Tuesday, December7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Milford, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 5:01PM Tuesday December 7, 2021 7:17 PM EST (00:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:31AMMoonset 8:43PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0088.000000t0000z-211014t2330z/ 652 Pm Edt Thu Oct 14 2021
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4181 8349 4195 8337 4196 8328 4225 8318 4232 8312 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4178 8334 time...mot...loc 2251z 256deg 28kt 4235 8301 4192 8315
LCZ423 Expires:202110142302;;190090 FZUS73 KDTX 142252 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 652 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 LCZ423-LEZ444-142302-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milford, MI
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location: 42.65, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 072318 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 618 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

AVIATION.

Weak lift with an upper-level disturbance will aid in the production of light snow centered during the early morning hours Wednesday. The forcing will be slightly better north of the I-94 terminals. Will maintain prevailing light snow PTK north with PROB30 YIP/DTW/DET. Any snow observed is expected to progress east to northeast out of the region after ~12Z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low in ceilings at or below 5000 ft on Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 350 PM EST Tue Dec 7 2021

DISCUSSION .

Broad upper level confluence aloft has led to 1023mb surface ridging extending northward out of the Ohio River Valley. A cold day across Southeast Michigan today with afternoon temperatures running in the low to mid 20s areawide. The values are roughly 15 degrees below seasonal averages.

Entrance region to upper level jet will remain progressive sliding into the central and eastern Great Lakes by 06Z tonight. A quick action in pseudo-zonal flow will cause a potential vorticity trough to pivot through Southeast Michigan between 06-18Z. Absolute cyclonic vorticity within the trough is very disorganized which brings bulk of synoptic scale forcing in the initial geopotential height falls 06-12Z tonight. Really kind of tricky on where to settle with the PoPs late tonight. The overarching problem is the forecasted UVVs/omega is very weak tonight. Qualitatively, the best of the system relative isentropic ascent appears to be early this evening between 00-06Z, which will be necessary to moisten/saturate the column. Soundings look adequate for snow generation with saturation wrt ice through the DGZ but again limited omega. While the operational ECMWF is showing a widespread couple hundredths of liquid equivalent, a tendency metric from time lagged models including HRRR/RAP runs has shown a strong decreasing trends for PoPs overnight. For a more consistent forecast with neighbors and given the consensus of the hires solutions, did lower PoPs into the chance category between 6-12Z. The high confidence portion of this event is that snow amounts will be limited to a couple of tenths or a dusting. The issue is that with temperatures in the low 20s that any moisture on roadways may result in icy conditions for the Wednesday morning commute.

Weak disturbance will track into Ontario/Quebec Wednesday before ridging extends back across all of Southeast Michigan Wednesday night. Strong differential height rises will lead to warming and temperatures rising into the middle to upper 30s Thursday. Southern stream energy is forecasted to cross over tracking through Southeast Michigan Thursday night. Really no question on ptype given the sounding with a cold profile and elevated frontal surface through the DGZ. Strong anticyclonic curvature to trajectories will limit ascent over Southeast Michigan but models are consistent with widespread light snow north of I 69.

Models showing great continuity with dynamic winter storm system next weekend. Way too early to discuss much on details, but high confidence exists for this far out that Southeast Michigan will remain within the warm sector of the this system. An extreme low level jet setup with +50 knots at 850mb may bring some elevated thunder. Windy conditions to follow Saturday and Saturday night.

MARINE .

High pressure has spread across the area resulting in west-southwest winds with gusts holding below 20 knots. This has allowed the high waves from last night to continue to subside through the day. A pair of weak systems will merge over the straits tonight and consolidate into a single low which will ridge over the ridge into Ontario Wednesday morning. This will result in a several hour period of light snow tonight after midnight. Wind speeds will change little from this system but directions will veer to the northwest on Wednesday behind a trough axis. A stronger upper level trough will track across the Plains Wednesday and approach the Great Lakes Thursday. This will bring increasing winds out of the southeast.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi17 min WSW 4.1G6 23°F 1022.4 hPa (-1.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 68 mi89 min WSW 2.9G5.1 25°F 1021.8 hPa11°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI13 mi22 minSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy19°F15°F83%1020.3 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI17 mi24 minWSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy20°F10°F65%1022.1 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi24 minS 310.00 miFair20°F12°F71%1022.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE11SE8SE7S5SW8W9W8W7SW8SW8W13W11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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