Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chiloquin, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:03PM Thursday September 23, 2021 10:36 AM PDT (17:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:35PMMoonset 8:35AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chiloquin, OR
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location: 42.73, -121.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 231555 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 855 AM PDT Thu Sep 23 2021

DISCUSSION. Satellite imagery shows some marine stratus dissipating across portions of the Umpqua and Coquille Basins this morning with some stratus offshore as well. Overall, expect mostly clear skies for the rest of today. Some haze from distant wildfire smoke could waft over our area, especially over the east side. Noticed some higher winds across the coast mountains, so have bumped those up, but that is the only update at this time. -Schaaf

MARINE. Updated 830 AM PDT Thursday 23 September 2021 . A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast and result in another round of gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas on Thursday. The strongest winds and steepest seas will be south of Cape Blanco. Steep seas are expected to persist into early Friday, but will ease Friday afternoon through Saturday as the thermal trough weakens. Then a significant west swell will likely build into the waters early next week with the arrival of a cold front. The swell may arrive Monday night and peak in the 12-16 foot range on Tuesday. -Sandler

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 430 AM PDT Thu Sep 23 2021/

DISCUSSION . The forecast still separates into very warm and dry conditions through Sunday, then a shift to a cooler, active pattern with occasional chances of precipitation from Sunday night through the week and into week 2.

The ridge that was offshore yesterday will build into the region today into Friday. Few adjustments were necessary to the short term. The main adjustment is probably nudging today's high temperature in Brookings up to the upper 80s with the Chetco Effect of downslope easterly winds. The development of light southerly winds at Brookings on Friday will result in a return of a marine influence, joining the rest of the coast with typical, cool readings in the 60s. Otherwise, the forecast has been quite consistent in advertising strong warming inland today into Friday, then minimal cooling Saturday that will result in highs still generally a few degrees warmer than those of today. West side readings will be mainly in the 80s this afternoon, except lower 90s in western Siskiyou County, then several degrees hotter on Friday . which will be unusually warm but generally several degrees below record values. Meantime, east side highs will be mostly in the 70s today then the 80s on Friday. While under strong ridging, afternoon and evening wind speeds will be weaker than in recent days/weaker than normal.

For next week, as mentioned in the discussion of 24 hours ago, the 00Z GFS and GEFS ensemble members have in fact trended strongly toward the ECMWF depiction of a more progressive, cohesive/less split upper level flow pattern. So, while there are still important model differences that will affect precipitation amounts and wind speeds, we can be more confident in forecasting a lengthy period of cooler weather with occasional chances of wet weather, and breezy to windy westerly winds that will be strongest east of the Cascades. Although still not at high confidence yet, the biggest change from 24 hours ago is a higher confidence in the Sunday through Tuesday forecast.

The highest probability of rain in our area still looks to be near the coast, with a higher probability north of our area and with rainfall possibly, distinctly focused north of our area. Only a few ECMWF ensemble members bring rain to the coast from Coos Bay northward before the end of Sunday afternoon. But, the large majority do bring rain to the coast before the end of Sunday night. Monday through Tuesday and, to a lesser extent (higher uncertainty), Thursday through Friday look to have the highest probability of rainfall. A cold front passing Sunday night into Monday will be followed by the passage of an upper trough and associated wave on Tuesday. Some slight chance of thunderstorms may eventually need to be introduced into Tuesday with the highest probability across our northern tier from Coos across Douglas, and northern portions of Klamath and Lake counties.

Uncertainty ticks a notch higher on Wednesday, with a few members indicating a lingering risk of showers on the east side, and a few that already bring the next cold front to the coast in advance of the next trough. But, the highest probability for a dry break between systems. The next in a series of troughs is likely to begin to make its presence known on Wednesday night or Thursday, at least to a minor extent with continued breezy and cool conditions. There is higher confidence in continued good air quality and below normal to normal temperatures than in precipitation amounts/chances.

AVIATION . 23/12Z TAFs . Areas of IFR/LIFR fog/stratus will affect the coast Thursday morning north of Cape Blanco. There will be widespread fog and/or stratus in the Coquille Valley, and areas of low clouds and fog in the Umpqua Basin this morning. Otherwise, expect largely VFR conditions through Thursday evening. Gusty north winds will occur Thursday afternoon/evening at North Bend. Sandler

MARINE . Updated 230 AM PDT Thursday 23 September 2021 . A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast and result in another round of gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas on Thursday. The strongest winds and steepest seas will be south of Cape Blanco. Steep seas are expected to persist into early Friday, but will ease Friday afternoon through Saturday. Then a significant west swell will likely build into the waters early next week. The swell may arrive Monday night and peak in the 12-16 foot range on Tuesday. Sandler

FIRE WEATHER . Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday 23 September 2021 . Overall, relatively quiet weather is expected through the weekend. The only concern in the short term is moderate to locally poor overnight humidity recoveries in fire zones 618, 619, and western 280 tonight and Friday night.

Dry weather will continue through the weekend with temperatures heating up today and Friday. Temperatures will be highest in the Rogue, Illinois, and Klamath River Valleys where max values could end up in the lower to mid 90s. East of the Cascades will not be as hot, but still we an expect values in the lower to mid 80s. Slight cooling is expected Saturday and Sunday as the upper ridge flattens out with increasing onshore flow.

Winds through Saturday are not expected to be much of a concern. Typical afternoon breezes east of the Cascades, but nothing that is considered noteworthy.

Sunday through Thursday, the operational ECMWF and GFS are in pretty good agreement showing an increased chance for wetting rain along and west of the Cascades as an upper trough deepens offshore and a cold front approaches southwest Oregon. Unlike the last one, this front does not have a deep moisture fetch, therefore rainfall amounts are not going to be significant. There is better agreement this morning in model timing, but still important differences in the details that will determine precipitation amounts, wind speeds, and also a potential for thunderstorms on Tuesday.

The general consensus in the 8 to 14 day periods points to a strong upper ridge in the eastern third of the U.S. with a general troughiness in the Pac NW which would favor a progressive pattern in which the chance for above normal temperatures is quite low and there are frequent chances of precipitation.

-DW/Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Klamath Falls International Airport, OR42 mi44 minN 410.00 miFair58°F42°F56%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLMT

Wind History from LMT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3W13
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NW16NW14N12NW10W4CalmCalmN3N3N3NW5NE3N5E4E4N4N4
1 day agoCalmSE5SE7S4CalmCalmSE4NW5W3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmN4E3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmE5CalmSE4
2 days agoE9E6NE8E10
G16
NE10E9E5N5N10NW5CalmCalmE11CalmCalmSW3CalmNW3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNW4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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