Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 2:46 AM   Moonset 1:00 PM

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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 945 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
Rest of today - South winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.Thursday - North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon - .then becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 020358 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1158 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

- Shower and thunderstorm (70-80% chance) return on Friday.

AVIATION

Slightly cooler and much drier air remains inbound ahead of weak Midwest surface high pressure late tonight. Clouds are therefore limited to patches of cirrus with clear sky at lower levels across southern Lower Mi. A greater component of mid level clouds is noted to the north which will be monitored as cloud layer wind veers northerly toward sunrise. The latest trends in observations and guidance suggest mbS could be brushed with low end VFR coverage but with limited predictability on timing/duration. Otherwise, it's not until late in the day when a more notable increase in mid and high clouds occurs accompanied by light wind becoming a lake breeze enhanced easterly direction into Thursday evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

DISCUSSION...

The ongoing passage of a cold front, which coincides with peak diurnal heating, have allowed daytime highs to push into the mid to upper 70s. The capped and dry environment along the front will inhibit showers production and at best has been met with cumulus congestus along and ahead of the front. Deep mid to upper level subsidence in the wake of the front coupled with mixing will prevent cloud cover from redeveloping. This brings sunny skies for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Ongoing breezy conditions with gusts 25 to 35 mph will cease after sunset as the stable layer settles in. For tonight, very subtle cold air advection coupled with generally clear skies (outside of periodic cirrus), will drop temperatures into the 40s for a low.

Diffuse surface high pressure alongside shortwave ridging aloft will bring another round of dry conditions tomorrow. The possible exception will be the shallow corridor of weak system relative isentropic ascent centered around h800 that will bring the low-end chance to see sprinkles or a stray shower through the afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low for measurable precipitation to constitute any PoP values above 15%. Otherwise, temperature highs return into the 70s, outside of the Tri-Cities and bordering shoreline, as northeast flow ushers cooler air inland. A stark difference along the shoreline will be felt with highs in the mid 50s.

An upper-level wave stemming from a meandering upper-low across the Central Plains will pinch off into the upper Great lakes Friday, which will amplifying the aforementioned ridge downstream across the southern Great Lakes. This will usher in temperatures that will rival today, characterized by h850 temperatures up to 15C by Friday morning. With the warmer air will come the amplified Gulf stream moisture, pushing PW values aoa 1.20 inches. A shortwave trough will capitalize on the enhanced moisture and will likely bring periods of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms, with the best chances centered Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm potential and characteristics of thunderstorms are still under question as this period falls outside the hi-res window (outside of 3km NAM). The GFS/3KM NAM showcase low-level capping and inhibit CAPE potential, while the NAM affords a period of free convection with a marginal wind threat. Modeled analogs do not highlight strong or severe storm potential which is the ongoing message at this time.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances exist both Saturday and Sunday under the warm airmass with shallow moisture, but again capping with resident dry air in the mid-level uncertainty is high regarding upscale growth potential. The potential for unsettled weather will continue into next week with long-range models projecting the development of low pressure across the northern Plains to western portions of the midwest, which will reinforce warm and unstable conditions across the Great Lakes.

MARINE...

Gusty southwest to westerly flow within the immediate wake of cold frontal passage will persist through the evening hours, before gradually diminishing with loss of daytime heating. This will maintain small craft conditions from Saginaw Bay to the lake Huron nearshore waters along the tip of the thumb. Modest wind speed from the northwest expected overnight and early Thursday as high pressure builds into the region. Winds establish an easterly component late Thursday as the high exits the region. A low pressure system is forecast to track across the northern great lakes Friday. This will draw a cold front through lower Michigan, bringing increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds holding from the southeast at less than 20 knots in advance of this front Friday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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