Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Johns, NE
May 20, 2024 4:19 AM CDT (09:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 9:01 PM Moonrise 5:25 PM Moonset 3:34 AM |
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 200916 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 416 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* A slight risk of severe weather is possible on this evening (Monday evening) with large hail up to baseball size, severe winds up to 75 mph, and heavy rainfall up to 2 inches as the primary threats.
* Active weather continues through mid-week, although, severe potential remains low at this time.
* Cooler temperatures return on Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s before gradually warming through the end of the week (into the 70s by the weekend).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
The main weather story in the short term will be the potential for severe thunderstorms this evening and into the overnight. Dewpoints will increase across the region by late this morning and into the afternoon as low level moisture advection intensifies. Moderate instability will also develop across southwest and south central Nebraska by the late afternoon. Ample instability will exist across the region to support the development of supercells across the Panhandle and into northeast Colorado. These storms will track eastward into southwest and south central Nebraska by early evening.
Current model guidance suggests lapse rates above 7 C/km and shear above 50 knots. This combined with significant CAPE (over 1500 J/kg), not to mention large CAPE in the -10 to -30 C layer, will be enough to support very large hail (potentially up to baseball sized)
with these supercells. This environment will also create the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph.
The initial round of storms, the supercells, will have the greatest potential to have the large hail and strong winds. As these storms move eastward, another round of storms are expected to develop behind them, which are not expected to be as intense as the environment becomes worked over. However, these showers and thunderstorms could still produce hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph for a few hours (through late evening). Eventually, storms will weaken and congeal into a MCS for the remainder of the overnight hours. This round will have the greatest potential to have heavy rainfall with may result in localized flooding. At this time, up to 2 inches of QPF are expected across southwest Nebraska and into north central Nebraska. Have decided not to issue any flood headlines at this time as this total rainfall will occur over 24 to 30 hour timeframe. Although, some flash flooding of low lying areas or small streams is not entirely out of the question especially if a heavier shower drops a half inch or more in a short period of time.
Will continue to monitor this as the event evolves tonight.
Heading into Tuesday, rain showers and embedded thunderstorms continue throughout the day, although there are expected to be some breaks. The severe risk is low for Tuesday as a cooler airmass pushes in behind the departing front and the environment remains well mixed. Still, we'll have to be cognizant of the flooding potential heading into Tuesday afternoon especially across areas that have already seen heavy rainfall Monday night and early Tuesday.
Regarding temperatures, highs will drop from the low 60s to low 70s today into the mid 50s to low 60s on Tuesday. This will be nearly 10 degrees below normal for Tuesday (normals in the low to mid 70s).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
A series of disturbances will continue to impact Nebraska through the weekend. At this time, severe weather risk remains uncertain with confidence remaining low on timing, track, and locations.
However, based on the latest guidance, best chance to see convection will be in the late afternoon and early evening as diurnal heating and instability is greatest. Will continue to monitor these systems as the week progresses and those with outside plans in the evening should stay weather aware and be prepared to make alternate plans.
For temperatures, cooler temperatures from Tuesday will give way to a slow rise in temperatures into the weekend. Current model runs indicate 850 mb temperatures to rise back into the 10 to 16 degree C range by the weekend. While this will not equate to exceptionally warm surface highs, especially with showers and thunderstorms each day, highs will rise back to near normal in the mid 70s by the weekend. Low temperatures also return from the low 40s on Tuesday night into the low 50s by Saturday night which is just slightly above normals for this time of year.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
VFR conditions are likely through the bulk of the valid forecast period. Main aviation concerns will focus on transient, shallow fog early in the period followed by gusty winds during the daytime and then the threat for rain and thunderstorms late.
Shallow fog has floated around the LBF terminal. Forecast soundings show very shallow moisture near the surface but this is expected to shift east closer to sunrise as winds increase out of the north. Winds will gradually veer to easterly during the daytime with gusts increasing to 25 to 30 knots as they do.
Eventually rain and thunderstorms will move in from the west.
Timing of this is medium confidence at this time with 1-2 hour difference in various short-term guidance at this time. For now, will hedge towards the mean value with adjustments possible later. Convection will likely contain gusty erratic winds and at least MVFR visibility reductions. Further degraded conditions are possible but will hold off on including at this time.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 416 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* A slight risk of severe weather is possible on this evening (Monday evening) with large hail up to baseball size, severe winds up to 75 mph, and heavy rainfall up to 2 inches as the primary threats.
