Wednesday, January19, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly Hills, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 5:31PM Wednesday January 19, 2022 1:51 AM EST (06:51 UTC) Moonrise 7:12PMMoonset 9:22AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 937 Pm Est Tue Jan 18 2022
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly clear.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Mostly clear.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves omitted due to ice coverage.
LCZ460 Expires:202201190915;;601564 FZUS63 KDTX 190237 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 937 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A clipper low pressure system, 29.40 inches, will draw east across the northern Great Lakes tonight and into Wednesday morning. This will bring a period of gales and elevated wave action for Lake Huron. The passage of the low will draw a cold front across the region tomorrow and will veer winds from the east-southeast to west-northwest into tomorrow night. High pressure, 30.60 inches, will fill in behind the cold front by Thursday. LCZ460-190915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly Hills, MI
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location: 42.52, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 190456 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1156 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

AVIATION.

Stronger south-southwest flow will continue to mark conditions overnight as a low pressure system tracks through the northern great lakes. Nocturnal low level stability will place some limitation on gust potential, but with intermittent gusts of 20 to 30 knots expected. Inbound cold front sweeps across Southeast Michigan during the mid morning hours. This leads to an expanding coverage of MVFR stratus throughout the morning, with limited potential for a light rain or snow shower. Winds shift to west-northwest and remain gusty with the frontal passage. Wind speed and gust magnitude will gradually ease through the latter half of Wednesday. Cloud bases tending to lift with time Wednesday afternoon as drier and colder air works into moist layer.

For DTW . Clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft hold through the early morning hours. Low stratus then arrives just ahead of an approaching cold front mid morning /09z-10z/. Wind shift to west- northwest with the frontal passage, with gust magnitude near crosswind thresholds late Wednesday morning before easing in the afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft after 09z tonight through Wednesday morning. Low Wednesday afternoon and evening.

* Low confidence in westerly winds exceeding the crosswind threshold Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 320 PM EST Tue Jan 18 2022

DISCUSSION .

An axis of mid level isentropic ascent ongoing across the wrn Great Lakes will traverse Se Mi in the 21 to 03Z time frame this evening. Moisture transport into the region of lift is quite good, with specific humidities up to 3 g/kg. For most of the area, the brevity of forcing combined with the ascent being located outside the ideal thermal regime for dendrites will limit snow to just flurries. Locations along/northeast of a Midland to Saginaw to Port Huron line will however experience a little better ascent and deeper moisture. This remains supportive of the current forecast with higher snow chances and minor (less than an inch) accumulations in this region.

This region of ascent is tied to the upper wave and associated sfc low that will advance across Lake Superior this evening. Increasing SW flow from this system will occur across srn Lower Mi tonight as the warm sector overspreads the area. This will drive mild air across Se MI, allowing nighttime temps to rise into the mid 30s to possibly lower 40s. The strength of the southwest flow (2-4k ft level winds forecast to increase to 50 to 60 knots) will result in an uptick in wind speeds toward evening and persisting throughout the night. There is a relatively high spread among model ensemble members with respect to peak wind gusts. The differences arise to do discrepancies in the depth of the potential mixed layer. There is not enough support for advisory criteria wind gusts, especially taking into account the limitations in mixing potential with warm air advection this time of year. However, in leaning toward a little warmer boundary layer conditions, gusts around 35 MPH, possibly 40 MPH seems achievable. A narrow low level moist axis along/ahead of the associated sfc cold front will provide a chance for light precip overnight into early Wed morning. The expected degree of boundary layer warmth will keep precip type light rain/drizzle and/or melting snow.

Mid level trough amplification will then take hold across the Great Lakes Wed into Thursday, driving arctic air back into the region. Following the early morning fropa, temps will undergo a steady drop through the day Wed as this arctic air infiltrates the region, with readings in the single digits expected Wed night. Mid level subsidence/drying will limit the amount of lake effect activity that is able to stream into Se Mi within the northwest flow. Arctic high pressure will then expand from the northern plains across the Great Lakes Thurs into Friday, maintaining cold and dry conditions through the end of the week.

MARINE .

A low pressure clipper system will draw east across the upper Great Lakes late tonight into Wednesday morning and will bring the next round of active weather and elevated waves action and gales. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of the low pressure system will draw in across the Great Lakes from south to north starting this evening. Sustained wind speeds around 30 knots are expected shortly after 00Z (7PM) along southern and central Lake Huron, with gusts peaking to near 40 knot gales. Some of the stronger gusts towards 40 knots are expected to decrease in intensity by and after 06Z (2AM), but lower- end gales remain likely through the late morning hours. Northern Lake Huron will also be susceptible to low-end gales during this time frame. As low pressure continues to travel east it will start to veer wind direction from southwest to west-northwest as arctic air is ushered in behind a cold front. The better gale threat will then shift more toward the northern part of the Great Lakes, across northern Lake Huron given the better westerly fetch. This will allow gales to continue well into Wednesday afternoon and early evening, where stronger gales around 40 knots will then be likely. As a result, a Gale Warning remains in effect for all of Lake Huron through the morning. Northern Lake Huron will then hold onto the Gale warning through the evening given the above.

Last, widespread light snow will persist across Lake Huron (focused more over northern Lake Huron) with the passage of the low pressure system, through early Wednesday morning. Variable visibilities are expected with snow activity.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ363-441>443-462>464.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ361-362.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ421.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . SC MARINE . AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 20 mi52 min SSW 13G21 34°F 1007.1 hPa (-2.4)
AGCM4 39 mi58 min 33°F 33°F1007 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi52 min S 22G24 33°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 54 mi58 min 33°F 1004.8 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Last 24 hrNW11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI4 mi57 minSSW 14 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy36°F27°F69%1006.4 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi59 minSSW 16 G 2410.00 miOvercast35°F26°F70%1007.3 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI14 mi59 minSSW 11 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy35°F26°F70%1005.4 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI20 mi59 minSSW 14 G 238.00 miOvercast36°F26°F67%1007.7 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI23 mi56 minS 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy34°F30°F84%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLL

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrW7W6W4SW5SW5SW5SW4SW5SW7SW7S7SW7S5S10
G15
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1 day agoN7NW8
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2 days agoNE3NE4NE4NE50NE30NE4N3E6NE5E5NE6E4E3E50E6NE3NE50N3N5N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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