Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 4:19 AM   Moonset 7:04 PM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405080900;;817674 Fzus51 Kbuf 080218 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 1018 pm edt Tue may 7 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-080900- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 1018 pm edt Tue may 7 2024
Rest of tonight - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely after midnight. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 080141 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 941 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Sunny and dry weather expected this afternoon but a warm front moving in tonight brings the threat for showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Tomorrow, a cold front moves through with the threat for a few isolated strong storms in the late morning and early afternoon. Cooler and showery weather is expected late week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
935 PM update...

Again, the main change with this forecast was to the temperatures and dew points. Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures have fallen a bit since the last update, now in the 50s and 60s. Cloud cover will increase from the west over the next few hours and that should slow down the cooling. Slight adjustments were made to PoPs based on some of the 00z guidance that has come in. Otherwise, we are awaiting the showers that are slowly creeping through western NY and PA. Models continue to show some limited instability, though elevated, so low chances for thunder were kept in the forecast.

630 PM update...

Conditions are a bit drier than expected as dew points are low.
Temperatures are still mild though, leading up to a pleasant evening. Minor changes were made to temperatures, though slightly more changes were needed for dew points. Sky cover was also touched up as a layer of high clouds are moving through the area. As for the rest of the forecast, it all was doing well and needed no additional changes.

230 PM update...

Sunny skies with a pocket of dry air moving through aloft evident in water vapor imagery has caused dew points to fall with day time mixing. Winds are fairly light but relative humidities have fallen to around 30 percent for much of the region. Deeper moisture is trying to make its way in from central PA so NEPA is fairing a bit better with RH this afternoon. Tonight, a warm front lifts in with clouds increasing as well as a threat for some rain showers and elevated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings do get up near 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE and with 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, there is a small threat for some hail though hail size overnight should stay sub severe with CAPE being skinny.

Tomorrow is looking a bit more interesting as there is a weak elevated mixed layer moving through in the morning to early afternoon where mid level lapse rates get up over 7 C/km with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots associated with a jet streak moving overhead. Some of the CAMs do get to have over 1000 J/km of surface based CAPE in the afternoon with little capping. Despite there being good lapse rates and weakly capped surface based CAPE is the lack of a trigger at the time we have the ingredients in place for severe storms. There is a 500 mb vorticity wave moving through northern NY so right now the NY thruway corridor has the best chance at seeing a stronger storm in the afternoon with large hail and wind being the main threat if a storm can get going. Decided to keep at least a slight chance of thunderstorms in the grids for tomorrow afternoon as any outflow from storms farther away could trigger storms to develop later in the day despite no mid level triggers.

Wednesday night is looking cooler with a cold front dropping south and skies clearing and dry air advecting in at lower levels of the atmosphere. With stronger boundary layer winds, temperatures were not lowered below model guidance yet but if there can be some decoupling, good radiational cooling will cause temperatures to fall below forecasted values.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Low pressure will track eastward from the Ohio Valley to the east coast Thursday and Thursday night. Enough lift and moisture will overrun a warm front to result in the development of showers. The coverage of showers is actually a bit more uncertain and will depend on how convection evolves over the next couple of days. Some of the modeling is trending south with this 12Z cycle. That is an entirely plausible outcome with convection involved. Still the bulk of ensemble data shows about half an inch of QPF with locally higher amounts in NE PA and the Southern Tier of NY. Clouds and showers will likely keep temperatures in the 60's during the day then only fall into the 50's at night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The previously mentioned low pressure system looks to linger on Friday keeping some showers around. A broad mid-level trough will continue to be over the region with several additional weak cold fronts and disturbances to keep some chances of showers around most days with the highest chances this weekend. Chilly as well with lows in the 40's and highs getting into the 50's/60's. Actual timing of the disturbances is still highly uncertain.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are expected across all terminals this evening before showers and thunderstorms move in tonight after 06Z. Dry air remains in place preventing ceilings from initially falling before the rain arrives at the terminals. Model guidance hints at a few hours of IFR ceilings at BGM & AVP later tonight. Remaining terminals will see MVFR to Fuel Alt impacts with these showers. There is some instability as the showers move through so thunder is possible.
Confidence is too low to include in the TAF yet as showers will be isolated to scattered in nature. Instead heavy rain showers were added for the best estimated timing of the potential thunderstorms.

Showers move out soon after sunrise as drier air moves back in.
VFR conditions return to all terminals by late morning and last through the remaining TAF period. Winds begin to pick up in the afternoon with gusts ranging up to 25-30 knots across sites.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon... isolated yet gusty thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions.

Wednesday night through Sunday...Periods of showers with some restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region, especially Thursday-Friday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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