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FXUS63 KLBF 282313 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 613 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers should linger across north central Nebraska this evening.

- Seasonal to near seasonal temperatures are expected this week.

- Rain chances return on Tuesday and will persist into next weekend.
The best chances for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

H5 analysis from this morning had a closed low just off to the west of North Platte Nebraska. A trough extended south of this feature into far western Texas. Immediately east of the trough axis, strong shortwaves extended from central Texas into the Ozarks. Further downstream, a ridge extended from the Carolinas, north to Lake Ontario. West of the trough and low, a secondary shortwave trough was located over southern Alberta with a closed low noted off the coast of central British Columbia. At the surface, low pressure was located over southeastern Nebraska. A warm front extended to the east into central Iowa. A cold front extended south of the low into central Kansas and western Oklahoma. Skies were cloudy this afternoon and very light rain showers were occurring over the central Sandhills into portions of central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 3 PM CT, ranged from 43 at Gordon and Thedford, to 51 degrees at Imperial.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Upper level low pressure will migrate northeast from northern Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota overnight. Weak lift will persist across far northern and northeastern portions of the forecast area this evening, and will lead to a continued threat for light rain through midnight. Thereafter, skies will continue to clear into the overnight with cool temperatures developing across the forecast area. For lows tonight, generally followed the inherited forecast with a couple of modifications. The first was to adjust lows up slightly in the northeast where cloud cover, in association with the exiting low, could hold on until daybreak Monday. Second, lowered lows slightly in the northwest to bring them more in line with the latest guidance. This led to lows ranging from around 30 in the northwest, to the middle 30s in central and northeastern portions of the CWA This will facilitate frost across most of the forecast area. Will still forgo any frost/freeze headlines tonight as we are about a week away climatologically from our median date for issuing these products. Finally, after looking at the latest NAM12, HRRR and CONSHORT there is a fog signal in the west tonight. This is co- located with some lighter winds toward daybreak Monday. With this in mind, will insert a mention of fog for the western Sandhills tonight. Monday will be mainly clear with highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. On Monday night, a northern stream disturbance will lift across northern Wyoming, forcing a cool front into the northwestern CWA at 12z Tuesday.
The latest NBM probabilistic forecast has a 20 to 40 percent chance of >0.01" of precipitation late Monday night. With this in mind, went ahead and inserted some 20 pops in the far NW after 06z Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The cool front will transition across the forecast area Tuesday. Impacts to high temperatures will be greatest across the northern forecast area as the front is not expected to pass through southern and eastern areas until early afternoon. Along the front, precipitation chances will increase with better chances over northern Nebraska where mid level forcing is more favorable. Probabilistic forecasts for measurable (>0.01")
precipitation are not great Tuesday and pops were limited to around 30 percent. A second, stronger upper level trough will lift across the northern Rockies Wednesday night into Thursday, leading to the development of surface low pressure over eastern Colorado. A warm front will extend to the northeast of this feature into southeastern Nebraska. ATTM, with this setup, the bulk of severe storms should remain east of the area Tuesday night through Thursday. With the forecast area being north of the warm front and in good easterly upslope was concerned initially about heavy rain potential Wednesday night. The latest WPC outlook has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall generally east of a line from Hayes Center, to Hershey, to Lynch. Current probabilistic forecasts from the NBM only have a 20 to 30% chance of better than a half an inch of rainfall in the marginal risk attm and this lends some doubt as to heavy rain potential Wednesday night/Thursday. Beyond Thursday night, the forecast becomes problematic. The pattern appears to become more zonal into the weekend. This will lead to temps in the 60s/lower 70s. Precipitation chances will be less certain toward the weekend given the zonal mid level flow and no pronounced mid level forcing.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The area of MVFR/IFR ceilings and -SHRA/-DZ across the Sandhills and ncntl Nebraska will lift north and east very slowly tonight and Monday morning. Widespread VFR expected across ncntl Nebraska by 18z Monday.

Along and south of Interstate 80, VFR should be widespread overnight and Monday except for one potential flight concern.
Dry air moving in aloft tonight and light sfc winds may produce patchy valley fog, 3-5 mile vsby, 09z-14z Monday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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