Thursday, January20, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Websters Crossing, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 5:08PM Thursday January 20, 2022 6:38 PM EST (23:38 UTC) Moonrise 7:54PMMoonset 9:28AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 645 Am Est Thu Jan 20 2022
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers during the day, then snow showers likely Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202201201615;;517669 FZUS51 KBUF 201145 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 645 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-201615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Websters Crossing, NY
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location: 42.71, -77.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 201958 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 258 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

SYNOPSIS. Very cold with some nuisance lake effect snow showers south and southeast of the lower Great Lakes tonight through Friday afternoon, with below normal temperatures lasting right through the weekend. After a dry and seasonably cold day Saturday, a cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes with lake effect snows returning for Saturday night and Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. A cold Canadian N/NW flow will continue to have a grip on the region. This will support a spray of some nuisance light lake effect snow showers S/SE of the Lakes through the remainder of the afternoon. Minor accumulations possible with up to an inch in the most persistent snows south of Lake Ontario, with up to a half inch possible across the Boston Hills and the Chautauqua Ridge off Lake Erie. Temperatures may gain another degree or two by late afternoon, however low to mid teens will about do it, with single digits across the North Country. A light breeze will create wind chills in the zero to negative 5 degree range for most areas.

Tonight, surface ridge builds east across the central Lakes and southeast Ontario Province with winds becoming fairly light. This will allow a northerly flow of cold Canadian air to continue to cross over the lower Lakes, allowing the spray of some nuisance light lake effect snow showers S/SE of the Lakes to persist through the night. Additional minor accumulations will be possible with up to an inch in the most persistent snows south of Lake Ontario, highest from Monroe to N Cayuga counties, with up to a half inch again possible across the Chautauqua Ridge off Lake Erie. Frigid night expected with temps falling to the negative mid teens across the North Country, with the remainder of the area within plus or minus a few degrees of zero. Despite the lighter winds, wind chill values as low as -25F will occur east of Lake Ontario where a Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect. Wind chills across the remainder of the area will be no lower than the negative low teens, which is very cold, however not cold enough to meet wind chill headline criteria.

A very cold start to our Friday with the spray of light lake effect snow showers continuing through the morning hours, mainly south of Lake Ontario, with additional accumulations of a half inch or so possible in the most persistent snows from Monroe and Ontario counties east to N Cayuga County through midday. High pressure will build east into northern NYS and Vermont Friday afternoon further disrupting boundary layer flow and bringing even drier air causing most of the light lake effect snow shower activity to contract to near the southern shore of Lake Ontario by the end of the day. Otherwise, another very cold day with highs ranging from the single digits east of Lake Ontario and across the hilltops of the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes to the teens elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will ridge from central New York to northern New England Friday night. Lake effect snows and clouds will contract across the open waters, leaving mainly clear skies across the forecast area long with light winds. Favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to drop below zero at many locations, with lows down to 20 below at some spots in the North Country. Wind chill headlines may not be needed Friday night due to the light winds.

High pressure drifting off to our east will maintain dry weather Saturday. There will be at least some moderation in temperatures as weak warm air advection develops, but only getting temperatures back into the 20s across western New York and teens for the North Country.

There's an increasing potential for lake effect snow Saturday night into Sunday. A shortwave and an elongated surface trough extending southward from a clipper low will move across the area late Saturday night. Although synoptic moisture will be limited, it should be ample to enhance a lake response. With 850mb temperatures around - 15c there will be enough lake induced instability and the trough will raise inversion heights to about 8k which will be able to support lift in a favorable dendritic snow growth zone.

This is reflected in latest model guidance, particularly the RGEM which shows a band developing northeast of the lakes late Saturday night, then dropping southward and settling east of the lakes during Sunday. Then on Sunday night, lake snows will diminish in intensity while settling southeast of the lakes due to northwesterly winds.

It appears the most impressive snow amounts will be off Lake Ontario due to upstream moisture it will get from Lake Erie. Advisory amounts (3-6 inches) are likely in Jefferson county, and considering liquid water/snow ratios are likely to reach 20:1 even warning amounts greater than 7 inches cannot be ruled out. Doesn't look quite as impressive off Lake Erie, but still could see advisory amounts Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. For the Buffalo metro area, steadiest snow would likely would come when the band drops from north to south during Saturday night. Areas not impacted by lake effect still could get some general snow showers as the trough moves through Sunday with brief bursts of snow resulting in light accumulation.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. An upper level trough will maintain winter's chill as well as storm tracks over our region Monday and Tuesday of next week. Diminishing lake effect snow on a light wind to the northeast of the Lakes Monday will give way to a surface low driven by a northern jet shortwave from the west Tuesday that will bring widespread and light snowfall across the region. Behind this feature lake effect snow is likely Tuesday Night and into Wednesday.

Thereafter a surface high will build towards our region Wednesday Night and Thursday. There are model differences on speed of this feature, with differences in timing impacting wind direction as well as how quickly drier air filters in to diminish the lake effect snow.

Temperatures will predominately be below normal this period. The exception will be Tuesday when ahead of the surface low enough of a southerly wind may bring temperatures to just above normal before colder air pushes back into our region Tuesday Night.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. There will be a spray of nuisance light lake effect snow showers S/SE of the Lakes right through tonight, producing MVFR CIGS and intermittent MVFR/IFR VSBYS at times. Otherwise, VFR will be found outside of the lake clouds and snows and east of Lake Ontario.

Mainly VFR expected Friday morning east of Lake Ontario (including KART), with CIGS across the western Southern Tier also expected to scatter out as flow becomes more out of the NNE. Mainly MVFR CIGS and intermittent MVFR VSBYS due to scattered light snow showers expected to continue from the Niagara Frontier (KBUF/KIAG) over to KROC through midday, with slow improvement expected here through the second half of the day.


Outlook .

Friday afternoon and Saturday . Mainly VFR. Sunday . MVFR/IFR with snow showers. Monday . Mainly VFR. A chance of snow showers. Tuesday . MVFR/IFR with snow showers likely.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisories have been dropped for all zones as N/NW winds and waves continue to lessen. Surface ridge builds east nearing the lower Great Lakes tonight, then sets up across the lower Lakes through the start of the weekend, providing light winds and minimal wave action. Winds will then freshen again Saturday night, which will bring the next possibility of Small Craft headlines.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for NYZ006>008. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . JM NEAR TERM . JM SHORT TERM . Apffel LONG TERM . Thomas AVIATION . JM MARINE . JM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 38 mi39 min W 8.9G13 13°F 1033.2 hPa (+2.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 39 mi51 min 13°F
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 71 mi51 min N 4.1G7 12°F 33°F1030.6 hPa1°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Last 24 hrW17
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY12 mi2.7 hrsNNW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds13°F1°F59%1031.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDSV

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNW4NW7NW13N10NW12NW11NW9NW12
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1 day agoS3SE6SE60S7SE10SE6SE12
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2 days agoNW14NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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