Thursday, October21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 6:41PM Thursday October 21, 2021 4:25 PM EDT (20:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:22PMMoonset 7:44AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 352 Am Edt Thu Oct 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm edt this afternoon through this evening...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots. Cloudy in the morning becoming partly Sunny. A chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning...then mostly clear with a chance of light showers in the afternoon and evening. A chance of waterspouts in the afternoon and evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202110212015;;019944 FZUS63 KDTX 210752 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 352 AM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure at 29.80 inches will track eastward along a stalled front across the central Great Lakes while deepening to 29.60 inches today. Shower chances will remain high with thunderstorms possible as the system moves through. Gusty winds can also be expected this afternoon and evening as the system pulls cold air back into the region. LCZ460-212015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 211918 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 318 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

DISCUSSION.

NEAR TERM / REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

As of 315 PM EDT . Compact midlevel wave continues to progress eastward along the vicinity of the I-96 corridor, with rather impressive circulation noted on water vapor imagery. Secondary cold front associated with this feature also continues to quickly progress eastward, with latest regional observations depicting the westerly wind shift now encroaching the US 31 corridor. Ahead of the front, a few hour window of partial cloud clearing allowed temperatures to briefly spike into the mid 60s for a large chunk of the region, helping to build an already enhanced boundary layer mixing profile. Wind gusts will top out around 30 mph, especially where the sun was able to be out the longest, although most areas will see gusts more around 25 mph.

As anticipated and outlined in the updated forecast discussion from this morning, shower activity is beginning to blossom across Lower Michigan and southeast Michigan as increasing dynamic forcing accompanying the midlevel circulation moves through and is met with colder air rushing in from aloft. Latest SPC mesoanalysis depicts around 500 J/kg of SBCAPE along and east of the US 23/I-75 corridor along with midlevel lapse rates of 7 C/km. This instability may be just enough along with inbound 850 hPa temps falling into the low/mid positive single digits to spark a few isolated thunderstorms, especially north of the M-59 corridor. Low freezing levels below 8 kft will also support the potential for small hail in any convection as well. Peak timing still looks on track for 3pm- 8pm, with coverage becoming scattered to numerous.

Shower activity rapidly wanes from west to east as the midlevel circulation departs off into Ontario late this evening, with just a few lingering Lake Huron-enhanced showers possible across the far eastern Thumb as winds begin shifting to more of a west/northwesterly direction. Brief subsidence behind the wave may allow for some partial clearing late, which could aide in dropping low temperatures. Regardless, low temperatures will be on the chilly side falling generally into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Pockets of mid 30s will be possible across the Saginaw Valley into the farmland regions of Shiawassee/Livingston/Washtenaw counties. A lingering pressure gradient will keep northwest winds behind the front from trending calm, and with abundant cloud cover, frost concerns are minimal tonight.

SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

The end of the work week through the first half of the weekend will be characterized by rather tranquil, but cool and dreary conditions as an expansive closed upper low remains locked in the planetary flow in vicinity of Hudson Bay. Friday will feature confluent flow aloft leading to stable and dry conditions for most of southeast Michigan, with the exception being the potential for the far eastern Thumb possibly seeing a few lake effect rain showers downwind off Lake Huron. Lake aggregate moisture will ensure plenty of clouds stick around regardless and 850 hPa temps falling to into the -2 to - 4 C range will make high temps hard pressed to top 50 degrees for most areas. Luckily, northwest winds will remain light to limit the bite to the dreary day. Frost potential will be slightly better Friday night, particularly for the interior Thumb as winds will likely go calm allowing low temps to fall into the low/mid 30s, although cloud cover will be a concern for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Regardless, some patchy frost should be realized although not anywhere widespread to consider headlines.

Saturday will see the core of the Hudson Bay closed low retrograde westward, allowing spokes of energy to move southward from the northern Great Lakes towards the end of the day and promoting at the very least, an enhancement to lake effect shower activity. Questions still remain as to whether any shower activity can be realized over southeast Michigan, but would not be surprised if PoPs need to be bumped up over later forecast cycles given possible daytime heating enhancement with the 532 dam 500 hPa closed low just north of Lake Superior.

