Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Clemens, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 6:49PM Saturday October 16, 2021 12:03 AM EDT (04:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:32PMMoonset 2:18AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 952 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through late Saturday night...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening...then a chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of light showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202110160815;;748633 FZUS63 KDTX 160152 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 952 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.80 inches, is moving across Lake Erie today, with a stronger cold front moving across the central Great Lakes for tomorrow. Cooler post-frontal air will increase sustained winds up to 20-25 knots on Saturday, with gusts on the order of 25-30 knots. Unsettled marine conditions will continue through Sunday as cooler northwest to westerly flow persists. Cooler air over the relatively warmer waters will also bring chances for waterspouts over the weekend. LCZ460-160815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Clemens, MI
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location: 42.58, -82.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 160345 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1145 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

AVIATION.

A large area of rain is currently lifting northward out of the Ohio River Valley towards Southeast Michigan. The rain is associated with organized differential cyclonic vorticity advection occurring ahead of a strong PV anomaly. A lot is happening to the thermodynamic environment as a good amount of cold advection is occurred between 2.0 and 10.0 kft agl. Lapse rates have steepened considerably in the lower troposphere which has knocked out the low column inversion. Ceilings have temporarily improved this evening with the loss of the strong static stability. Rain activity will overspread the area again as a strong ageostrophic response to dcva steepens the cold frontal slope. Bulk of data supports VFR rain shower activity tonight with differential near surface cold advection supporting some shallow convective instability and MVFR to potential pockets of IFR after 09Z. Post frontal northwest flow will support a well mixed boundary layer and VFR clouds Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* High in ceilings at or below 5000 feet late tonight and Saturday. Low confidence during the mid to late evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 422 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

DISCUSSION .

Showers have thinned considerably across Southeast Michigan this afternoon. Recent models have remain overly aggressive with respect to near-term coverage, thus hedged down and removed all instances of categorical PoPs. As expected, lightning activity has been sparse, but non-zero as a couple strikes cropped up earlier near Dundee. Still possible to see a couple additional isolated strikes between now and 00Z given small amount of elevated instability near the Western Erie and Detroit River communities. Responsible surface low currently resides southeast of Monroe and will continue tracking northeast this evening and overnight. A lull in activity arises late evening before deformation-forced showers lift through late tonight. Overnight lows drop into the upper 40s to low 50s with NW surface wind shift.

Large upper trough progresses eastward Saturday morning with the axis pivoting over Lower Michigan. Notable decrease in H8 temps as the thermal trough works into the Great Lakes with morning values near 10C collapsing to almost 0C by the evening hours. It will take some time for the mid and upper levels to veer northwesterly and mirror the lower troposphere before deep-layer CAA ensues. Expect a sufficiently cooled boundary layer with high temperatures stuck in the mid-upper 50s, a solid 4-7 degrees below climatological normals. Although lapse rates will be steep in the lowest 5 kft (approaching dry adiabatic), saturation layer appears very shallow during the afternoon limiting precipitation to more virga than rain with anything that taps into shallow moisture channel off the warm waters of Lake Michigan. Did leave a period of Slight Chance PoPs for any brief showers that get going within the interior while Lake Huron fetch will suffice for slightly broader activity along the eastern Thumb. Inherited gusts look reasonable given only minor weakening trend from the crossing LLJ. Daytime stratocumulus scatter out after midnight facilitating several hours of nocturnal cooling guiding overnight lows into the 40s. A few inland areas to the north could briefly dip below 40F.

Heights begin to rebound on Sunday as the back edge of the trough arrives. Upper level confluence limits synoptic scale ascent and forecast soundings depict a column largely devoid of moisture. There will be a few afternoon clouds once the PBL matures which also supports renewed breeziness until the evening hours under uniform northwest flow. Amplified upstream ridge atop The Rockies will begin to shear out as Pacific NW PV anomaly intercepts the western edge. Dry and moderating conditions locally with minimal wind Monday through Wednesday before the next wave takes aim at Lower Michigan. Unsettled conditions on Thursday with stacked low followed by a chillier weekend.

MARINE .

A low pressure system over Lake Erie is moving along a frontal boundary stretching across the southern portions of Lake Erie and southwest into Indiana. This system is producing widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the central Great Lakes with a greater concentration of activity across Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into early Saturday as the main upper trough axis and stronger cold front moves across the western and central Great Lakes. There will be a much greater lake response behind this front as much cooler air filters into the region. The cold air moving over the relatively warmer waters will bring a chance for waterspouts over the weekend. Winds will also increase with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots likely across Lake Huron Saturday. Gusts will be around 25 to 30 knots. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all marine zones for Saturday.

HYDROLOGY .

An area of low pressure passes this evening with ample supply of moisture. While most of the heaviest showers remain just to the east, downpours are possible through this evening followed by several rounds of lighter showers late tonight. Total additional rainfall through Saturday morning is forecast to range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches. The long duration and weaker rainfall rates minimize impacts to localized ponding along roadways, poor drainage, and low- lying areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ444.



AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . AA HYDROLOGY . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 8 mi63 min WNW 6G11 57°F 1008.8 hPa (-1.4)
45147 - Lake St Clair 13 mi63 min N 9.7G12 60°F 65°F1 ft1007.2 hPa (-1.2)
AGCM4 16 mi45 min 56°F 65°F1007.3 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 35 mi45 min 60°F 1006.3 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI3 mi67 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F56°F100%1008.3 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi70 minWNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F53°F84%1008.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi68 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F55°F92%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW3W3W3W40SE40E4NW4N3E30N4N5N4NE60N74NW9N10NE7W7
1 day agoSE8SE7SE400SE3S4S4S3SW6SW8S6SW8SW4SE6SE6E3SE30NW110SW3W4W4
2 days agoSW6SW6SW6SW5SW5SW6SW8W7W4SW3SW6SW8S8SW10SW9
G15
SW7S8SW4SW600S5SE7SE8

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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