Wednesday, September22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sherburne, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:59PM Wednesday September 22, 2021 8:28 AM EDT (12:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:04PMMoonset 7:18AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202109220900;;990287 Fzus51 Kbuf 220545 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 145 Am Edt Wed Sep 22 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-220900- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 145 Am Edt Wed Sep 22 2021
Overnight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Occasional rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Occasional rain in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 44 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sherburne, NY
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location: 42.74, -75.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 221106 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 706 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. An approaching frontal system will bring rain showers to the area later today through Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Thursday and Thursday night, especially over the Poconos and Catskills. Rain ends early Friday from west to east with gradual clearing skies and cooler temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 620 AM Update . Adjusted PoPs through this afternoon to align better with updated guidance. Most of the adjustments were increases over the areas west of I-81 . but also bumped up the chances over the Mohawk Valley this afternoon. Also bumped temps up a bit as lows did not drop as far as originally forecasted. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

400 AM Forecast . The main weather impact for today will be gusty winds and rain showers ahead of an approaching cold front.

High pressure over Nova Scotia is battling for position with an approaching low pressure system. The upper level trough is currently moving through the Mississippi Valley and is expected to form into a cutoff low over the Ohio Valley later this morning. The strong high over Nova Scotia will slightly retreat to the east . but is strong enough that it will stop the eastward progression of the low and force it north into the Great Lakes by Wednesday night. The eastward movement of the high will allow for a couple shortwave troughs to move through our region ahead of the approaching low. The first shortwave will bring rain showers this morning . while the second wave will follow closely behind and bring rain shower chances this afternoon. A majority of the rain today will be west of the I-81 corridor . but upslope flow from the southerly winds will allow for a slight chance of rain showers to occur across the Catskills and Poconos. Instability looks to be very low across the area, with an area of weak CAPE trying to nose its way into the SW portion of our area. Rain showers will be the predominant weather but a clap of thunder cannot be ruled out over this area during peak heating in the afternoon.

Southerly flow will continue to advect moist air into the CWA . with PWATs around 1.80 west of I-81 today. Convection will be weak and scattered, but multiple rounds of rain showers will allow for western Steuben County to see 75 to 1 in. with amounts dropping as you progress eastward.

Temperatures will be warmer than Tuesday, courtesy of strong warm air advection across the region. Mid 70s are expected across the area . with upper 70s in the Wyoming and Mohawk Valleys and low 70s across hilltops. Because the high is not moving much and the low slowly continues to progress to the east . isobars are piling up . especially across our western counties. This will allow for southerly winds gusting up to 25kts across the Finger Lakes and gusts up to 20kts for the rest of the area.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. 435 AM Update A high amplitude trough currently over the mid- Mississippi Valley will form a closed low over the Ohio Valley tonight, then drift north into Michigan through Thursday, its eastward progress blocked by a rex block off the coast of New England the the Maritimes. A surface low will occlude over the lower Great Lakes tonight, as a cold front pushes slowly towards the Hudson Valley Thursday night into Friday morning. Deep subtropical moisture will advect northwards ahead of this system into the Mid Atlantic states, with PW values around 1.75 to 1.85 inches expected to nose into the region ahead of the front.

By Thursday morning, the main band of precip focused along the cold front will be working from Western NY into the western Finger Lakes. Meanwhile, ahead of the front, some lingering drier air in the mid-levels will limit precip coverage and QPF amounts, though lighter showers and plenty of cloud cover will develop, particularly over the Catskills and Poconos, aided by low-level SE flow. The main precip band will slowly shift to the east through the day, and will be centered near the I-81 corridor by mid-afternoon, reaching the Catskills and Poconos by evening.

While the incoming moisture transport will be quite strong, aided by a 50-60 knot low level jet streak, it will also become increasingly narrow as it heads further to the east. Despite the slow movement, the residence time of heavier rainfall may be limited to 3 to 6 hours. The lack of heavier "priming" rainfall ahead of the main band will also be a limiting factor for flash flooding concerns.

The main question at this point is whether or not we can somehow manage to develop a few breaks in the cloud cover ahead of the front and produce heavier convective showers over NE PA and into the Catskills on Thursday. This seems unlikely with the Marine Layer in place, and we'll be unlikely to tap into elevated instability without some sort of trigger (again, ahead of the front).

While moderate to heavy rainfall is likely in the main band associated with the front, forecast QPF grids failed to yield any 6 hour amounts that exceed 3 or even 6 hour Flash Flood Guidance values, given all the aforementioned limiting factors. Ensemble river forecasts from MARFC are also largely unimpressive even with the heavier QPF members. Considering all this, issuing a Flood Watch seemed premature. That said, the areas of greatest concern (still falling short of a Watch so far) would be over NE PA (particularly the Poconos) and into the Catskills Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

Expect the frontal precip band will have an embedded, low-topped convective line, with some sporadic lightning. Can't completely rule out a damaging wind threat with momentum transfer given the very strong winds just aloft. With low level shear quite strong, any breaks of sun could lead to isolated severe thunderstorms, but it's a highly conditional risk given the expected cloud cover.

Cooler and drier air will work in behind the front, with some fog potential over western areas by Friday morning. Seasonably cool temperatures, with highs in the 60s, look to be on tap for Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. 435 AM Update

The next shortwave trough dropping across the area looks to arrive a little later, resulting in a more favorable forecast for Saturday. This next system will be moisture-starved as it moves across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with just spotty showers possible.

High pressure will build across the central Appalachians early next week, but westerly flow and cool advection on Sunday could bring some lake-effect clouds and spotty showers across northern areas. A better chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms looks to be lurking on Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. MVFR conditions are expected across all terminals this morning except for KSYR and KRME. Ceilings will lift late in the morning to low end VFR . with the chance of dropping back down to MVFR during rain showers in the afternoon. The best chance for rain showers today will be across terminals west of I-81 . but they will be light so visby restrictions are not expected. Winds are expected to be strong today, with gusts between 20-25kts this morning through afternoon. Ceilings are expected to drop to MVFR and lower across all terminals after 00z. The best chance for IFR conditions will be at ELM and AVP with a stratus deck in place as winds will be strong enough to keep fog at bay.

Outlook .

Wednesday night and Thursday . Frontal system brings a prolonged period of steady rain and thunder, and associated restrictions. Strong speed and directional LLWS likely through most of this time.

Friday . Showers ending early, then VFR.

Saturday and Sunday . Mainly VFR, apart from restrictions in valley fog at KELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . JTC NEAR TERM . JTC SHORT TERM . MPH LONG TERM . MPH AVIATION . JTC


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 76 mi58 min SSE 9.9 G 16 67°F 1016 hPa62°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 94 mi58 min Calm 67°F 1020 hPa66°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY34 mi35 minESE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F62°F97%1018.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRME

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmNW3NW6NW3NW84CalmCalmSW8W7NW4NE4CalmE3CalmCalmE3SE4CalmSE3CalmSE4SE4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Wed -- 12:48 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:07 PM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.20.51.8344.64.6432.11.20.1-0.5-01.22.63.74.44.84.43.52.61.8

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:19 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     4.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:38 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:41 PM EDT     4.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.11.12.33.344.54.33.52.61.70.7-0.2-0.30.51.82.93.84.44.53.932.31.5

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