Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Moravia, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 4:59PM Sunday January 16, 2022 8:55 PM EST (01:55 UTC) Moonrise 3:37PMMoonset 6:53AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202201170415;;474053 Fzus51 Kbuf 162041 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 341 Pm Est Sun Jan 16 2022 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-170415- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 341 Pm Est Sun Jan 16 2022
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Monday through Tuesday evening...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast and increasing to 30 knots this evening. A chance of snow early. Snow late this evening, then snow with a chance of sleet after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds to 30 knots becoming northwest. Snow. Waves 8 to 12 feet subsiding to 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Lake effect snow. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Snow and rain likely during the day, then snow Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Moravia, NY
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location: 42.71, -76.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 162333 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 633 PM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

SYNOPSIS. A strong winter storm will bring accumulating snow, an icy mix, and gusty winds to the area tonight and Monday. Accumulating lake effect snow will follow Monday night into Tuesday. A clipper system will bring another chance for light rain and snow to the area midweek, with Arctic air returning late in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/.

So far the airmass is saturating a bit faster than modeled. Another general tick upward in QPF has occurred with some of the latest mesoscale guidance. This overall has raised snow totals by an inch or so for most locations west of I-81. Travel conditions will start to worsen rapidly an hour or two after the snow starts.

355 PM Update:

Ahead of the approaching storm, clouds have increased from south to north this afternoon as expected. A few light snow showers cannot be ruled out across parts of Northeast PA before sunset, but the majority of the activity will hold off until after sunset. After a very cold morning, temperatures as of 3PM are mainly in the 20s.

A strong area of low pressure will track from the Carolinas to basically right over our forecast area tonight into Monday morning, before quickly pulling away to the northeast throughout the day on Monday. Ahead of this system, snow will overspread the area from south to north this evening ahead of a warm front on the northern edge of the system. Latest 12Z guidance has trended towards more QPF in the 00Z-06Z timeframe (7PM-1AM EST). With temperature profiles supporting all snow at the onset, this means that snow amounts have been increased for that timeframe, especially for Northeast PA-Southern Tier of NY. This will be a quick thump of snow, with snowfall rates reaching up to 1 inch per hour at times. With a warmer southeast flow coming in off the Atlantic, warmer air aloft will change the snow to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from south to north tonight. Parts of the Wyoming Valley in PA will likely change to plain rain after midnight. Best chance for precipitation to remain all snow will be across the Central-Southern Tier of NY and the southern Finger Lakes, and therefore this where our highest snowfall amounts are forecasted to be.

With the low tracking almost right over our area, a dry slot is expected to move into the region by dawn Monday morning. This will allow the heavier precipitation to begin to become much lighter in nature, with perhaps even a few dry breaks. As the storm pulls away Monday afternoon, cold air advection will allow winds to shift to a more northwesterly direction. Therefore, any remaining wintry mix will gradually change back over to light to moderate snow, especially across Central NY.

Due to the higher QPF expected between 7PM and 1AM tonight and the associated higher snowfall totals during this timeframe, storm total snowfall has also increased a bit from our previous forecast. In total, now expecting a swath of 8-12 inches of snow for much of the Finger Lakes Region and the Central-Southern Tier. Farther east (in the vicinity of the I-81 corridor), downsloping winds off the Catskills and Poconos, as well as a wintry mix after midnight will likely deflate totals a bit, with generally 5-9 inches of snow expected. Then totals increase once again towards the Poconos and Catskills with some orographic lifting. At least a light glaze of ice is expected for the majority of the area too. Despite the storm being on our doorstep, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding these totals. If precipitation changes to a wintry mix sooner, snow totals may be a little lower and ice accumulations may be a little higher.

In addition, winds will become quite gusty tonight, with widespread gusts of 30-40 mph. Some areas east of I-81 (especially the higher elevations) may have gusts of 40-50 mph. The combination of heavy snow, ice, and these winds may cause some power outages.

