Sunday, January16, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Argentine, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 5:30PM Sunday January 16, 2022 4:44 AM EST (09:44 UTC) Moonrise 4:07PMMoonset 7:25AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0088.000000t0000z-211014t2330z/ 652 Pm Edt Thu Oct 14 2021
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4181 8349 4195 8337 4196 8328 4225 8318 4232 8312 4232 8307 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4178 8334 time...mot...loc 2251z 256deg 28kt 4235 8301 4192 8315
LCZ423 Expires:202110142302;;688775 FZUS73 KDTX 142252 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 652 PM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021 LCZ423-LEZ444-142302-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Argentine, MI
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location: 42.73, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 160858 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 358 AM EST Sun Jan 16 2022

DISCUSSION.

High pressure settling over southern Lower MI during the late night is the catalyst for clear sky and light wind heading into sunrise. The exception is patches of stratocu from Lake Erie which appear fragile in satellite imagery but still capable of holding temperatures around the 10 degree mark from the Ohio border up to metro Detroit. Areas to the north without the benefit of clouds report readings that range widely from the single digits below zero in the Thumb to single digits above zero toward the Tri Cities and Flint. The Lake Erie stratocu continues northward during the morning while shrinking in coverage and not really disrupting the potential for sunshine to help lift temperatures from the cold start to the day.

Signs of the central Canadian low pressure system show up as a high cloud increase this afternoon. This system, combined with the major winter storm moving into the SE states, push surface high pressure from the Great Lakes toward the New England coast. Displacement of the low level thermal trough then helps temperatures rise into the mid and upper 20s, which is still below normal but a noticeable improvement over Saturday when combined with lighter wind. Benign conditions then continue this evening as the gap closes between the Canadian and Atlantic coast systems. High clouds thicken and help hold temperatures in the teens to around 20 despite wind backing toward the north and increasing speed after midnight. The increased wind turns out to be the most notable change in conditions as the western fringe of snow from the Atlantic coast system barely brushes the Michigan/Ontario border. The 00Z models are locked in on the phasing process of upper level features and show good agreement that it does not result in any retrogression of the storm track during the night.

North wind increases further during Monday with gusts in the 30 mph range appearing reachable based on model soundings. The surface pressure gradient is dominated by the Atlantic coast system while the moisture profile is tied to the mid level trough. The phasing process brings the trough over Lower MI where is combines with steeper boundary layer lapse rate in support of scattered flurries. The deeper moisture also seeds a short time window of lake effect into the Thumb shoreline. It's not a great setup but is the only area of SE MI worthy of more than flurries as northerly flow overlaps with greater convective depth and improved microphysics for a few hours. Northerly flow then quickly turns NW to short circuit the fetch during the afternoon. Backing low level flow occurs as lake aggregate troughing sets up across the northern Great Lakes. The trough is shown across the range of deterministic model solutions as capable of holding polar air to our north Monday night with the help of the next low pressure system approaching from central Canada. Continued backing of the low level wind brings Lake Michigan into play for a few hours in which some stratocu and flurries become possible in SE MI. The wind quickly turns south by Tuesday morning ahead of a strengthening warm front connected to the deepening Midwest surface system. Leading south flow reaches all the way to the Gulf coast for some modified continental air carrying specific humidity in the 2-3 g/kg range into the moisture advection pattern over the Great Lakes. The wing of isentropic lift then reaches into central Lower MI by Tuesday night. Blended POP guidance is nudged up to entry level likely with accumulation generally less than 1 inch for the Tri Cities and northern Thumb by Wednesday morning. The trailing strong cold front then plunges SE MI back into arctic air to finish the week. Guidance highs are back down into the teens with lows in the single digits Thursday and Friday which could even be too optimistic.

MARINE.

Strong arctic high pressure near Georgian Bay will drift eastward towards the St. Lawrence River valley through the remainder of the weekend allowing moderate northeast flow to temporarily slacken before veering southerly today. Winds will again become moderate in strength especially over northern and central Lake Huron today in response to a tightening pressure gradient from deepening low pressure tracking northeast along the East Coast.

Winds will veer further to the northwest by Monday as the aforementioned low pressure system continues deepening to likely sub 980 hPa by the time it reaches the interior Northeast, with the further tightening of the pressure gradient resulting in gusts easily reaching 30 knots at times over the open Lake Huron waters with the cold air in place. Forecast trends will continue to be monitored closely for the potential issuance of gale headlines during this time. Behind the departing low, weak high pressure builds into the region before an Alberta clipper low moves southeast into the northern Great Lakes resulting in a strengthening of southerly flow out of ahead of it for the middle of next week.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1144 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

AVIATION .

High pressure will generally bring a period of VFR conditions much of this forecast. The exception to this rule will be a plume of lake effect moisture/clouds streaming off of Lake Erie which will shift north through the area overnight into Sunday morning as northeast flow veers to the southeast with time. These clouds should dissipate within the overall dry low level airmass so do not expect persistent cigs to last more than 6 hours (and mainly PTK south).

For DTW . MVFR cigs should shift into the terminal around 06z as lake clouds funneling into far SE MI are picked up by increased southeast flow overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected Sunday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Medium for cigs aob 5 kft overnight (roughly 06z to 12z).

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . IRL AVIATION . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 58 mi45 min ENE 8G11 17°F 1023.7 hPa (-1.4)
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 75 mi45 min SSE 4.1G5.1 9°F 1022.7 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI8 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair6°F3°F87%1022 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI20 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair5°F-0°F79%1024.9 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI22 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair4°F1°F88%1023 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNE8NE7NE5NE4NE6NE8N6NE5NE30N5NE5NE3NE3NE3NE30NE3000000
1 day agoNE5N6
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2 days ago00N3N3N3NE300N3NW3NW6NW5NW6NW7N5N60NW300000NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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