Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sunset Bay, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 5:10PM Sunday January 16, 2022 4:39 AM EST (09:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:49PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Dunkirk To Buffalo Along Lake Erie- 616 Pm Est Sat Jan 15 2022
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest to 30 knots. Snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers in the evening, then snow likely overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Snow showers likely during the day, then snow likely Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Rain and snow likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ041 Expires:202201160430;;423377 FZUS51 KBUF 152316 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 616 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ041-160430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sunset Bay, NY
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location: 42.56, -79.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 160858 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 358 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. Cold temperatures will persist this morning as high pressure drifts east across New England. A major winter storm will then move into the area, with heavy snow spreading into our region from south to north this evening and continuing through Monday. The snow may briefly mix with some sleet tonight. The heavy snow will taper off from west to east later Monday afternoon and evening, but winds will increase during this time with a period of significant blowing and drifting snow. Lake effect snow will develop southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Monday night through Tuesday with some localized additional accumulations.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. . MAJOR WINTER STORM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY .

High pressure centered over New England this morning will drift east into the Gulf of Maine today. Radiational cooling overnight has allowed temperatures to drop to the single digits above and below zero in Western NY, and teens below zero east of Lake Ontario. There isn't much wind left, but just enough of a light breeze at times to produce a wind chill. A Wind Chill Advisory remains in place for the entire CWA this morning.

Today will be tranquil, with abundant sunshine much of the day before high clouds increase from south to north later this afternoon. Temperatures will recover into the mid to upper 20s after the cold start.

Our attention then turns to a major winter storm that will impact the region tonight through Monday.

Synoptic Setup .

A strong closed low over the southeast US early this morning will round the base of the longwave trough and move NNE up the eastern seaboard, while interacting with another strong shortwave digging through the upper Midwest. The initial low over the southeast will give way to secondary coastal cyclogenesis along the South Carolina coast today, with this low then taking an inland track up the east coast, reaching east central PA by early Monday morning before moving through western New England Monday afternoon.

Forcing for ascent will be supported by strong DPVA ahead of the sharp mid level closed low, impressive upper level coupled jet structure, and strongly diffluent flow aloft. A powerful 80+ knot southeasterly low level jet will support a strong warm conveyor on the front side of the system, transporting a plume of deep Atlantic moisture back into the eastern Great Lakes and supporting strong isentropic upglide. All of this will come together to produce a period of deep/strong ascent through the depth of the troposphere. Following the first phase of the system, a strong deformation zone and TROWAL airstream will continue to support heavy snow in the comma head of the system through early afternoon Monday.

Precipitation Type/Snow:Water Ratios .

The strong surge of warm advection in the warm conveyor driven by the 80+ knot southeasterly low level jet may bring enough warm air aloft into play to allow for a brief mix with sleet tonight for a few hours. The mix with sleet may last a little longer across Central NY and the southern Tug Hill region. Across Western NY, the mix with sleet will be brief enough to not significantly impact snow amounts, but it will hold down amounts in Central NY to some extent.

Snow:Water ratios tonight in the warm conveyor will likely be fairly low, around 10:1 or even a little lower. A deep isothermal layer beneath the dentritic growth zone in the mid levels suggests heavily rimed conglomerates resulting in an "icy" snow initially. Snow:Water ratios will steadily increase from west to east on Monday as the thermodynamic structure improves within the deformation zone, and as the column cools. By late Monday afternoon ratios will likely be 18:1 or better, especially in areas of developing lake enhancement.

Total Snowfall Forecast .

The highest snowfall continues to focus on Western NY. The heaviest snowfall rates will be overnight tonight through early Monday morning as a wide/intense mesoscale band structure moves north across the area, with 2-3"/hr snowfall rates likely. Forecast soundings suggest slantwise and even upright convection is possible, with some potential for thundersnow. From mid morning through the afternoon Monday max snowfall rates will likely back off to 1-2" per hour.

Storm totals of 12-18" still look likely across much of Western NY. The pivot point of the strong deformation axis will likely exceed 20", but there remains some uncertainty on where this will be. Based on the 850MB low track in the latest model runs, this may end up being over the west end of Lake Ontario. The most likely areas to exceed 18" in Western NY will be the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills with lake enhancement and upslope late in the event, and also in Niagara County with some Lake Ontario enhancement and close proximity to the potential pivot point of the deformation axis.

Farther east, expect 8-12" from roughly the Genesee Valley eastward across the eastern Lake Ontario region. A potential longer mix with sleet, and also dry slotting for a portion of Monday may keep totals under 8" for portions of Cayuga, Oswego and southern Lewis counties.

Blowing/Drifting Snow .

Southeast winds this evening will become northeast overnight through Monday morning. Winds will be relatively light through the first phase of this storm, with the exception of the south shore of Lake Ontario where gusts may exceed 30 mph.

