Sunrise 5:26 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:22 PM   Moonset 2:12 AM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 105 Pm Cdt Wed May 15 2024
Rest of today - North wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - North wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering northeast after midnight veering east early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. Thursday - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday night - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 151504 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1004 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Next round of showers and storms expected for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Some could be strong, but coverage will be scattered.

- Warming trend into the weekend with just chances of rain and a few rumbles of thunder.

UPDATE
Issued 956 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

No major changes to the going forecast today.

Keeping an eye on tomorrow as morning runs of the CAMs are depicting a better environment for a strong storm or two tomorrow afternoon into the evening as we'll see a wedge of a warm sector in Wisconsin between an advancing warm front and cold front. We'll have more details with the afternoon AFD.

CMiller

SHORT TERM
Issued 346 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Today through Friday night:

Scattered stratus over far srn WI will dissipate later this morning as low pressure weakens as it moves ewd across the Ohio Valley, and nly winds bring drier air into the region.
Otherwise the sfc ridge will remain over WI today before shifting ewd tnt. Temps will return to the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland with near 60 at the lake front.

A weak sfc low and upper level trough will move from MN to wrn Lake Superior on Thu. PWs will increase to 1-1.2 inches with very marginal instability, but increasingly moist soundings. The HRRR and GFS/ECMWF support likely PoPs from west to east through the day as the trough passage extends south into the area. Scattered showers to then linger into Thu nt with the weakening sfc trough passage over the area and another weak shortwave trough approaching from the west. The trough will pass early Fri AM but isold showers could linger in far ern or srn WI. Some uncertainty on timing of drying for Fri which will impact cloud cover and temps. At this time counting on some sunshine with temps ranging from the 60s near the lake to middle to upper 70s over south central WI. Shortwave ridging and a dry fcst for Fri nt.

Gehring

LONG TERM
Issued 346 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Saturday through Tuesday:

Ridging nudging northward into the Upper Mississippi Valley and steady southerly winds at the surface may lead to widespread temperatures over 80 degrees on Saturday. Modeling has come into agreement that the interplay between an Ohio Valley low and a 500 mb shortwave driven low in Canada and the northern Plains will drape a cold frontal feature through Wisconsin Saturday evening, although better forcing remains across northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan as upper level ridging steers the northern low into northern Canada. In addition, this upper level ridging brings in warmer air aloft and prevents instability development during the day. Therefore, kept the NBM 15 to 30 percent PoPs for this timeframe.

High pressure remains prominent through Saturday night into Sunday, with an additional shortwave propagating eastward from the Colorado Rockies Sunday night into Monday and a developing low in the lee of the Canadian Rockies creating a baroclinic zone in the Upper Midwest. Plenty of uncertainty remains in exact timing and intensity of precipitation across southern Wisconsin from Sunday onward as triggers for convection transition to a shortwave-driven pattern beneath general ridging. Because of uncertainty, left NBM PoPs alone. However, there will likely be periods of dry conditions Sunday into Monday.

Intrusion from the tropical jet stream into the central Plains midweek may result in enhanced cyclogenesis and therefore better chances for widespread precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday.

Gehring

AVIATION
Issued 1004 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions today amid light to moderate northeasterly winds.
Light winds become more easterly overnight, remaining light, with scattered high clouds moving in as well. Tomorrow, clouds increase from west to east, with scattered storm activity anticipated in the afternoon and evening.

CMiller

MARINE
Issued 346 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Low pressure around 29.6 inches will move across the Ohio Valley today, while the surface ridge of 29.9 inches over WI moves across Lake Michigan tonight. Modest northerly winds over the lake today will become light and variable tonight.

Light to modest east to southeast winds will then develop for Thursday and Thursday evening as weakening low pressure around 29.6 inches tracks from northern Minnesota into western Lake Superior. Light and variable winds are then expected Friday and Friday night as weak high pressure develops over the lake late on Friday.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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