Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 5:19 AM   Moonset 8:54 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 937 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Rest of today - West winds 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.Tonight - Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming north late in the evening - .then becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear this evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.Thursday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Light showers likely in the morning - .then a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.Thursday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.Friday - North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Saturday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 081954 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 354 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler on Thursday with rain expected south of M-59 and a chance north.

- Next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes Saturday.

DISCUSSION

A flattening shortwave ridge sliding over southern MI today in the wake of Wednesday's low has lead to a mostly sunny and mild day with temps well into the 70s. A lingering trough axis draped across northern lower this afternoon has lead to an enhance cloud field which will impact locations as far south as the northern Thumb, otherwise diurnal cu shouldn't last too long across the rest of the area. As temps attempt to drop off tonight, elevated clouds start filling in north of the stalled cold front just south of the state which will limit the mins to around 45-50 degrees.

Tonight marks the beginning of a bigger shift in the weather pattern as a very positively tilted trough drops out of eastern Canada while digging westward and phasing with the orphaned upper low over the northern Plains. Remnant mid level wave will then advance along the trough with a weak surface low tracking east along the front on Thursday. Moisture advection up the elevated portions of the front lingering over southern MI will result in a period of rainfall for most of the CWA Two main questions will be when does the rain move in and how far north will it extend? Most guidance suggests the lead edge of the deeper moisture will push north across the Ohio border after 06Z tonight with northerly flow feeding dry air in the lower levels beneath the stout low level inversion which will take some time to saturate. A narrow corridor of higher theta e air will advance north to around I94 while fgen flares up after about 15Z which should lead to more moderate showers. Fgen higher on the front makes it up to Saginaw but with a good deal of dry air still in the soundings up to 10kft. Even so, hires suite offers a good duration of light rain through the day so will hedge forecast a little to keep a slight chance or chance pop going up there for now. Rain will taper off after dark with the deformation pulling east away from the area. QPF up to around a third of an inch is expected.

Friday should be dry with another short wave ridge sliding SE through lower MI. Northerly flow will keep cool air filtering into the area keeping highs muted in the lower 60s. The next chance of rain comes Saturday as a narrow trough slides SE through the Great Lakes out of Canada. There will be a brief flip around to SW flow ahead of this system which may be able to bring a bit of moisture into the area, but PWATs are only expected to get just above a half inch. Light flow keeps shear minimal, less than 20 knots but there is some potential for a couple hundred joules of MUCAPE so can't rule out some thunderstorms. The progressive pattern brings ridging back for Sunday.

MARINE

Weakening surface low has drifted well to our east, with its attendant cold front washing out overhead. For the Great Lakes, this has corresponded to winds veering to the north while stable open waters have kept gusts below 25 knots. Closer to the shoreline where land influence comes into play, winds may gust to around 30 knots before subsiding later this evening in which Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Elevated portions of the frontal boundary remain orphaned overhead to reactivate shower activity by Thursday morning across western Lake Erie/Lake St. Clair, with a slightly cooler airmass overhead once again introducing wind gusts to 25 knots Thursday afternoon. Weekend weather remains unsettled precipitation- wise owing to broad troughing aloft, but the overall wind field remains light.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

AVIATION...

Breezy westerly flow with gusts of 25 to 30 knots is in place this afternoon across Southeast Michigan this afternoon as flattened ridge is suppressed to the Southeast United States. Surface high pressure is shown to build southward in response to differential heating and mesohigh forcing which will in turn cause a cold front to backdoor off Lake Huron and Lake St Clair this evening. Expect an abrupt wind shift with winds turning to the northeast around 01-02Z.
A deep upper level trough axis will then settle into portions of northern Lower Michigan Thursday. Increased midlevel deformation and frontogenesis is expected to result in a widespread coverage of rain showers after 15Z for all of Southeast Michigan.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded this afternoon.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Detroit, MI,