* Active weather continues through mid-week, although, severe potential remains low at this time.
* Cooler temperatures return on Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s before gradually warming through the end of the week (into the 70s by the weekend).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
The main weather story in the short term will be the potential for severe thunderstorms this evening and into the overnight. Dewpoints will increase across the region by late this morning and into the afternoon as low level moisture advection intensifies. Moderate instability will also develop across southwest and south central Nebraska by the late afternoon. Ample instability will exist across the region to support the development of supercells across the Panhandle and into northeast Colorado. These storms will track eastward into southwest and south central Nebraska by early evening.
Current model guidance suggests lapse rates above 7 C/km and shear above 50 knots. This combined with significant CAPE (over 1500 J/kg), not to mention large CAPE in the -10 to -30 C layer, will be enough to support very large hail (potentially up to baseball sized)
with these supercells. This environment will also create the potential for significant wind gusts up to 75 mph.
The initial round of storms, the supercells, will have the greatest potential to have the large hail and strong winds. As these storms move eastward, another round of storms are expected to develop behind them, which are not expected to be as intense as the environment becomes worked over. However, these showers and thunderstorms could still produce hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph for a few hours (through late evening). Eventually, storms will weaken and congeal into a MCS for the remainder of the overnight hours. This round will have the greatest potential to have heavy rainfall with may result in localized flooding. At this time, up to 2 inches of QPF are expected across southwest Nebraska and into north central Nebraska. Have decided not to issue any flood headlines at this time as this total rainfall will occur over 24 to 30 hour timeframe. Although, some flash flooding of low lying areas or small streams is not entirely out of the question especially if a heavier shower drops a half inch or more in a short period of time.
Will continue to monitor this as the event evolves tonight.
Heading into Tuesday, rain showers and embedded thunderstorms continue throughout the day, although there are expected to be some breaks. The severe risk is low for Tuesday as a cooler airmass pushes in behind the departing front and the environment remains well mixed. Still, we'll have to be cognizant of the flooding potential heading into Tuesday afternoon especially across areas that have already seen heavy rainfall Monday night and early Tuesday.
Regarding temperatures, highs will drop from the low 60s to low 70s today into the mid 50s to low 60s on Tuesday. This will be nearly 10 degrees below normal for Tuesday (normals in the low to mid 70s).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 414 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
A series of disturbances will continue to impact Nebraska through the weekend. At this time, severe weather risk remains uncertain with confidence remaining low on timing, track, and locations.
However, based on the latest guidance, best chance to see convection will be in the late afternoon and early evening as diurnal heating and instability is greatest. Will continue to monitor these systems as the week progresses and those with outside plans in the evening should stay weather aware and be prepared to make alternate plans.
For temperatures, cooler temperatures from Tuesday will give way to a slow rise in temperatures into the weekend. Current model runs indicate 850 mb temperatures to rise back into the 10 to 16 degree C range by the weekend. While this will not equate to exceptionally warm surface highs, especially with showers and thunderstorms each day, highs will rise back to near normal in the mid 70s by the weekend. Low temperatures also return from the low 40s on Tuesday night into the low 50s by Saturday night which is just slightly above normals for this time of year.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024
VFR conditions are likely through the bulk of the valid forecast period. Main aviation concerns will focus on transient, shallow fog early in the period followed by gusty winds during the daytime and then the threat for rain and thunderstorms late.
Shallow fog has floated around the LBF terminal. Forecast soundings show very shallow moisture near the surface but this is expected to shift east closer to sunrise as winds increase out of the north. Winds will gradually veer to easterly during the daytime with gusts increasing to 25 to 30 knots as they do.
Eventually rain and thunderstorms will move in from the west.
Timing of this is medium confidence at this time with 1-2 hour difference in various short-term guidance at this time. For now, will hedge towards the mean value with adjustments possible later. Convection will likely contain gusty erratic winds and at least MVFR visibility reductions. Further degraded conditions are possible but will hold off on including at this time.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KANW AINSWORTH RGNL,NE | 10 sm | 24 min | NNW 10 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 48°F | 77% | 29.80 |
North Platte, NE,
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