Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 5:06 AM   Moonset 7:55 PM

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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 505 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening - .
Tonight - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then veering west early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight. Wednesday - West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest late in the morning, then backing south early in the afternoon becoming east 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. Wednesday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 4 to 6 feet. Thursday - Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots backing north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the late morning and afternoon.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 072014 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 314 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon and evening, a few of which could be strong to severe.

- Small craft conditions are expected today.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

SHORT TERM
Issued 314 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Periods of rain and thunderstorms will continue across southern Wisconsin through this evening. The window for severe thunderstorms will be over the next couple or hours with the best chances across southeastern Wisconsin. The warm front is currently snaking across far southern Wisconsin. This is the area that highlights the best threat for strong to severe storms. Far southeast Wisconsin is also right along the better CAPE and effective bulk shear gradient which will give those areas the best chance for any type of supercellular development. Storms that ride along the warm front will have the best potential for any brief tornadoes over the next couple hours. The warm front will provide the surge of winds and just enough of a change in direction to be able to actualize any brief spin ups. Steep mid level lapse rates, upper level synoptic support, and the warm/moisture air advection across our forecast area make hail the primary threat. Can't rule out some isolated damaging winds especially with any thunderstorms quickly collapses.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon and evening. As the environment becomes more worked over due to the ongoing rain/storms the chances for any strong to severe thunderstorms will decrease. The rain chances will persist until the warm/occluded front moves out over Lake Michigan late this evening. Overnight tonight, dry weather is expected. The dry conditions will be short lived as additional rain and storms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening.

For rain and storms Wednesday, the potential for strong to severe storms is very low. This will largely be in part to the easterly winds and the mid level lift/support remaining south of the state. An upper level trough will swing through the region providing some lift and there will be some decent moisture.
Overall looking more like a stratiform type of set up with southern Wisconsin remaining on the northern side of the mid and sfc level troughing. The easterly winds look to undercut any potential for warmer air to move in near the surface as well which will keep any rain/storm elevated. So while there will be rain and a few claps of thunder, severe weather is not anticipated. Rain is likely to linger into the overnight hours Wednesday.

Patterson

LONG TERM
Issued 314 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Thursday through Tuesday:

Rain is expected to continue through Thursday afternoon (50-60%)
as mid-level cyclonic flow associated a shortwave trough and surface low pressure across Indiana and Ohio propagate eastward.
Mid- level lapse rates of 5-6 C/km and mid-level CAPE values upwards of 100 J/kg combined with the synoptic scale influences across southern Wisconsin may give rise to a few rumbles of thunder on Thursday mainly along the Wisconsin/Illinois border, but primarily rain is expected especially into the afternoon.

Heading into the weekend and early next week, a fairly unsettled pattern develops across the upper midwest with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs and ridges propagating across Wisconsin. Brief 500hPa ridging and warm air advection on Friday is expected across the state throughout the morning and early afternoon, allowing for quiet weather conditions Friday morning. A 500hPa shortwave trough and cold air advection will quickly follow this ridge providing synoptic scale ascent and steepening lapse rates such that showers and thunderstorms develop across southern Wisconsin Friday afternoon into Saturday morning (30-40%). A surface low is expected to develop across southern Ontario in response to the upper-level wave and sink southward across Lake Michigan providing for additional shower and thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. Another brief 500hPa ridge then builds across Wisconsin again on Sunday.

Model guidance begins to diverge in their solutions on Monday as another mid-level shortwave trough traverses the upper midwest through early next week.

Falkinham

AVIATION
Issued 314 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected today across southern Wisconsin through this evening. Ceilings around 2000 ft to 500 ft are expected to persist through this evening until the warm/occluded front has moved east out of the state. Periods of rain/storms will develop this afternoon and early evening bringing a couple round visibilites with the rain which will be around 2-4 SM. Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon. This evening the potential for strong to severe storms will diminish as the environment becomes more worked over. Tonight through Wednesday morning dry weather is expected behind the frontal boundary. Skies are expected to briefly clear tonight bringing a return to VFR conditions. Clouds will return Wednesday late morning/early afternoon ahead of another round of rain and storms.

Lingering east to southeast winds this afternoon will become southwesterly by late this evening behind the occluded front.
Overnight winds become lighter and variable, eventually becoming easterly again by Wednesday afternoon.

Patterson

MARINE
Issued 314 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Breezy east to southeast winds will prevail through much of Wednesday as a low around 29.1 inches lingers over the northern Great Plains. Periods of showers ans thunderstorms will continue through this evening. A few storms occlude be strong with gusty winds and hail, particularly this afternoon and early this evening. Best chance for strong to severe storms will be across the southern third of the Lake. Fog has begun to develop across the central third of the lake as warm moist air surges northward. The best chances for fog development will be for open water zones north of the warm front through this evening. Winds will shift to northeast over the lake Wednesday afternoon and evening as a second area of low pressure around 29.5 inches pass south of Lake Michigan. Additional periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday evening through Thursday, with conditions drying out Thursday night. Northerly winds will persist through Friday morning, prior to turning out of the southwest on Friday afternoon as a 29.7 inch low pressure moves across Ontario. Gales are not anticipated through the duration of the period.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Tuesday.

Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874 until 10 PM Tuesday.

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