Friday, January28, 2022
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Marine Weather and Tides
Amesbury Town, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:52PM Friday January 28, 2022 6:31 AM EST (11:31 UTC) Moonrise 4:46AMMoonset 1:48PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 427 Am Est Fri Jan 28 2022
.storm warning in effect from late tonight through Saturday evening...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Snow. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..N winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 60 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Snow. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..N winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 15 to 20 ft. Snow. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of light freezing spray.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon through Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 427 Am Est Fri Jan 28 2022
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Arctic high pressure pushes east of the waters tonight. A cold front approaches the waters from the west Friday, then stalls Friday night over the southern new england waters. Saturday low pressure develops off the nc coast intensifying into a powerful storm as it tracks ne near the 40n/70w benchmark Saturday evening, then into the maritimes Sunday. High pressure builds over new england early next week. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Amesbury Town, MA
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location: 42.83, -70.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 281014 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 514 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

SYNOPSIS.

A cold front moves through the region this afternoon, possibly accompanied by a few snow showers or flurries. A powerful winter storm will impact much of southern New England Saturday into Saturday evening, bringing heavy snow, blizzard conditions to the coast, possibly damaging winds and coastal flooding. Drier weather returns with below normal temperatures Sunday before a warm up next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY/.

Overall quiet and relatively mild weather is expected today as high pressure exits to the east. Increasing moisture on SW flow is bringing clouds and light snow showers this morning ahead of a mid level trough. Marginal forcing for ascent from this trough together with convergence ahead of an approaching cold front is already leading to scattered light snow showers from Worcester to Cape Ann. This will continue off an on through early afternoon when the cold front drops through. Best chance of these showers will be over western MA and CT. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday, in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Late tonight after midnight things will begin to ramp up ahead of our significant winter storm, the bulk of which comes on Saturday. The 500 mb trough over the Tennessee Valley moves over the Carolinas between 06 and 12Z spawning a low offshore that will rapidly deepen as it moves up just south of the 70/40 benchmark by sunrise. Guidance has come into much better agreement on this track, with the outlier GFS finally shifting back west substantially over the last 24 hours. While the greatest forcing and heavy snow won't start in earnest until after 5 to 7 am or so, light to moderate snow will move into the south coast around midnight and quickly spread north and west. Given a very cold column, snow-to-liquid ratios at or above 10:1, and QPF 0.25" to 0.5" we'll be waking up to snowfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches centered over southeast MA.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/.

*** A powerful multi facet winter storm with blizzard conditions and near hurricane force winds to impact southern New England Saturday & Saturday evening ***

Overview .

Explosive cyclogenesis occurs off the Mid Atlc coast tonight, with an impressive ~40 mb pressure drop in 24 hrs, yielding a bomb cyclone of around a 965 mb low over the eastern MA waters Sat evening! 00z guidance trended west and is in somewhat better agreement than previous runs, however differences still exist. The 00z NAM (especially the 12km NAM) the deepest, slowest and farthest west solution of the 00z guidance. Therefore followed a non NAM model blend solution for this portion of the forecast.

Details .

Heavy snow/Blizzard conditions .

Intense cyclone developing along a highly baroclinic zone, coupled with very strong jet dynamics, dual upper level jet streak and a fire hose of Atlantic moisture, will result in very heavy snowfall across RI and eastern MA. Still some uncertainty on the westward extent of the heavy snow. However enough confidence to upgrade to warnings for the entire region, except western MA where a winter storm watch was issued, given this will be the back edge of the heavy snow. Farther east across RI and eastern MA, heaviest snow will fall during the day Sat and Sat evening, where snowfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour are possible at times across RI and eastern MA, yielding storm totals of 12-18" across this area. The highest totals will likely be realized across eastern MA including Boston,Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard where 18-24 inches is likely, and a low prob of isolated amounts of up to 30" is possible. However still too early to say exactly where these mesoscale bands set up, usually just to the NW of the mid level low or mid level bent back warm front. It's possible this heavy band of snow may pivot as far west as eastern CT/RI into the Worcester Hills. SLR in this band will likely be on the order of 15-20 to 1, given strong forcing in the snow growth region. Still too early to pinpoint these mesoscale features at this time range. Other issue with these mesoscale bands, is there is usually considerably less snow on either side of the band. Thus, snow totals will vary somewhat from location to location. Issued a blizzard warning for the immediate coast, as this is the area of highest probability of heavy snow, strong winds and vsby near zero at times. It's possible the blizzard warning may need to expanded westward into RT-128 and RI. Will wait to see trends in 12z guidance. Thundersnow is possible on the nose of the dry slot, as intrusion of mid level dry air steepens lapse rates. Although, if the dry slot comes too far onshore, this would cut down on snow totals, which is possible across the Cape and Islands. Something we will have to watch. Considerable blowing and drifting snow will persist into Sat night even after the snow ends, in response to very strong NNW winds.

