Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:09 AM   Moonset 1:22 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 020754 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 354 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Outside of isolated showers north and east of Albany tonight due to a passing disturbance, primarily dry conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the work week. In fact, precipitation chances don't increase again until Saturday afternoon into Sunday ahead of a frontal system. Dry weather will then return for the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
.As of 3:50 AM EDT...Potent upper disturbance is located in southwestern Ontario, with the associated surface low downstream just northeast of Lake Ontario. We have seen a few showers and thunderstorms out ahead of this system so far tonight, and will continue to mention slight chance to chance PoPs for the southern ADKs, upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT through early this morning with the surface low expected to track north of our CWA Will also continue to mention slight chances for some thunder based on current radar trends and BUFKIT forecast soundings that show some pockets of weak elevated instability north of I-90thanks to a remnant EML plume.

Further south, we are seeing low stratus expanding north and westwards from the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England with low-level southeast flow leading to moisture becoming trapped beneath a thermal inversion. These low clouds should continue expanding north and westwards through around daybreak before mixing out later this morning with daytime heating. Temperatures range from mid 40s to around 60 at this time. Areas that remain cloud free will likely see temperatures drop a few more degrees, while cloudy areas can expect near steady temperatures through sunrise. Some patchy fog is possible for the more sheltered areas that remain clear through the next few hours.

This morning, the cold front associated with the surface low tracking to our north will track through the region from northwest to southeast. This front is currently located back across western NY, but should make it to our western CWA border by 12z and to the Capital District by around 15z, exiting into western New England late this morning. Behind this front, we should see a deeply mixed boundary layer today. Combined with partly to mostly sunny skies, this should help temperatures rise well into the 70s for many valley locations and into the upper 60s even for the high terrain. With most areas still pre-green- up, we went a few to several degrees above NBM/MOS guidance for daytime highs today. Most of today should be dry with the surface low tracking off to our north/east, especially after the cold front departs this morning.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Tonight, an upper ridge amplifies over the eastern Great Lakes region. High pressure in eastern Canada downstream of the upper ridge will build into our region from the north. The large-scale subsidence will keep our region dry tonight. There may be a few clouds around and winds won't go completely calm tonight. While conditions are not ideal for radiative cooling, with a dry airmass in place we should still see overnight lows mainly in the 40s, although a couple of the normally colder areas in the ADKs or southern VT may see temperatures briefly dip into the upper 30s.

Friday, the upper ridge axis shifts over western NY with the surface high sliding off to our northeast. We will be caught between an unusually warm airmass under the ridge to our west and a cooler maritime airmass to our east due to low-level east/southeast flow around the periphery of the surface high.
Temperatures will range from the low to mid 70s in the Mohawk and upper Hudson Valleys, while the Mid Hudson Valley and western New England will likely see highs in the 60s with some 50s in the higher elevations. The upper ridge axis moves overhead Friday night, with the surface high remaining to our east. Lows will be a few degrees warmer as there will be a few more clouds around compared to the previous night. We should remain dry through Friday night with the upper ridge nearby.

Saturday and Saturday night...Saturday starts off dry, but an occluded front will approach from the west later in the day, bringing with it a chance for some showers. The best chance for showers Saturday afternoon is for areas west of I-87. Western New England will see highs similar to Friday. Further west, it will likely be a few degrees cooler than Friday with more clouds around. Chances for showers increase Saturday night across the region, although there is still some uncertainty regarding exactly how quickly the front progresses eastwards. QPF generally looks to remain on the light side through 12z Sunday.
Lows will be mainly in the 40s to 50s with cloudy skies.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Sunday looks to be a rather cool and damp day, as a surface front gradually moves eastward across the region. At this time it appears showers will be prevalent through the day, as the front encounters ridging along the New England coast which will slow its eastward progress. With plenty of clouds/showers around and a cool SE flow, highs will mainly be in the 50s. Showers will taper off from west to east Sun night, as the surface front and a short wave trough aloft move through.

Surface high pressure is then expected to build in from the north/west on Mon, providing dry conditions and likely abundant sunshine. The air mass will be moderating fairly quickly, so with NW flow and good mixing highs should reach the lower/mid 70s in most lower elevations. Tranquil/seasonable conditions in store for Mon night with high pressure overhead. The high will gradually drift east towards the New England coast on Tue, with continued dry weather and warming aloft. NAEFS indicating 850 mb temperature anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV, resulting in highs around 10 degrees above normal.

The next chance of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms, arrives Tue night into Wed, as a warm front approaches from the south/west and eventually moves into our area. Temperatures will be highly dependent on the timing of clouds/showers and also the northward progress/extent of the warm front. At this time temperatures are expected to remain above normal, but with lower confidence.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06z Friday...Low pressure will track across northern New England into this morning. An associated cold front will push southeastward across the TAF sites by late this morning.
Until then, tricky forecast with regards to low stratus clouds at KALB/KPOU/KPSF and possible fog at KGFL. Satellite imagery shows stratus clouds very close to KPOU/KPSF at this time and slowly expanding north/west. So will mention TEMPO for IFR cigs until around 08z at these sites, then prevailing IFR cigs through 12z. Lower confidence in low clouds making it to KALB, so will just include a TEMPO for a few hours from 08z-10z. Mid level clouds clearing at KGFL for the next few hours. If winds go calm for any duration, fog development is likely with very low dewpoint depression. So will mention a TEMPO for IFR conditions associated with fog there from around 06z-09z prior to mid level clouds increasing again after that time.

Low level clouds will scour out once the cold front pushes through between around 15z-16z, with VFR conditions returning.
VFR should then prevail through the rest of the TAF period ending 06z Friday.

Winds will be mainly southerly around 4-12 kt with some gusts near 20 kt at KALB through the early morning hours. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the cold front by late this morning, with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt and gusts around 20-25 kt developing.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER
Today, RH values look to drop to 30 to 40% across portions of the Mid Hudson Valley and western CT. Northwesterly wind gusts will be around 15 kt in the Mid Hudson Valley and 15-20 kt in western CT. Further north from the Mohawk Valley through the Capital District and into the Berkshires, northwest winds could gust up to around 25 kt, although RH values in these areas should remain above 40%. With the lack of overlap between the strongest winds and lowest RH values combined with the fact that most of these areas saw a quarter to a half inch of rain over the past 48 hours, we did not consider special weather statements for elevated fire weather concerns today.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Castleton-on-Hudson
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