Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:50PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 1:06 AM CST (07:06 UTC) Moonrise 7:31PMMoonset 9:41AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1106 Pm Cst Tue Jan 18 2022
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..West wind 10 to 20 knots rising to 15 to 25 knots after midnight, then veering northwest early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then easing to 10 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Freezing spray. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:202201191100;;607073 FZUS53 KMKX 190506 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1106 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-191100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 190455 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1055 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

SHORT TERM. Issued at 315 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

Through Thursday .

* A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Porter County Indiana from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon for the potential for dangerous travel due to lake effect snow falling heavily at times.

A mild afternoon is being observed across northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana thanks to strong southerly flow that has brought in warmer air and allowed temperatures to reach into the upper 30s and lower 40s this afternoon. These mild conditions will change tonight as a strong cold front pushes through the area bringing with it blustery north-northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30 mph throughout the day on Wednesday. Temperatures will be dropping throughout the day Wednesday with the daily high expected to be reached around midnight and dropping into the teens by the afternoon. Even colder temperatures are in store for Wednesday night with lows in the single digits which when coupled with the blustery north-northwest winds will create windchills well below zero in the minus 10 to minus 20 range.

Precipitation along the afore mentioned front will be limited given the large expected amount of dry air aloft which should suppress any precipitation development. However, on the backside of the system a band of moisture is expected to move down the center of Lake Michigan Wednesday night into Thursday bringing with it a threat for robust lake-effect snow showers for portions of northwest Indiana. High resolution model guidance is in good support of bands of lake-effect snow developing along Porter County, IN and points eastward where strong surface convergence is expected to develop along with steep lapse rates and saturated low-levels that will support efficient snow production a few thousand feet above the surface. The strong lake induced instability and convergence and lower level lift should compensate for somewhat middling equilibrium levels of 7-9kft.

While some of the guidance indicates that the bulk of the snowfall could be east of our forecast area, there is about 50% confidence that an intense lake effect band or two could take shape and move into Porter County with a residence time of at least 3 hours. This scenario would generate snowfall rates upwards of one to two inches per hour of fluffy/high ratio snow, which would lead to dangerous travel conditions for the commutes on Thursday due to snow covered roads and reduced visibilities from intense snowfall and possibly blowing snow. Given these concerns a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Porter County, IN from 6 PM CST Wednesday through 6 PM CST Thursday, but the highest snow potential looks to be after midnight Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.

We're likely headed for needing at least an advisory for Porter, but with the potential for high impact conditions along a portion of I-80/94 corridor, wanted to raise awareness. The watch was issued in collaboration with WFO Northern Indiana, with LaPorte County Indiana and Berrien County MI included.

Yack/Castro

LONG TERM. Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

Thursday through Tuesday .

The upcoming pattern will feature colder than normal temperatures aligned with our climatologically coldest period of the winter season. In addition, active northwest flow will bring multiple clipper type disturbances into the region Saturday through Tuesday.

On Thursday evening, the lake effect snow focus and uncertainty will be tied to potential meso-low development over far southern Lake Michigan. Forecast soundings are still respectable during this time, but confidence is low in specifics, so have some mid chance PoPs into Porter County. If meso-low formation results in the band still being partially over land, could prolong at least moderate rates. Outside of the lake effect snow, ~1040 mb Arctic high pressure will be settling over the mid and upper MS Valley, with a cold night in store. Main limiting factor coming off today's snow melt will be lack of snow cover except for northwest portion of the CWA where lows of 0 to 5 below will be attainable and single digits to around 10F elsewhere. Light winds will keep wind chill values close to air temps.

After a quiet and chilly (upper teens to mid 20s F) Friday, the pattern will become more active, though with no moisture laden systems in northwest flow set-up. Anomalous western ridging (+PNA) will connect with ridging spiking to the north of Alaska (-EPO), keeping deep trough axis centered from Hudson Bay through the Great Lakes. The first disturbance we're watching on Saturday is along/ahead of a cold front packing reinforcing surge of cold air. Really limited moisture and light QPF output on the guidance but decent forcing amidst cold advection could squeeze out a dusting/coating of snow.

The "clipper highway" pattern will feature 24-36 hour intervals of these systems moving into the broader mid-upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes region. 500 mb ensemble mean shows the core of the strongest 500 mb winds oriented toward our general direction. Predictability is low on the specifics of these low amplitude disturbances several days out, but what we can say is regular chances of light to moderate snow accumulations are possible, depending on the tracks each individual clipper takes.

There is a somewhat coherent signal (especially on ECMWF ensemble) for first threat being Sunday, with another on Monday or later Monday into Tuesday (with this also having solid support on ECMWF suite and a bit more robust look on 12z GFS and ECMWF). Given uncertainty, Sunday and Monday PoPs top out in the chance range, with lingering slight chances even into Tuesday. At the end of the period, there is a strong signal at this lead time for an even colder shot of Arctic air driven in ahead of incoming 1045-1050 mb high pressure. Exactly how cold it gets will be determined by the snow cover extent. At the least in this set- up, would expect the lake effect machine to reinvigorate, so nudged up PoPs a bit into Porter County.

Castro

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Forecast concerns include .

Wind shift to northwest early Wednesday morning. Gusty northwest winds through Wednesday evening. Mvfr cigs early Wednesday morning. Possible mvfr cigs Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Winds are slowly turning west/southwest ahead of an approaching cold front and as they do, speeds/gusts are relaxing some. The strongest low level winds are shifting east currently ending low level wind shear. Winds will turn westerly for a short time and gusts may briefly diminish, then winds will turn northwest with gusts into the lower/mid 20kt range into Wednesday evening. Gusts will eventually diminish Wednesday night.

An area of mvfr cigs will move across the area overnight, but has slowed some and has also eroded a bit on the back side. Duration of the mvfr cigs still looks to be in the 3-4 hour time period. Few/sct mvfr level cloud cover will be possible through Wednesday evening, but another period of mvfr cigs is possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Confidence is still rather low for exact cigs, but did add a low vfr deck for now. And some flurries are possible during this time period, but confidence also remains low. cms

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . Winter Storm Watch . INZ002 . 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM Thursday.

LM . Small Craft Advisory . IL nearshore waters until 9 AM Thursday.

Small Craft Advisory . IN nearshore waters until 4 PM Thursday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi126 min WSW 23G28 42°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi66 min WSW 15G23 39°F 1004.4 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 37 mi26 min WNW 15G20 37°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi36 min WSW 25G28 41°F 35°F
OKSI2 40 mi126 min WNW 6G21 43°F
CNII2 44 mi36 min WSW 12G16 40°F 31°F
JAKI2 49 mi126 min W 13G22 42°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last 24 hrSW6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi71 minWSW 9 G 2210.00 miFair39°F32°F76%1004.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi73 minW 1610.00 miFair39°F31°F73%1004.2 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi73 minW 12 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds39°F31°F73%1004.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrW6W44SW4SW5SW6SW7S10S9S7
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1 day agoNW7
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60SW3SW4SW4W3W3W5W54
2 days agoSW4W400W3SW4SW4SW655SW5SW4SW6003000W5W5NW8NW5NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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