Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wood Lake, NE
May 19, 2024 6:41 PM CDT (23:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 9:00 PM Moonrise 4:22 PM Moonset 3:17 AM |
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 192328 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 628 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms continue to push through the area tonight, with some thunderstorms remaining strong to severe.
Thunderstorm activity picks up again Monday evening continuing through Tuesday morning, bringing another round of potentially severe weather.
- Heavy rainfall will be possible with thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday morning, with widespread amounts greater than 1 inch likely across most of the forecast area.
- A mid week cool off brings a limited threat for frost, with the most likely area for frost across portions of the Panhandle.
- The pattern remains active through the week, bringing near seasonal temperatures and chances of precipitation throughout the week.
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Upper air analysis and satellite imagery this afternoon place an upper level shortwave across the Montana-North Dakota border, with a deeper trough over western Oregon. At the surface, a low pressure system is located over western South Dakota, with a warm front extending through the Nebraska Panhandle. On satellite, a few pronounced thunderstorms are noticed over south central Nebraska and north central Kansas, with another developing line of thunderstorms over the Nebraska Panhandle.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Ongoing convection over the Panhandle will continue to push east through the evening, with the potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. As such, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 02Z for areas primarily along and south of Highway 83.
Convection will continue through late this evening, when latest guidance has storms weakening out around midnight. After the storms tonight, a brief but relatively calm period settles in overnight through Monday afternoon. Guidance has cooled off a bit for Monday's high temperatures, so have followed suit and trended temperatures down slightly. High temperatures should still remain near seasonal, but on the cooler side of climatology. By Monday afternoon, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to form along the Nebraska Panhandle and begin pushing eastward.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
As showers and thunderstorms progress eastward tomorrow evening, another round of severe weather will be possible. Current forecast soundings seem quite supportive of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has included most of southwest Nebraska and portions of the southern Sandhills in a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow. Of concern are the areas along southwest Nebraska, where the SPC is identifying the potential for 2 inch hail and 70 mile per hour wind gusts.
On top of the severe weather potential tomorrow evening, heavy rain will be possible with thunderstorms across the region. Precipitable Water values continue to be forecast in the 90th percentile across the region. The heavy rain potential also continues to be highlighted in the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails, indicating higher confidence in an anomalously high rain event.
Continued to agree with Weather Prediction Center guidance, which continues to bring at least 1 inch of rain across most of the region, with an area across the Sandhills up to 2.5 inches. Given the convective nature of the expected system and the anomalously high PWATs, would not be surprised if a few areas reported 3 inches or greater. WPC continues to highlight an area from southwest Nebraska to northeast Nebraska with a Marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall, so will definitely be worth watching.
Another shot of cool air invades the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Of potential concern will be overnight low temperatures across the Panhandle Wednesday morning. Guidance generally maintained temperatures, however some of the lower end guidance brings temperatures that would be conducive to frost. Still feel the threat for frost remains on the lower side, but cannot rule out the potential that frost may be observed in portions of the Panhandle Wednesday morning.
The upper level pattern remains fairly active, with several shortwaves forecast to impact the region through the end of the week. Chances of precipitation remain through the end of the week, though there may be a bit of a dryer period Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon, when PoPs do not currently exceed 30 percent.
Temperatures should remain fairly seasonal with the active upper level pattern.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Convection ahead of an approaching cold front continues to move across Nebraska. However radar trends indicate TAF sites will either be brushed by the activity or may be bypassed entirely. Lacking confidence in showers/thunder at TAF sites will not include any VCSH/VCTS at KLBF but will use VCSH at KVTN and will amend as needed. The potential for any precipitation will diminish rapidly after 02Z and expect dry conditions through the overnight period. Expect flight conditions will mainly be VFR, though there is a signal for some stratus/fog to develop across south central Nebraska toward daybreak. However given the probability of sub- VFR at KLBF is 20 percent or less will not include with this TAF issuance and will revisit for the 06Z issuance. Any redevelopment of convection tomorrow looks to be late in the afternoon toward the end of this valid period so will maintain a dry forecast and revisit timing with later issuances.
Southerly Winds have been quite gusty today and will remain gusty for a bit after issuance, but will indicate a downward trend in winds early. Winds will become northwest as the front passes tonight and become gusty again before daybreak, then remain gusty through Monday. There may also be some low level wind shear around as brisk winds aloft react to the frontal passage.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 628 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms continue to push through the area tonight, with some thunderstorms remaining strong to severe.
