Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 5:35 PM   Moonset 3:48 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 201008 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 608 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warming trend begins today with mainly dry weather across the region. Tomorrow and Wednesday will feature temperatures well into the 80s to around 90 for may valley areas with a chance for a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms especially for western areas. A cold front brings increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday, with cooler and drier weather expected Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Update
As of 6:10 AM EDT...Much of the low stratus that was across the Hudson Valley earlier tonight has dissipated, which allowed temperatures to drop several degrees in the last few hours with light to calm winds across most of the region. So, it is a seasonably cool start to the day with most areas in the upper 40s to low 50s. There is some low stratus in Windham and eastern Litchfield Counties, and some patchy fog in some of the river valleys that remained calm and clear last night. Fog and low stratus should burn off within the next few hours, with skies becoming partly to mostly clear for much of today. Other than nudging temps down a couple degrees through the next hour or two, just very minor adjustments with this update. Previous forecast remains on track with more details in the previous discussion below...

Previous
A ridge of high pressure at the surface currently extends over our region from the northeast, with ridging aloft also over the region. Today, the upper ridge continues to amplify as it undergoes anticyclonic wave breaking. The surface high remains off to our east and a warm front tracks through our region from the west. There isn't enough moisture for much if any precip with this warm front, although a spot shower can't totally be ruled out over the high terrain of the Catskills or ADKs this afternoon. However, most of the region should see partly cloudy skies. Warming airmass and deep mixing to around 800 mb per BUFKIT forecast soundings suggests highs today reach into the low to mid 80s for the valley areas, especially north and west of Albany where there will be less influence from the southeasterly onshore flow.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Tonight, the surface high will be located just to our south, with continued upper ridging overhead. Light southerly flow may result in some additional low stratus again tonight, especially across the Mid Hudson Valley and/or southwestern New England.
Otherwise, partly to mostly clear skies are expected for most of the night with some patchy fog in some of the typical areas.
With a slightly warmer airmass in place, overnight lows will only drop into the 50s for most areas.

By 12z Tuesday, the ridge aloft will have folded over on itself, resulting in more zonal flow aloft for our area. A convectively induced shortwave and associated remnant MCS activity will be tracking to our north near the international border. A few showers or thunderstorms could form across the ADKs along the outflow from this area of storms. Additionally, a separate weak upper impulse approaching from the west during the afternoon and evening could provide enough forcing for a few showers or thunderstorms across the western Mohawk Valley.
Tuesday will be the warmest day so far this year for most areas, with temperatures climbing well into the 80s to around 90 for many valley areas. With upper 50s to low 60s dew points, we could see 1500 to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE west and north of Albany.
However, the best vertical wind shear should remain north of our area, so at this time the probability for severe weather looks low Tuesday afternoon and evening. If we see more in the way of clouds from the convection to our north, then temperatures could end up a couple degrees cooler than currently forecast for northern areas.

Tuesday night, any showers or thunderstorms should diminish within a few hours of sunset as instability wanes with the loss of daytime heating. There will be a few more clouds around with the upper impulse nearby, and the warmer airmass will result in lows mainly in the 50s to 60s. While our area will generally see tranquil weather Tuesday night, a surface low will be intensifying over the upper midwest as an associated upper trough becomes negatively tilted and closes off aloft. These features will track from the western Great Lakes into southern Canada Wednesday and Wednesday night. The system's cold front looks to approach our area late Wednesday night, although there are still some timing differences in the guidance.

So, with the cold front off to our west Wednesday, it will be another hot day, with most areas a degree or two warmer than on Tuesday. Feels-like temperatures/heat indices look to max out around 90F, so it looks like we should fall short of heat advisory criteria (95F). With the warm temps and upper 50s to low 60s dew points, instability once again builds potentially in excess of 1500 J/kg. A pre-frontal trough may provide enough forcing for some showers or thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon, especially west of I-87. However, shear still looks relatively weak with the best upper dynamics remaining off to our west, so probability for any strong to severe storms looks low once again. Wednesday night will be warm as well, with overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 60s. If the actual cold front does approach our western areas towards the end of the period, then some additional showers or thunderstorms would be possible, but the exact timing of the front is still uncertain.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A cold front associated with a low pressure system over Ontario and Quebec looks to cross the region on Thursday. Guidance is beginning to come into better agreement on the timing of the front with the front located across western New York early in the day and cross eastern areas by the afternoon hours. While the main upper-level energy will be displaced well to the north and west, some shortwave energy crossing our region will allow for some showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. With the latest timing of the front, there may be enough of an overlap of instability (500- 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and shear (30-40 kt 0-6km) for some stronger storms. Will monitor trends in the coming days.

Cooler and less humid air returns behind the front for Friday into Saturday as high pressure returns. An upper-level shortwave will pass by to our north on Friday with any shower activity also staying to the north. Highs Friday and Saturday return to the 60s and 70s.

There are some timing differences with the next upper-level disturbance but chances for showers return either for the second half of the weekend or early next week.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12z/Tue...Any lingering fog will lift early this morning, then VFR conditions will be in place into this evening at all sites with high pressure nearby. Potential is higher for more widespread fog development tonight. As a result, showed MVFR vsbys at all sites between 06-12z/Tue. Will fine tune the fog potential in later TAF issuances.

Wind will be variable or out of the south to southeast at 5 kt or less through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperature for May 20:

Albany: 91 in 1962 Glens Falls: 90 in 1975 Poughkeepsie: 91 in 1975

Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941 Glens Falls: 93 in 1921 Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911 Glens Falls: 98 in 1911 Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Castleton-on-Hudson
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