Saturday night will have the best potential at seeing widespread frost across southeast Michigan as the closed low begins to break down and shift off to the east as low pressure strengthens in the central Plains. In between across the central Great Lakes, weak surface ridging looks to briefly take hold and may allow for clouds to briefly scour out Saturday night, and along with near calm winds, low temperatures should easily be able to fall into the mid 30s, with low 30s in the colder spots in play. End of the growing season for southeast Michigan is typically around this time of year, and Saturday night may just provide the setup to end the growing season regardless.

LONG TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

The central Plains low pressure system will eject northeastward into the northern Ohio Valley for the second half of the weekend into Monday bringing the next round of widespread rainfall to the region. Rainfall looks to start Sunday morning along the warm advection arc of the system, and continuing potentially through Monday afternoon. As of now, the system looks to fully mature as it tracks just south of the region, with a long duration overrunning rain event potentially bringing rainfall amounts in excess of an inch to at least southern portions of the forecast area. Forecast uncertainty then increases considerably heading into the middle of next week as the synoptic flow becomes highly amplified over the CONUS. Temperatures during the long term will trend back towards seasonal averages.

MARINE.

A surface low now over Lake Huron will continue to move east away from the region this evening. A trailing trough axis will be slower to exit and will persist through much of the night. Showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening but as the better forcing from the low pulls away, the lingering trough will keep just some showers around part of the night. Winds vary throughout the eastern lakes with northwest winds across northern Lake Huron and westerly winds for Lake St Clair and Lake Erie south of the trailing trough. Eventually winds will all become northwesterly with the trough passage later this evening. A tight gradient and cold air advection will keep gusty winds around through Friday morning and though winds will fall to below Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight, waves heights will remain elevated across southern Lake Huron through Friday morning. North wind then tapers off on Friday as cooler air settles into the region and the gradient weakens.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Oct 21 2021

AVIATION .

Compact trailing midlevel circulation will track eastward across the airspace through the evening hours providing the focus for renewed scattered to numerous shower development through roughly 00z, with coverage anticipated to be greatest at KPTK, KFNT, and KMBS. Isolated thunder will also be possible as a secondary cold front swings through and ushers in colder air aloft, but confidence not high enough to place in the TAFs at this time. After breaks in cloud cover leading to periodic clearing and lifting of ceilings to VFR, ceilings will dip back into solid MVFR for the remaining daylight hours and through much of tonight as boundary layer cools and remains saturated. Best chance at seeing periodic lifting to low-end VFR will be at the Detroit metro sites later tonight when weak subsidence post midlevel wave exit may offer a few hours of scattering of the stratus field. Broad, cool, and moist cyclonic flow keeps plenty of stratus/stratocu around for Friday. Southwest winds ahead of the secondary cold front passage today will peak around 25-28 knots before flipping northwest after 03z and rapidly waning below 10 knots the remainder of the period.

For DTW . Best opportunity for additional showers will be in the 19z- 00z window, with prevailing MVFR ceilings and strong southwest gusts possibly exceeding 25 knots at times being the primary aviation concerns into tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceilings at or below 5000 feet through tonight. Medium after 12z Friday.

* Low for crosswind exceedance out of 250-270 direction.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LHZ421-441>443.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.



DISCUSSION . IRL MARINE . DRK AVIATION . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi85 min W 13G22 65°F 1006.8 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi85 min SW 14G16 62°F 61°F1 ft1005.6 hPa (-2.2)
AGCM4 21 mi55 min 64°F 62°F1005.7 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi55 min 64°F 1004.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi85 min W 23G25 64°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi32 minW 11 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F47°F52%1006.2 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi29 minWSW 13 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F51°F62%1006.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi30 minWSW 13 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F46°F51%1007.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7S6S5S5S5SW6S4SW8SW6SW7S6S5S5S6S6S4S6SW7SW5SW7SW11SW11W13
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1 day agoW9
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2 days agoW6N3000000000W300000W5W5SW4W5SW7W8W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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