Winds will then become northwest Monday afternoon and rapidly increase, with gusts of 30-40 mph areawide and locally 45+ mph close to the Lake Ontario shore. These gusts will peak Monday evening, and result in significant blowing and drifting snow as the widespread general snow is tapering off. Winds will start to diminish later Monday night.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. On Tuesday storm system will be deepening and lifting across Labrador Canada. Cold NW flow remains across the lower Great Lakes and soundings show through inversions will be falling to 4-5kft, all the cloud depth will be within DGZ. NW flow remains steady with little shear. There could also be upstream connections to Lake Huron and Georgian bay. Result will be persistent fluffy lake snows adding up to at least a few inches into western Southern Tier, greatest across the Chautauqua Ridge, and also to the southeast of Lake Ontario. Winds diminish compared to Monday night, so blowing snow will be less and less of an issue through the day. Cool day all areas with highs in the low to mid 20s, except only in the teens east of Lake Ontario.

Lake effect Tuesday Night will end as warm air advection increases aloft and surface high pressure crosses. Some snow may develop out of this warm air advection though there are signals low-level dry air may cut down on initial chances for snow over western NY. Late Tuesday night through eventually some light snow may develop. Given the return flow pattern that will develop ahead of upstream clipper shortwave and low pressure system used non-diurnal temp curve with temps bottoming out in lower teens WNY and below zero east of Lake Ontario early, before rising after midnight. Temps may even crack the freezing mark by daybreak Tuesday over far western NY. This will come via increasing gusty south to southwest winds.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Low pressure system tracking across the Great Lakes directs majority of the precip on Wednesday along and north of the south shore of Lake Ontario. Kept pops highest east of Lake Ontario. Forecast soundings show blyr warms enough with wbzero heights 1500-2000ft AGL that if there is precip occurring over much of the area it would take at least a form of rain/snow mix if not just rain. Eventually colder air working in on Wednesday night will switch any rain back to snow as H85 temps drop rather quickly toward -18c. Other story on Wednesday will be the gusty southwest winds, especially across the lakes and the Niagara Frontier. As long as current track along and north of here holds, strong 6hr pressure falls will enhance southwest winds with gusts over 40 mph not out of question. Temps will rise well into the 30s if not near 40 as we are in the warm sector of this system. As has been mentioned in previous discussions, hesitant to go too much above guidance due to potential deep snowpack that will exist across portions of our region.

This westerly flow and another plume of cold air dropping to as low as -20c at H85 will result in more lake effect snow generally aimed to the southeast of the lakes later Wed night through Fri. At this point, inversions look slightly higher than what occurs after the strong storm early this week. Even so, a colder and slightly drier airmass (not as much of the DGZ in play) will hold overall snow totals in check. Another area of high pressure building in Saturday will finally diminish the lake snows. However, deep cold trough aloft occupying much of the eastern CONUS by this time could support another system lifting up the east coast as ECMWF and Canadian_NH show with the 00z runs.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Lake effect clouds remain across much of Lake Ontario but these will continue to drift over southern Ontario as winds are from the east- southeast. Otherwise VFR will prevail with clear skies through this morning, then increasing high clouds later this afternoon. The first of the snow may reach the NY/PA state line by around 00Z Monday.

Tonight, snow will rapidly overspread the area from south to north and quickly become heavy after onset. The snow will produce widespread IFR, and an embedded axis of heavy snow moving from south to north will produce VSBY of 1/4SM or less with 2-3" per hour snowfall rates overnight through early Monday morning.

Outlook .

Monday . IFR or lower conditions for most of the region with widespread snow. Potential MAJOR impacts to airport operations due to heavy snow and poor visibility, especially western NY. Monday night . Slow improvement with local IFR or lower conditions continuing in snow and blowing snow. Snow transitions to lake effect snow southeast of the lakes after midnight, impacting especially KROC and KJHW Tuesday. Mainly VFR . but MVFR in lake snows at KROC and KJHW Wednesday. Mainly MVFR. Rain and snow likely. Thursday . IFR to MVFR. Lake effect snows southeast of the lakes.

MARINE. High pressure will drift off the New England coast today. A strong east coast low will then move northward inland of the Atlantic coast tonight and Monday. Southeast winds this evening will become northeast later tonight and early Monday and increase to around 30 knots, before becoming northwest Monday afternoon. This will produce high end Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario later tonight through Monday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions will last through Tuesday before winds diminish Tuesday evening.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ005>008. Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ006>008. Wind Chill Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ001>005- 010>014-019>021-085. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ001>004-010-011. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ013-014-021. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-020-085. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . JLA LONG TERM . JLA AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 10 mi51 min 6°F 1023.5 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 13 mi39 min SSE 4.1G5.1 10°F 1026 hPa (-1.8)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 25 mi51 min ENE 6G8 5°F 33°F1023.7 hPa-3°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 36 mi51 min 4°F 1023.9 hPa
NREP1 41 mi129 min SE 1.9G2.9 10°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY9 mi1.8 hrsN 0 miFair5°F-0°F79%1027 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrE12E8E10E9NE10NE9E8E10NE8E4NE5N11NE10NE7NE5E6E4E6E6E600S30
1 day agoN7N7N14N9NE10
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2 days ago----S8SW5S6S6S6S6S4W4W4NW60N30NE4--E30N3N7N3N7N8

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