Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Baltimore, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 6:49PM Saturday October 16, 2021 4:50 AM EDT (08:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:31PMMoonset 2:18AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 952 Pm Edt Fri Oct 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through late Saturday night...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening...then a chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of light showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202110160815;;748633 FZUS63 KDTX 160152 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 952 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.80 inches, is moving across Lake Erie today, with a stronger cold front moving across the central Great Lakes for tomorrow. Cooler post-frontal air will increase sustained winds up to 20-25 knots on Saturday, with gusts on the order of 25-30 knots. Unsettled marine conditions will continue through Sunday as cooler northwest to westerly flow persists. Cooler air over the relatively warmer waters will also bring chances for waterspouts over the weekend. LCZ460-160815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI
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location: 42.6, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 160805 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 405 AM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

DISCUSSION.

Ongoing area of light rain will slide east and depart by mid- morning as midlevel height falls and CVA exit to the eastern Great Lakes. This process is being governed by an amplified longwave trough pivoting across the Great Lakes which finally ushers out the active baroclinic zone that led to several days of wet weather. Strong negative thickness advection ensuing through the day with 850mb temps tumbling from 10C last evening to around 0C by later this afternoon. This cold advection will activate the lake effect response with a healthy stratocumulus field enveloping the region this afternoon and possibly producing some isolated sprinkles. Additionally, steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in breezy conditions with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. Highs in the mid to upper 50s today which for most areas will be the first day with highs below 60 since September 23.

The loss of daytime heating promotes scattering of clouds this evening which leads into a night of favorable cooling conditions. Lows in the 40s tonight may feel cool given the stretch of recent warm weather, but will be right around normal for mid-October. An active westerly gradient will keep winds from completely decoupling and prevent further cratering of temps. Meanwhile, the resident longwave trough will begin its departure by Sunday morning.

Confluent upper flow spills over the Great Lakes through the day Sunday as the upper jet moves in on the backside of the trough. Shortwaves within the energetic northwest flow with some lingering cold advection may be sufficient to trigger some showers mainly over the eastern Thumb on Sunday. Otherwise, dry weather and mostly sunny skies prevail with temperatures beginning a rebound with the exit of the thermal trough. Still breezy on Sunday with a relatively deep mixed layer developing within the dry ambient environment with a persistent northwest gradient.

Benign conditions dominate the early and mid week as tropospheric ridging expands eastward. The ridge axis itself is progged to stall just to our west on Monday and slowly dampen in response to a strong Pacific low tracking across the intermountain west. Northwest winds then back to the southwest by Tuesday and Wednesday which allows for a shift to a warm advective regime. This brings the return of warmer conditions with highs in the upper 60s both days. Active weather returns Wednesday night into Thursday as the aforementioned Pacific low reaches the Great Lakes bringing our next chance of rain. This system is advertised to bring the return of more seasonable conditions for Friday into the weekend.

MARINE.

Mainly showers through early today as the main upper trough axis and stronger cold front moves across the western and central Great Lakes. There will be a much greater lake response behind this front as much cooler air filters into the region. The cold air moving over the relatively warmer waters will bring a chance for waterspouts over the weekend. Winds will also increase with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots likely across Lake Huron Saturday. Gusts will be around 25 to 30 knots. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all marine zones through today. Lingering precipitation with a chance for waterspouts continues across central and northern Lake Huron tonight before activity clears out during the day Sunday. High pressure then brings quieter marine conditions during the early week, though the cooler air keeps some elevated wind gusts to around 20 knots across Lake Huron on Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

AVIATION .

A large area of rain is currently lifting northward out of the Ohio River Valley towards Southeast Michigan. The rain is associated with organized differential cyclonic vorticity advection occurring ahead of a strong PV anomaly. A lot is happening to the thermodynamic environment as a good amount of cold advection is occurred between 2.0 and 10.0 kft agl. Lapse rates have steepened considerably in the lower troposphere which has knocked out the low column inversion. Ceilings have temporarily improved this evening with the loss of the strong static stability. Rain activity will overspread the area again as a strong ageostrophic response to dcva steepens the cold frontal slope. Bulk of data supports VFR rain shower activity tonight with differential near surface cold advection supporting some shallow convective instability and MVFR to potential pockets of IFR after 09Z. Post frontal northwest flow will support a well mixed boundary layer and VFR clouds Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceilings at or below 5000 feet late tonight and Saturday. Low confidence during the mid to late evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ444.



DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . AA AVIATION . CB

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 10 mi50 min 55°F 65°F1007.3 hPa (+0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi50 min WNW 16G18 58°F 65°F2 ft1006.8 hPa (-0.2)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi50 min WNW 5.1G8.9 56°F 1008.5 hPa (-0.3)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 30 mi50 min 56°F 1005.8 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI7 mi54 minWNW 610.00 miLight Rain56°F56°F100%1007.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI20 mi57 minNW 55.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F55°F93%1007.6 hPa
St Clair County International Airport, MI24 mi55 minWNW 410.00 miLight Rain55°F54°F94%1007.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr0SE40E4NW4N3E30N4N5N4NE60N74NW9N10NE7W7W9NW5NW6W7NW6
1 day agoSE3S4S4S3SW6SW8S6SW8SW4SE6SE6E3SE30NW110SW3W4W4SW3SW3W3W3W4
2 days agoSW6SW8W7W4SW3SW6SW8S8SW10SW9
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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