Tuesday, November30, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Erie Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 4:45PM Tuesday November 30, 2021 7:34 PM EST (00:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:40AMMoonset 2:39PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:202112010415;;690169 Fzus51 Kbuf 302254 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 554 Pm Est Tue Nov 30 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-010415- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 554 Pm Est Tue Nov 30 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain likely early, then a chance of rain showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. Showers likely. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of rain showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Erie Beach, NY
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location: 42.69, -79.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 302326 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 626 PM EST Tue Nov 30 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will clip our region tonight with a brief period of lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario, with moderate accumulations on the Tug Hill. Elsewhere a few rain and wet snow showers will continue tonight, with minor accumulations for the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. Fair weather Wednesday to start meteorological winter will be short-lived as the next weather system reaches Western New York Wednesday evening as a wintry mix changing over to plain rain Wednesday Night. A strong cold front Thursday with gusty winds will send the rain back over to snow by Thursday Night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Radar imagery showing an area of rain/snow mix blossoming east of Lake Erie early this evening in response to increased convergence from the passing synoptic scale trough passage combined with marginal lake instability. The activity east of Lake Erie will peak during early to mid evening, then quickly fade away overnight as drier air and subsidence build over Lake Erie. The higher elevations east of Lake Erie may pick up an inch or so of snow this evening.

East of Lake Ontario, a broad area of light snow will continue this evening in response to DPVA ahead of a passing trough and low level convergence. An area of lake enhancement is embedded within this across the Thousand Islands region this evening. Boundary layer flow will veer overnight, forcing lake enhancement to move south across the Tug Hill, ending up in Oswego County before daybreak. Synoptic scale moisture and ascent will be stripped away overnight following the trough passage, so the diffuse area of lake enhancement will evolve into a little more focused band of lake effect snow overnight briefly, before weakening Wednesday morning.

The constantly veering wind profile overnight will keep the band of lake effect/enhanced snow on the move, and prevent any heavy snow at any one location. Nonetheless, expect a few areas of the Tug Hill to see 4-6" of accumulation overnight. The higher snow totals will be very elevation dependent given the marginal temperatures, with 1-3 inches for surrounding lower elevations.

Surface high pressure to the south . aiding in pushing this drier airmass aloft northward will move across our region tomorrow. This will result in fair weather the balance of the day, though clouds will break for just a little sunshine. Any sunshine during the morning and early afternoon hours will quickly fade from west to east as mid and high level clouds increase ahead of the next storm system. This system may bring a few rain or snow showers to far WNY late in the day.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Mid-level shortwave over western Canada tracks across Upper Great Lakes late Wed night into Thu morning. Deepening sfc low blo 990mb will shift from north of Lake Superior to the Ontario/Quebec border on Thu morning and across Quebec into Thu afternoon. Warm front ahead of the low lifts across the area Wed night. Soundings show mismatch of mid-level and low-level moisture. Result is scattered rain and snow showers switching over to mainly rain showers for all but the Tug Hill late Wed night. Temps will rise as the warm front crosses with readings into the mid 40s by daybreak for western NY and in the upper 30s to lower 40s otherwise, coolest east of Lake Ontario. Maybe an inch of slushy snow on the Tug Hill before warmer air arrives. Also over the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario, suppose there is a small risk that if temps near sfc stay around freezing, a touch of freezing rain or icing could occur if the warm air aloft gets in quicker. Pretty low risk of this though. Otherwise, for even locations in the higher terrain of western NY that see some snow early on Wed evening, looking at minimal snow accumulations with warming temps. SW winds increase late with gusts over 30 mph late northeast of Lake Erie at Niagara Falls and Buffalo Metro.

