM |
Area Discussion for - Quad Cities, IA/IL
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FXUS63 KDVN 051028 AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 528 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for showers and storms through next week.
- A potent dynamic system arriving Monday night to Tuesday will bring a more significant severe threat in the region, and possibly our CWA
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Despite the cool start that looks in store this morning, today will be a nearly ideal late spring day, with ample sunshine, dry air, light winds, and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. If you're able, get out an enjoy this fabulous weather today!
Quiet weather looks to last through tonight and Monday morning, as surface high pressure keeps the moisture shunted well south of Iowa. Lows tonight will fall to the 40s again, with lower to mid 70s expected for highs Monday. Monday will see increasing humidity through the day, but deep moisture should not spread into the area until Monday night. This means most all of Monday now appears dry, with the focus for both rain and severe weather holding closer to the Plains and Missouri Valley region.
Monday night, in a mature to decaying phase, this forcing and deep moisture will arrived in our area.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Models are now showing a more consistent signal that Monday night will be the best chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms in the coming days. As stated in the short term, a mature to decaying phase of MCS/QLCS should arrive from the west during the late evening. This convection will most affect our entire area between Midnight and 10 AM Monday night/Tuesday AM.
PWAT values over 1.25 are forecast with this strong WAA forcing.
Thus, rainfall on the order of 0.75 to 1.25 is likely where storms maintain a mature convective signature, while lesser totals are expected in the east 1/3 where dissipating convection is more likely very late Monday night/Tue AM.
There will be deep layer shear around 40-50kts overnight, but little boundary layer instability to work with. Some organized wind threat seems possible in mature QLCS in our western areas, but this will probably lose it's punch as it heads east encountering more stable air at lower levels. SPC has our southwest in Marginal (lvl 1 of 5).
Tuesday is questionable with placement of the surface boundaries. Nearly all deterministic models suggest that the surface boundary for active storms will be south of the area Tuesday, with additional placement of storms closer to the low center located well north of the area. A SPC forecast of Marginal (lvl 1) will be in place over our Illinois counties.
Beyond this early week busyness, all guidance suggests a broad deep upper trof will build into the Great Lakes through the end of the week. This will bring cooler weather, along with frequent, somewhat diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. Highs in the 60s are forecast, but pending cloud cover, we could be limited as low as the mid 50s in this pattern. Rainfall, while not heavy, could see daily totals of ~0.25 inch in scattered showers/storms.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 522 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Clear skies are in control early this morning and will continue though the day. Light north/northwest winds will remain well under 10 kts this morning, and should stay light all day, but turn slowly to the east or southeast by late afternoon.
Visibility has been excellent, but some shallow fog around Waterloo IA, suggests it's possible in the next hour or so at CID, but am leaving it out as current obs are 10SM there.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 528 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Upper level pattern remains active, with periodic chances for showers and storms through next week.
- A potent dynamic system arriving Monday night to Tuesday will bring a more significant severe threat in the region, and possibly our CWA
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Despite the cool start that looks in store this morning, today will be a nearly ideal late spring day, with ample sunshine, dry air, light winds, and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. If you're able, get out an enjoy this fabulous weather today!
Quiet weather looks to last through tonight and Monday morning, as surface high pressure keeps the moisture shunted well south of Iowa. Lows tonight will fall to the 40s again, with lower to mid 70s expected for highs Monday. Monday will see increasing humidity through the day, but deep moisture should not spread into the area until Monday night. This means most all of Monday now appears dry, with the focus for both rain and severe weather holding closer to the Plains and Missouri Valley region.
Monday night, in a mature to decaying phase, this forcing and deep moisture will arrived in our area.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Models are now showing a more consistent signal that Monday night will be the best chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms in the coming days. As stated in the short term, a mature to decaying phase of MCS/QLCS should arrive from the west during the late evening. This convection will most affect our entire area between Midnight and 10 AM Monday night/Tuesday AM.
PWAT values over 1.25 are forecast with this strong WAA forcing.
Thus, rainfall on the order of 0.75 to 1.25 is likely where storms maintain a mature convective signature, while lesser totals are expected in the east 1/3 where dissipating convection is more likely very late Monday night/Tue AM.
There will be deep layer shear around 40-50kts overnight, but little boundary layer instability to work with. Some organized wind threat seems possible in mature QLCS in our western areas, but this will probably lose it's punch as it heads east encountering more stable air at lower levels. SPC has our southwest in Marginal (lvl 1 of 5).
Tuesday is questionable with placement of the surface boundaries. Nearly all deterministic models suggest that the surface boundary for active storms will be south of the area Tuesday, with additional placement of storms closer to the low center located well north of the area. A SPC forecast of Marginal (lvl 1) will be in place over our Illinois counties.
Beyond this early week busyness, all guidance suggests a broad deep upper trof will build into the Great Lakes through the end of the week. This will bring cooler weather, along with frequent, somewhat diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. Highs in the 60s are forecast, but pending cloud cover, we could be limited as low as the mid 50s in this pattern. Rainfall, while not heavy, could see daily totals of ~0.25 inch in scattered showers/storms.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 522 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024
Clear skies are in control early this morning and will continue though the day. Light north/northwest winds will remain well under 10 kts this morning, and should stay light all day, but turn slowly to the east or southeast by late afternoon.
Visibility has been excellent, but some shallow fog around Waterloo IA, suggests it's possible in the next hour or so at CID, but am leaving it out as current obs are 10SM there.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
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Quad Cities, IA,
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