Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 3:19 AM   Moonset 3:18 PM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 1032 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of today - West winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Partly Sunny late this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Becoming mainly clear. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers likely Tuesday night.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 51 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 040527 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 127 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weakening cold front will bring some showers to parts of the region this evening into tonight. Shower chances steadily decrease later tonight into Saturday with just scattered showers, and also dry time built in between the showers. Another slow moving cold front will pass across the area Saturday night through Sunday bringing the next round of more widespread showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. High pressure then returns Monday, allowing for a dry start to the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A weakening trough will continue to drift east across the area overnight. Showers are light and very spotty, but a few sprinkles and light showers will continue overnight.

With very little forcing in place for Saturday, expecting just scattered showers, especially during the morning hours with a good deal of dry time built in through the day. Next stronger cold front will approach from the west late Saturday, while next wave moves north from the Ohio Valley. This will help to displace the upper level ridge east over New England, thus opening the door for the next surge of moisture and lift to move over the area with chances for showers increasing from south to north late in the day into the evening. Highs will be mainly in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The mid-level ridge axis over the forecast area through Saturday afternoon will push east toward New England Saturday night. In its wake, a shortwave trough will track northeast out of the OH/TN Valleys toward WNY. As the trough approaches, shower coverage will increase significantly from south to north through the later portion of Saturday evening and overnight. An influx of moisture with the trough will also help showers expand over the region. There still remains some uncertainty with track of shortwave trough and moisture over the forecast area with some models placing the higher rainfall amounts over WNY and other guidance more to the east toward CNY.

An incoming cold front on Sunday morning will increase forcing over the area, prolonging and expanding the potential for showers through at least the afternoon hours. Still uncertainty with how quickly the cold front tracks through the region among guidance as well with some guidance prolonging the showers through most of the day and into the evening on Sunday. Overall though the later portion of Saturday evening through at least the early afternoon on Sunday looks to be soggy for most of the forecast area. The more organized showers on Sunday should be mainly across the eastern third of the area by the late afternoon, with some lingering/scattered showers across the rest of the area.

With the large scale trough just north of the region still, along with lingering synoptic moisture, scattered showers will linger through most of Sunday night. Drier air moving into the area along a zonal flow will start to scatter out any remaining showers from west to east through the late night.

Rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch to half an inch is expected, with some higher amounts possible as well. Current thinking is the higher qpf amounts will be along the south shore of Lake Ontario east to the north country. Still plenty of uncertainty with higher qpf placement among guidance still.

A ridge building into the region will result in drier weather for Monday through Monday night across the entire area. Clearing skies on Monday will result in increasing sunshine from northwest to southeast through the day. Clouds will linger the longest near the NY/PA line as a disturbance tracks south of the area.

Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low 50s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the mid and upper 60s for the lower elevations south of Lake Ontario. For Monday, temperatures warm to the mid 60s to mid 70s from the higher terrain to lower elevations respectively.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A sprawling mid and upper level low will start out this period over the northern Rockies and Upper Plains states on Tuesday...then will slowly drift eastward across the northern half of the CONUS through the remainder of the work week
This being said
the medium range guidance continues to exhibit considerable differences in the strength and rate of eastward progression of this low...and consequently also in the strength/timing of a number of shortwave impulses ejecting eastward from this system and across our region.

With the above in mind...forecast confidence in associated precipitation potential/timing remains fairly low particularly from about Wednesday onward...and as such have undercut blended guidance a bit in an attempt to better reflect this uncertainty. In general this system should bring more unsettled weather with frequent opportunities for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms during the middle and latter portions of next week...though likely also with some drier periods interspersed.

As for temperatures...these will continue to average some 5-10 degrees above normal through this period.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A weak trough will continue to cross the region through early this morning with a few spotty, light showers. VFR will prevail for the bulk of the area, although some low MVFR/IFR stratus may develop across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier for several hours around daybreak. Some of this may impact KJHW.

There will continue to be a few spotty showers today, but much of the time will be rain free as the trough washes out overhead. VFR will prevail with a wealth of mid level clouds.

Another wave of low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley this evening across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. This will bring a period of fairly widespread rain spreading from southwest to northeast across the area from late evening through the overnight.
CIGS will deteriorate to widespread MVFR/IFR shortly after the rain begins, and any pockets of moderate rain will bring short term VSBY restrictions. A 40+ knot low level jet will also produce some low level wind shear overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday...Widespread MVFR/IFR in the morning in rain. Improving to mainly VFR from west to east in the afternoon and evening as the rain tapers off. Chance of a few widely scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening across Western NY.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE
Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected to persist into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Expect this to bring some choppy waters at times, however conditions will remain below headline criteria, especially with an offshore flow developing tonight then persisting through the weekend, keeping the highest waves over Canadian waters for Saturday and Sunday. While quiet weather continues for the end of the work week, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight through Sunday. High pressure will build across the area for the start of the new work week providing mainly gentle breezes with no more than some light chop expected through Tuesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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