Cold front approaches Thu morning. Surge of deeper moisture and lift ahead of the upper low along with increasing low-level jet will support at least a brief expansion of rain showers over much of the region into midday. SW winds will increase further with gusts likely over 40 mph for much of western NY and near 45 mph closer to the lakeshores especially where SW winds are onshore. Despite the showers and clouds, the warm start should boost highs into the upper 40s to around 50, warmest lake plains to the Genesee valley. Cold front then crosses region mid to late afternoon. Soundings show cold air advection in the H925-H85 layer will tap into stronger winds aloft. Gusts over 40 mph should be common over much of western NY mid to late afternoon with gusts over 30 mph most everywhere right into early evening. Cold air eventually switches any rain showers back to snow showers, first over higher terrain east of Lake Ontario then eventually over higher terrain elsewhere. By late Thu night, a mix of rain/snow may be occurring at the lower elevations as well but with H85 temps only -6c to -8c and sfc temps only dropping to mid 30s, not sure complete switch to snow will occur.

On Friday, NW flow in wake of the front with temps at top of 5kft inversions lowering to -8c to -10c will result in some light lake effect during the morning. Anticyclonic flow becomes quickly established though and there is plenty of dry air above inversion, so intensity will be light. NW flow could lead to some connections to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay upstream, so that could offset the weakening trend somewhat. Later Fri, winds back and warm air advection develops so lake effect will end. Next trough aloft slides across Ontario and Quebec Fri night, so have only low chance pops for some snow showers. Right now, best chances would be across North Country. Highs on Fri mainly the 30s with mid to upper 20s for most locations Fri night though teens could occur east of Lake Ontario before any light snow with the trough arrives.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Good agreement that a clipper will be tracking from the Upper Great lakes into northern New England Saturday. This will likely bring a round of light rain or snow to the region. A northwest flow and better moisture may bring a few inches of snow across the Tug Hill region into Saturday night. Elsewhere, drier conditions with high pressure moving into the region will limit accumulation at this time.

Ensemble members diverge later in the weekend into the start of the next work week with the strength, speed, and track of low pressure moving across the Great Lakes. There is the potential for widespread precipitation and strong winds Sunday night into Monday night however confidence is low due to the lack of any anomalous signals from the ensemble forecast systems. Temperatures will be below normal through the period.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The most persistent snow will be found east of Lake Ontario tonight, from a passing trough this evening and then lake effect overnight. This will produce areas of IFR VSBY/CIGS, impacting KART this evening before lake effect moves south overnight. Somewhat heavier snow from upslope will produce LIFR on the Tug Hill. The lake effect east of Lake Ontario will diminish Wednesday morning, with CIGS/VSBY improving to MVFR, then VFR later in the day.

For the rest of the area, a few rain/wet snow showers will continue this evening with areas of MVFR CIGS/VSBY, with a brief period of lake enhancement east of Lake Erie producing local IFR in snow east of Lake Erie. This will mostly end overnight with just a few light snow showers left and mainly MVFR CIGS. Most of Western NY will improve to VFR by Wednesday afternoon as lake effect clouds scatter out.

Outlook . Wednesday night and Thursday . VFR/MVFR. Rain or snow showers likely. Windy. Friday . Mainly VFR. A chance of rain or snow showers. Saturday . MVFR. A chance of lake effect snow showers. Sunday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. As we proceed through tonight . winds will continue to strengthen on both lakes behind a cold front that is passing across southern Canada. This will bring high end Small Craft Advisory conditions to both Lakes Erie and Ontario. There will be a brief lull in winds late morning through early evening Wednesday as a ridge axis builds across the eastern Great Lakes.

Moderate to fresh winds will be in place throughout the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday night. Near gale force winds can be expected Thursday and Thursday night, with the strongest winds on Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/Thomas NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/Thomas SHORT TERM . JLA LONG TERM . HSK AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock/Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi46 min 40°F 1009.3 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 14 mi34 min W 23G28 42°F 1010.5 hPa (+0.4)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 24 mi46 min W 17G21 39°F 43°F1009 hPa33°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 30 mi46 min 38°F 1008.8 hPa
NREP1 41 mi124 min W 15G30 42°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY14 mi-43159 minW 13 G 2310.00 miOvercast42°F33°F71%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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This dayS5SW7S4--0S5----S10S9--S8S8S7S8S6SW9SW8SW9S8S7SW10W12
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1 day agoNW13N10N7N7N7N9NW7N7NW9NW7N7NW7NW7NW5NW65W8W56W3SW8S5S6SW5
2 days agoS5SW7SW8S8SW5S4S4E300S6S6S5S8S8S8W10
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NW9NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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