Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Breedsville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 6:50PM Saturday October 23, 2021 4:30 PM EDT (20:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:32PMMoonset 10:03AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 405 Pm Edt Sat Oct 23 2021
.gale warning in effect from Sunday evening through Monday evening...
Through early evening..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering east late at night, then veering southeast 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots late in the day. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..East winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots toward daybreak. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds around 25 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ845 Expires:202110240800;;153129 FZUS53 KGRR 232005 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-240800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Breedsville, MI
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location: 42.46, -86.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 231932 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 332 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

- Showers end then some clearing / frost expected overnight

- Wet and windy storm Sunday night into Monday

- Dry and cool mid week

- Next system Thursday into Saturday

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

- Showers end then some clearing / frost expected overnight

The combination of a shortwave on the back edge of the upper cold pool as it pulls out of this area, in combination with some day time heating and Lake Michigan aided instability, we are getting some vigorous rain showers this afternoon. The moisture is just deep enough (inversion height near 8000 ft).

As the back edge of the upper cool pool moves east of the area this evening, the sky will clear slowly from southwest to northeast. Winds will go light and variable toward morning as a weak surface ridge moves through the area. This will set the stage for the coldest night of the season in most of our CWA. Most area will have lows in the lower to mid 30s. We have issued a frost advisory for the counties away from Lake Michigan (US-131 and east) for the counties still in play for such headlines.

- Wet and windy storm Sunday night into Monday

The models have been very consistent with the system on Sunday night into Monday. This system is one in a series of systems that will come out that persistent western trough. With an omega block in central Canada, the storms can't head northeast into Canada as they would typically do at this time of year. This first system will do just that and have it's center track near I-80 Monday. It will have a coupled jet, strong mid level FGEN and good isentropic ascent. The GFS ensemble mean is nearly 2 inches for Grand Rapids, just over 2 inches for Kalamazoo. The rain moves in later Sunday afternoon, it will have to overcome some low level dry air at first but that will not be a problem given all the moisture being feed into the system. The rain will be heavy at times near and south of I-96 Sunday night into midday Monday. The heaviest rain will be south of I-94 where over 2 inches of rain is expected. Areas near and north of Route 10 will see only some light rain Monday during the day.

The rain should come to and end Monday evening as the system starts pulling out of the area. Lake effect rain showers are not expected as winds will remain northeast into Tuesday at low levels.

This will be a very windy system as there is a strong pressures gradient between the 1030 mb high near Hudson Bay and the 1000 mb low near Benton Harbor at sunrise Monday. The strong winds will continue into Monday evening.

- Dry and cool mid week

The next system will come out of the western trough by mid week. That will help build upstream shortwave ridge in front of it. Which means some clearly by later Tuesday and into Wednesday. The blocking upper high over central Canada remains in place however.

- Next system Thursday into Saturday

As the next system comes out of the western trough, it too has to go under the Canadian block (upper high over central Canada). This will result in a prolonged rain event as the system pivots south of us. By late in the week, another Pacific system finally pushes the Canadian block out of the way with a large storm system. That results in split flow which will cut of the colder air for later in the week. Anyway expect showers from later Thursday into Saturday.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Scattered showers will continue at GRR and LAN this afteroon and early evening. Some slightly heavier showers could bring brief periods of IFR though they will be isolated in nature. These showers will end by 00Z at the latest with VFR dominating overnight. Clouds will move in from the south tomorrow between 15Z to 18Z.

MARINE. Issued at 331 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

We have upgraded the gale watch to a gale warning for Sunday night into Monday. The ECMWF, NAM, and GFS all support gales over Lake Michigan Sunday night into Monday. Since the easterly flow and gradient remain in place into Monday evening, we extended the gale a few hours.

Not that this will happen . but the 12z run of the GFS has a powerhouse system early in the following week with STORM FORCE winds over Lake Michigan. This will need to be watched but it's a long way out and more than likely this will not actually happen but it is possible. There will be another system early in the following week.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ051-052- 057>059-065>067-072>074.

LM . Gale Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for LMZ844>847.



SYNOPSIS . WDM DISCUSSION . WDM AVIATION . Ostuno MARINE . WDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 9 mi50 min 13G14 51°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi60 min W 13G19 48°F 61°F1014.6 hPa41°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 32 mi90 min WNW 9.9G14 51°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.7)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 42 mi40 min NW 9.7G18 51°F 63°F3 ft1017.2 hPa36°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 54 mi40 min NNW 15G18 52°F 1016.2 hPa42°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI10 mi35 minNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy53°F36°F53%1016.3 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi37 minWNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F41°F74%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWA

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4SE4S4W8W11
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NW4N4NE30000S3000NE3NW5
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NW5W6W7NW8W7NW4
G14
1 day agoN17
G27
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N7NE10NE5NE7NE300000000SE30E6E4SE3SW4S7
2 days ago0SE3SE500S4S6S9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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