Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 1:10 AM   Moonset 9:36 AM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 905 Pm Cdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Rest of tonight - West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy just before midnight then clearing. Waves around 1 foot. Tuesday - West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest early in the afternoon, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Tuesday night - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south after midnight, then rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Wednesday - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering west in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 300241 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 941 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers exiting the area, dry conditions through Tuesday.

- Above normal temps likely through Thursday, cooling off towards normal this weekend.

- Another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Tuesday night. A stronger system with additional showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly continuing into Friday.

- A few additional chances for precipitation into the weekend and early next week.

UPDATE
Issued 939 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Low pressure across western Wisconsin continues to move northward this evening. Cloud cover is beginning to lift north with the low, with areas across far southeastern Wisconsin already mostly clear as the dry slot moves through the area.
Expecting cloud cover to linger across central Wisconsin through the early morning, but skies are expected to be mostly clear on Tuesday with diurnal cumulus possible in the afternoon.

Falkinham

SHORT TERM
Issued 356 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night:

Occluded front is almost through southern Wisconsin, with a few lingering showers across southeastern Wisconsin almost reaching the freezing layer and therefore potentially being capable of an isolated bolt or two of lightning. Showers along this front will be offshore into Lake Michigan within the next hour. A few additional pockets of sprinkles are possible tonight around the back side of low pressure as it propagates northeastward. Cloud cover tonight may linger longer than initially forecast due to a combination of moisture at mid levels and a slower progression of low pressure northward. Westerly winds will bring in cooler temperatures overnight, with lows in the lower 40s.

Clearing skies are expected going into Tuesday morning, with a few diurnal cumulus clouds developing Tuesday afternoon. Expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the lowest temperatures close to the remnants of low pressure in central to southeastern Wisconsin. Light westerly winds continue through Tuesday, although a lake breeze may develop across the lakeshore counties during the late afternoon hours and bring in lower temperatures.

Tuesday night, winds shift southerly to southeasterly as low pressure approaches from the northern Great Plains. Modeling is in agreement that this low will also propagate into northern Wisconsin, leading to scattered showers across the area and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm in southwestern Wisconsin.
Showers move out into Wednesday morning. Expect lows in the mid 50s.

MH

LONG TERM
Issued 356 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

A slower progression of the next low pressure system is indicated on the major models, leading to expected dry conditions throughout the day Wednesday. Temperatures rising into the lower 70s are therefore expected. A warm frontal feature pushing northward into southern Wisconsin Wednesday night from a developing low in the central Plains will yield the next chances for precipitation. High pressure building into the Southeast during the same time frame will allow for warm temperatures to continue to push into southern Wisconsin and lends credence to the solutions indicating a farther north placement of this warm front. This primes the environment for potential severe weather on Thursday.

Severe threat on Thursday remains conditional. 12Z runs indicate southern Wisconsin remaining in the warm sector throughout Thursday, with a cold frontal passage overnight. Convection that fires in the warm sector or a faster cold front would enhance the threat, while the overall environment remains marginal. PWAT values above 1.25 inch (plenty of moisture) compete with bulk shear values of 30 to 40 kt (marginal) and CAPE values around 500 J/kg (relatively weak). Will continue to monitor as the event approaches.

Precipitation may linger into Friday, with the frontal boundary stalling over the region as low pressure occludes and pushes northward. Temperatures fall back to normal ranges for the season, with westerly winds continuing through Friday night.
Expect cold front to push eastward out of the region Friday night, with potentially dry conditions going into Saturday.
However, an additional shortwave looks to impact the region starting Sunday and potentially continuing through Monday, so continued chances for precipitation and perhaps a thunderstorm or two linger into early next week.

MH

AVIATION
Issued 939 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period as the low pressure across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan continues to move northwards. Low level clouds around 3-4 kft associated with the low level wrap around moisture from the low pressure are present across southern Wisconsin, but are expected to lift northward overnight which will lead to clearing skies across southern Wisconsin. Mostly clear skies on Tuesday are expected, with diurnal cumulus development possible in the afternoon. Winds will be out of the west to southwest during the day on Tuesday as a surface ridge moves across southern Wisconsin.

Falkinham

MARINE
Issued 356 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Areas of dense fog are expected across the northern half of the Lake into late this evening as southeasterly winds continue. As winds shift southwesterly, expect fog to dissipate. In addition, frontal passage through nearshore regions is producing brief gusts up to 23 kt, diminishing quickly into this evening.

Low pressure continues to lift toward Lake Superior from northwestern Wisconsin tonight, with winds shifting to southwesterly and weakening as low pressure begins to fill.
Expect southwesterly winds to continue through Tuesday, shifting to southeasterly and increasing Tuesday night as low pressure approaches the area from the northern Great Plains. A few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night across the southern half of the lake. Winds shift back to southwesterly and diminish into Wednesday afternoon as low pressure lifts northward.

MH

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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