Saturday, October23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Watervliet, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:01PM Saturday October 23, 2021 4:08 PM EDT (20:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:41PMMoonset 10:11AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watervliet, NY
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location: 42.73, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 231951 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 351 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. A dry and seasonable day is expected to close out the weekend with clouds increasing later in the day. Periods of rainfall are expected Sunday night into Tuesday with seasonably cool high temperatures and seasonably mild low temperatures. A brief period of dry weather is possible in the middle of the week before more wet weather is likely for the end of the week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. As of 330 pm, water vapor imagery is showing troughing across the forecast area. A disturbance rotating through the base of the trough is generating enough lift to produce some light showers over the eastern half of PA and southern tier and Catskills of NY. Obs and CAMs suggest a couple of these light showers could reach parts of the eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley, and NW CT this afternoon into the evening. Elsewhere, clouds will continue to increase for the rest of the day. Temps are not likely to rise much for the rest of the day.

Tonight, cloud cover will likely gradually clear out in the wake of the midlevel disturbance as a ridge of high pressure builds in. This should present good radiational cooling conditions tonight. Last night, most areas west of the Hudson fell into the upper 20s and low 30s, and we see no reason why this wouldn't happen again. In the Hudson Valley, there is likely to be less clouds around than last night, so lows will likely be a bit cooler in areas that stayed cloudy last night. Expecting mainly 30s. NBM lows were undercut by a couple of degrees.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Midlevel flow becomes fast and zonal on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will be in control early before shifting eastward. This should result in mainly clear skies to start off the day. Low level flow will back through the day in response to a midlevel shortwave trough crossing from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. A cyclone will develop in concert with this wave, and a low-level warm front will sharpen and approach the forecast area late in the day. Mid and high clouds will increase ahead of this disturbance, but it appears that the daylight hours Sunday will remain dry, leading to what will likely be our last pleasant day for some time. Highs will likely tick up a couple degrees from Saturday, close to normal mainly in the 50s.

Sunday night, robust isentropic lift will spread into the region, with lift enhanced by the equatorward entrance region of an upper jet. This leads to high confidence in an area of stratiform rainfall spreading SW to NE across the forecast area starting roughly 02-07Z. A few wet snowflakes could mix in at the summits of the southern Adirondacks/southern Greens at the onset. The warm front aloft and best isentropic lift will likely shift north of the forecast area by 15-18Z or so Monday, which should translate into steady rainfall tapering to showers or ending from south to north late morning into early afternoon. This will occur as the cyclone to our west becomes vertically stacked in the vicinity of Lake Erie. Main forecast challenge for the day is whether any portion of the area will get into a warm sector, or if winds remain with a northerly component for much of the day, leading to a cool, cloudy, drizzly solution. Evidence points to the latter scenario being more likely, so we have undercut NBM guidance for forecast highs over the area. They may need to be undercut more if confidence grows in cool N/NE flow dominating. The best chance for a warm sector briefly poking in is over our southernmost zones which stand the best chance of reaching the 60s. Elsewhere, highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s are forecast, but even that may be too optimistic if temps remain closer to the 2m temps off the 12Z.23 NAM12.

Monday night, energy rounding the base of the trough will result in it assuming a negative tilt and induce cyclogenesis to the lee of the central Appalachians/Delmarva. Southerly midlevel flow becomes diffluent over the local area, and low-level southeasterly flow will increase, resulting in increased moisture transport. This should allow another area of stratiform rain to blossom over the region, especially for the 2nd half of the night (some difference in model timing, though). Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out mainly south of Albany with Showalter values going negative. Will trend PoPs back upward through the night. The rainfall could be heavy especially south of Albany depending on where the surface low develops. Lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The weather pattern during the extended forecast period will be consistent with that of a La Nina: active (wetter than normal) and warmer than normal. The large scale longwave pattern will also be amplified during this period.

A couple of upper level troughs will eject/detach from the parent upper cyclone/storm over the eastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska region during this period. This will result in a couple of storm systems impacting eastern New York and western New England early this period and again later in the period. The first will impact the region Tuesday-Wednesday and the second Friday into the weekend.

We start off the long-term forecast period with the ALY forecast area placed in the cold-sector of the first of two upper level troughs/surface mid-latitude cyclone. Given the timing and synoptic setup, a widespread, soaking rainfall will be ongoing over the forecast area at the onset of this period (Tuesday morning). This storm system will not be short in supply of moisture as it originates from the Pacific Ocean and will have the chance to tap into additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. PWAT values are forecast to range between 1.00" to 1.25" (1 to 2 STDEVs above normal). That said, rainfall could be moderate to heavy at times. Rain will continue into Wednesday before coming to an end from west to east during the day on Wednesday.

Right on the heels of the first storm system will be another storm system that could potential bring the area another widespread rain. We'll get a brief reprieve from the wet weather on Thursday as a narrow high pressure builds into the area. During the day on Thursday though, this storm system will be ejecting out of the Rockies into the southern Plains and traversing across the mid-South before making its way the Ohio Valley/Appalachians and closer towards our region. PoPs, cyclonic vorticity advection, moisture advection and isentropic lifting are expected to increase from southwest to northeast Thursday into Friday. By Friday morning to Friday afternoon, rain is expected to overspread the area from southwest to northeast. Widespread, soaking rainfall will continue through the remainder of the extended or into Sunday. Will need to monitor the potential for flooding.

Temperature anomalies are expected to run slightly warmer than normal with highs near seasonable levels and low warmer than normal levels. Expect for high temperatures during the period to be in the 50s (40s higher elevations). Low temperatures are expected to be in the 40s (30s higher elevations).

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through Sunday at our TAF sites with light winds. SCT-BKN cu from 3500 to 5000 feet will be predominant this afternoon, then a layer of higher clouds from 8000 to 12000 feet will overspread the area late this afternoon through this evening. Skies will clear overnight, then just some high, thin clouds will be expected through early afternoon on Sunday. Localized patches of fog may develop for a few hours late tonight, especially at GFL.

Winds will be variable at less than 10 kts into Sunday afternoon.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. Sunday looks to be the last day without precipitation until at least midweek. Temps look to be near normal with minimum RH values 50 to 60 percent and light southerly winds. A wet pattern with multiple rounds of precipitation is expected Monday and Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY. After a dry day Sunday, periods of rainfall are expected Sunday night into Tuesday night. Periods of heavy rainfall are possible Monday night into Tuesday. Storm total QPF of 1 to 3 inches is likely during this timeframe, which will result in river rises. MMEFS suggests at least low probabilities of rivers reaching minor flood stage in the Mohawk, Hudson, Housatonic, and Hoosic basins if QPF ends up being on the higher side of this range.

After a brief period of dry weather midweek, another system may bring periods of widespread rainfall Friday into next weekend. This will have to be closely monitored for additional flooding potential.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Thompson NEAR TERM . Thompson SHORT TERM . Thompson LONG TERM . Evbuoma AVIATION . MSE/Speciale FIRE WEATHER . Thompson HYDROLOGY . Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 51 mi38 min SW 1 56°F 1013 hPa40°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY6 mi77 minWNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F38°F55%1014 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY15 mi13 minWNW 815.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F36°F54%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sat -- 02:07 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:37 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:10 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sat -- 01:57 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:29 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:00 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:46 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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