Thunderstorm activity picks up again Monday evening continuing through Tuesday morning, bringing another round of potentially severe weather.
- Heavy rainfall will be possible with thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday morning, with widespread amounts greater than 1 inch likely across most of the forecast area.
- A mid week cool off brings a limited threat for frost, with the most likely area for frost across portions of the Panhandle.
- The pattern remains active through the week, bringing near seasonal temperatures and chances of precipitation throughout the week.
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Upper air analysis and satellite imagery this afternoon place an upper level shortwave across the Montana-North Dakota border, with a deeper trough over western Oregon. At the surface, a low pressure system is located over western South Dakota, with a warm front extending through the Nebraska Panhandle. On satellite, a few pronounced thunderstorms are noticed over south central Nebraska and north central Kansas, with another developing line of thunderstorms over the Nebraska Panhandle.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Ongoing convection over the Panhandle will continue to push east through the evening, with the potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. As such, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 02Z for areas primarily along and south of Highway 83.
Convection will continue through late this evening, when latest guidance has storms weakening out around midnight. After the storms tonight, a brief but relatively calm period settles in overnight through Monday afternoon. Guidance has cooled off a bit for Monday's high temperatures, so have followed suit and trended temperatures down slightly. High temperatures should still remain near seasonal, but on the cooler side of climatology. By Monday afternoon, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to form along the Nebraska Panhandle and begin pushing eastward.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 349 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
As showers and thunderstorms progress eastward tomorrow evening, another round of severe weather will be possible. Current forecast soundings seem quite supportive of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has included most of southwest Nebraska and portions of the southern Sandhills in a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow. Of concern are the areas along southwest Nebraska, where the SPC is identifying the potential for 2 inch hail and 70 mile per hour wind gusts.
On top of the severe weather potential tomorrow evening, heavy rain will be possible with thunderstorms across the region. Precipitable Water values continue to be forecast in the 90th percentile across the region. The heavy rain potential also continues to be highlighted in the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails, indicating higher confidence in an anomalously high rain event.
Continued to agree with Weather Prediction Center guidance, which continues to bring at least 1 inch of rain across most of the region, with an area across the Sandhills up to 2.5 inches. Given the convective nature of the expected system and the anomalously high PWATs, would not be surprised if a few areas reported 3 inches or greater. WPC continues to highlight an area from southwest Nebraska to northeast Nebraska with a Marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall, so will definitely be worth watching.
Another shot of cool air invades the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Of potential concern will be overnight low temperatures across the Panhandle Wednesday morning. Guidance generally maintained temperatures, however some of the lower end guidance brings temperatures that would be conducive to frost. Still feel the threat for frost remains on the lower side, but cannot rule out the potential that frost may be observed in portions of the Panhandle Wednesday morning.
The upper level pattern remains fairly active, with several shortwaves forecast to impact the region through the end of the week. Chances of precipitation remain through the end of the week, though there may be a bit of a dryer period Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon, when PoPs do not currently exceed 30 percent.
Temperatures should remain fairly seasonal with the active upper level pattern.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Convection ahead of an approaching cold front continues to move across Nebraska. However radar trends indicate TAF sites will either be brushed by the activity or may be bypassed entirely. Lacking confidence in showers/thunder at TAF sites will not include any VCSH/VCTS at KLBF but will use VCSH at KVTN and will amend as needed. The potential for any precipitation will diminish rapidly after 02Z and expect dry conditions through the overnight period. Expect flight conditions will mainly be VFR, though there is a signal for some stratus/fog to develop across south central Nebraska toward daybreak. However given the probability of sub- VFR at KLBF is 20 percent or less will not include with this TAF issuance and will revisit for the 06Z issuance. Any redevelopment of convection tomorrow looks to be late in the afternoon toward the end of this valid period so will maintain a dry forecast and revisit timing with later issuances.
Southerly Winds have been quite gusty today and will remain gusty for a bit after issuance, but will indicate a downward trend in winds early. Winds will become northwest as the front passes tonight and become gusty again before daybreak, then remain gusty through Monday. There may also be some low level wind shear around as brisk winds aloft react to the frontal passage.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KVTN MILLER FIELD,NE | 13 sm | 49 min | SSW 19G33 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 75°F | 54°F | 47% | 29.72 |
| KANW AINSWORTH RGNL,NE | 22 sm | 26 min | SSW 16G22 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 55°F | 50% | 29.73 |
North Platte, NE,
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