Thursday, September23, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Caledonia, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:39PM Thursday September 23, 2021 9:04 PM EDT (01:04 UTC) Moonrise 8:06PMMoonset 9:04AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 405 Pm Edt Thu Sep 23 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Through early evening..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Rain showers likely. A slight chance of waterspouts. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late at night, then backing west toward daybreak. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the evening, then mostly clear overnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Then backing south 20 to 25 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet late in the day.
Friday night..South winds to 30 knots veering west late at night, then veering northwest 15 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Saturday..West winds around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the day.
Monday..Southwest winds around 15 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering west, then veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ846 Expires:202109240800;;069578 FZUS53 KGRR 232007 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-240800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caledonia, MI
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location: 42.79, -85.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 232316 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 716 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

- Diminishing rain and wind this evening

- Thunderstorms possible Friday evening with heavy rain and gusty winds

- Drying out for next week

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

- Diminishing rain and wind this evening

The low pressure system centered near Detroit will lift slowly north northeast into tonight. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken across the CWA during that time. Also the mixing height will be lowering during the evening. As a result the wind will become less gusty and the sustained values will be lowering through the night. We will likely hold onto some light rain/drizzle into the evening . but as the low pulls away the moisture depth and lift will diminish leading to conditions drying out. Models are in relative agreement in showing no precipitation in the CWA after 09z.

- Thunderstorms possible Friday evening with heavy rain and gusty winds

Models are in decent agreement in showing no precipitation for Friday . through 00z Sat. Then the cold front pushes in for the evening and overnight period. The main signal in the models is for a band of more than a half inch of rain with some area potentially seeing more than an inch. The southwest flow seems to be favoring the Muskegon to Fremont to Big Rapids region for the heaviest rain. Soil conditions are relatively dry in those locations so this should result in no impacts other than some ponding of water near any clogged drains. Some instability will be present along the frontal zone and higher surface theta e values coming off of Lake MI could support better instability closer to the lakeshore. The HRRR and Namnest have been showing a risk for gusty winds around the frontal zone. This seems reasonable given the strengthening temperature gradient and winds at 850 mb as the front enters MI.

- Drying out for next week

The Gulf moisture stays to the south and west of the CWA next week as a sharp mid level ridge develops just west of the MI. This ridge is shown to stall out and continue to influence our weather possibly into next weekend. Being on the east side of this system . we will see subsidence and dry air advection. All this should spell below normal precipitation. As for the temperatures . some uncertainty exists there. Several models like the 12z GFS and 00z High Res Euro are showing 925 mb temps cooling off during the week. Thus a potential for gradual cooling trend may exist. The incoming 12z Euro suggest the cooling trend will not last long if it happens. We will start the week off with above normal values.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 716 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

We are expecting clearing to spread across our TAF sites after 06z and all TAF sites should be clear (or nearly so) by 09z. Between then and now, conditions will slowly improve (cigs lift and precipitation come to an end) over the next 3-4 hours.

PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING . There is band of showers over Lake Michigan coming on shore south of South Haven at 23z, this area of showers will slowly break up and lift north over the next 2-4 hours but while the overall area lifts northward, the individual showers are moving south southeast. However as the large scale system lifts northward dry air comes in from the west and up from the south so all of the precipitation will dry up from south to north as that happens.

WIND..With the system lifting north northeast the wind gradient will also lift north northeast too. That will mean decreasing winds overnight. However there is a band of higher winds on the south edge of the mid level system lifting north with it, so in the 2000ft AGL to 10000 ft AGL here will be a period of 30 to 40 knots winds but that should be north of our TAF sites by 09z.

Friday . Skies should be sunny most of the day and winds will turn to the south before noon. Clouds, showers and thunderstorms return after 00z ahead of the next frontal system.

MARINE. Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021

The pressure gradient remains relatively tight into the late afternoon hours but gradually weakens tonight. The waves will take longer to settle down. We did issue a SCA to replace the GLW earlier. A break in the hazardous conditions is expected for part of Friday By evening though. the south to southwest flow will be strengthening and gusts over 25 knots are looking likely around the next front. There could even be a short window for gales. There a window this afternoon and evening when a risk for waterspouts will exist. We will maintain the BHS into this evening given the ongoing hazardous conditions along the lakeshore.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037- 043-050-056-064-071.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . MJS DISCUSSION . MJS AVIATION . WDM MARINE . MJS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 35 mi46 min W 6 G 8 49°F 1011.7 hPa47°F
45029 39 mi24 min WNW 5.8 G 9.7 47°F 43°F3 ft1012.7 hPa43°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 47 mi34 min 12 G 13 53°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 52 mi24 min N 7 G 8 47°F 1012.6 hPa46°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 69 mi64 min NNE 4.1 G 7 53°F 1014.6 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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N8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grand Rapids, Gerald R. Ford International Airport, MI7 mi71 minWNW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F47°F80%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGRR

Wind History from GRR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10
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1 day agoNW7N6N7NW7N10NE14NE5NE12NW7N10N8N6N9N10N15
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2 days agoS12
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S10S12SW11SW12
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SW12W12NW10NW10NW8NW7NW5N9N7NW7N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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