In terms of headlines, opted to upgrade most of the Winter Weather Advisories that were previously in effect to Winter Storm Warnings (except for Luzerne and Wyoming counties in PA). While coverage of snow amounts may not technically reach the typical warning criteria threshold of 7 inches in 12 hours in NY; 6 inches in 12 hours in PA across all of these counties (at least 50 percent coverage), opted to issue Winter Storm Warnings based on the high impacts after coordinating with our surrounding offices. As previously mentioned, the combination of heavy snow, ice, and gusty winds will cause problems. On top of this, the ground will take a much longer time to warm up due to the arctic airmass that has been in place the last couple of days. This may enhance icing impacts on surfaces. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Luzerne and Wyoming counties with considerably less snow and ice expected.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Lingering snow showers will remain as the low pressure system pushes off to the NE. NW flow will fill in behind the low, bringing another shot of cold air to the area. 850mb temps will fall from -12C to - 16C throughout the night, allowing for lake effect snow to develop across the northern counties. Streamlines show a connection to the Georgian Bay so inland extent of the lake effect snow could reach into Otsego county through the early morning hours. This connection is short lived as a ridge builds in from the Great Lakes, changing the wind pattern and advecting in dry, stable air. Lake effect showers should last through the morning and will diminish by early afternoon. Current snow accumulations are expected to be 1-3 inches across Onondaga, NW Madison and western Oneida Counties.

Cold air advection from the NW flow will allow for lows to drop into the mid teens to low 20s Monday night, with highs on Tuesday expected to only rise a few degrees from the overnight lows.

The ridge will quickly traverse the region ahead of the next clipper system moving into the area from the Great Lakes. Isentropic lift associated with a warm front pushing into the area overnight Tuesday into Tuesday morning. A rain/snow mix is expected Wednesday afternoon as WAA will raise afternoon highs into the low to mid 30s. SW flow will allow for the Southern Tug Hill to have the best chance for accumulating snow through Wednesday afternoon.

The clipper will pull a cold front through the CWA as it leaves the area Wednesday afternoon. Scattered light scattered snow showers will spread across the area as the front passes. More lake effect snow is expected north of the Thruway through the overnight hours. Currently, the wind pattern is set up for scattered, diffuse showers coming off Lake Ontario instead of a band forming. Evening temps in the low 30s will slowly fall to the mid to upper teens by daybreak.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Lake effect snow showers will continue into Thursday and Thursday night as Arctic air makes another return to the area. Lows Thursday night and Friday night will be in the negative single digits to just above zero across the area.

The synoptic pattern through the weekend is still in question as a trough digs into the eastern US. Confidence in precipitation across the area is low so NBM guidance was relied upon for the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Clear skies and VFR skies expected through 00Z. An incoming winter storm will bring heavy snow, dropping conditions to IFR starting around 00z as the snow begins to move in from the south, and quickly drop conditions to LIFR to VLIFR visibility by 02s for AVP/ELM/BGM/ITH. SYR/RME will begin to see snow and IFR conditions by 2z with LIFR/VLIFR beginning around 04z.

Heavy snow is expected to last into the overnight hours, changing to a wintry mix from south to north, beginning at around 05Z for AVP and 09z for RME. A dry slot will make its way in from south to north as well a few hours later, dropping precipitation chances for all terminals through the morning hours. Conditions will still be mostly IFR across the area as ceilings drop with the center of the low moving through the area. MVFR conditions are expected at AVP as the wintry mix will switch over to rain after 16z and downsloping winds should keep ceilings up.

Along with these restrictions, strong LLWS will be present across all terminals as this winter storm moves through the area. Most terminals will see 45-50kts of shear up to 2000ft through the overnight hours, with AVP seeing 55-65kts.

Outlook .

Monday afternoon . Restrictions likely in snow showers in the afternoon. Strong northwest wind gusts by the afternoon.

Monday night through Tuesday . Restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals due to lake effect snow showers and clouds.

Wednesday . Restrictions in scattered rain and snow showers, especially NY.

Wednesday Night through Thursday . Restrictions in Lake Effect snow a showers and low clouds, mostly over NY.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM EST Monday for PAZ038>040-044- 048-072. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST Monday for PAZ043-047. NY . Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM EST Monday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

SYNOPSIS . BJG NEAR TERM . BJG/MWG SHORT TERM . JTC LONG TERM . JTC AVIATION . JTC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 52 mi56 min SSE 4.1G8 24°F 1014.3 hPa (-1.5)1°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 73 mi56 min SSE 8.9G11 28°F 1013.9 hPa (-1.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 75 mi56 min 28°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last 24 hrSE4
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY16 mi60 minESE 81.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist22°F18°F85%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hr0NE30E3E4E4E5E3E30E4E4SE4SE8SE9S12S13S14S18
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1 day agoN10
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N8NW8NW10N8N7N6N8N5N7N6N8N6NW12N10N10
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2 days agoNW5W5NW4NW5NW5NW5N7N9N9N9N6N6N7NW13
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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