Strong to damaging winds .

Impressive low level NNE jet of 75-85 kt traverse the region this afternoon. Model soundings indicate up to 65 kt gusts is possible from Cape Ann to Cape Cod including the Islands. Thus, it's possible a few locations gust to hurricane force 64 kt/74 mph! Therefore, tree damage and power outages are possible in this region this afternoon and early evening.

Dangerous cold .

As storm intensifies, it will draw upon very cold air over NY state and northern New England, advecting this airmass southward. Thus temps will fall thru the teens with heavy snow falling this afternoon. Gusty NNE winds will yield wind chills between +5 to -10F. So not quite Wind Chill Advisory criteria, but given near white-out conditions at times, again, don't venture out if at all possible.

Coastal flooding .

See coastal flooding section for discussion.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Highlights .

* Quiet and increasingly mild weather to follow through most of the week.

Sunday the low center moves up through the maritimes, replaced quickly by a broad high pressure. This high lingers overhead through at least Tuesday bringing dry and sunny weather. Winds, though, will remain elevated on Sunday as we're sandwiched between the exiting low and incoming high. Bufkit soundings indicate winds gusting 15 to 25 mph for most. Next chance for some wet weather comes around Wednesday with a glancing blow from a low passing to our north, but this looks insignificant at the moment. The main story will be warming temperatures, peaking in the low 50s by Thursday.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06z update .

Today . high confidence.

Marginal MVFR/VFR along with scattered flurries possible. Light SW wind in the morning, becoming light NW late in the day.

Tonight . moderate confidence.

MVFR to localized IFR conditions developing as light snow moves in from the southwest. N to NNE winds increasing to 15-20 kt across interior terminals and 25-30 kt across coastal terminals.

Saturday . moderate confidence.

*** Near Blizzard conditions across eastern MA, including KBOS, Cape Cod and the Islands ***

Widespread IFR conditions across RI and eastern MA with LIFR possible at times, with near-zero vsby and NE wind gusts up to 60 mph at times, yielding near-blizzard conditions at times. For interior terminals, N winds 15-20 kt with gusts 30-35 kt. IFR/LIFR in near blizzard conditions may extend westward into the Worcester Hill and eastern CT. LLWS of 70 kt at 2500 ft.

Saturday night . moderate confidence.

Near blizzard conditions at 00z in IFR/LIFR conditions, will improve by late evening and especially overnight. Elsewhere accumulating snow ends from west to east, with MVFR/IFR conditions at 00z improving to MVFR/VFR overnight. Gusty NNW winds will result in considerable blowing and drifting snow, even after accumulating snow ends Preliminary snow totals.

KBOS . 18-24" with higher drifts KPVD . 12-18" with higher drifts KORH . 8-12" with higher drifts KBDL . 6-10" with higher drifts

KBOS Terminal . heaviest snow with possibly 2-4" hourly snowfall rates along with strongest winds 18z Sat thru 00z Sun.

KBDL Terminal . heaviest snow with possibly 1-2" hourly snowfall rates and strongest winds 18z-22z.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 65 kt. SN.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with gusts up to 60 kt. Chance SN.

Sunday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday through Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

MARINE. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

*** Storm Warnings with near hurricane force gusts ***

Friday . high confidence.

Cold front sweeps across the waters with SSW winds in the morning becoming WNW in the afternoon. Other than a few scattered snow showers or flurries, dry weather and good vsby prevail.

Tonight . high confidence.

A powerful coastal storm approaches from the southeast, with N winds turning NNE with gusts increasing to 30-40 kt by daybreak. Rough seas with outer waters increasing to 6-10 ft.

Saturday . high confidence.

A very powerful coastal storm tracks just east of Nantucket and Cape Cod, with central pressure lowering to around 965 mb in the MA coastal waters Sat afternoon. Storm force NNE winds with a few gusts approaching hurricane force (64 kt/74 mph). Dangerous seas building 20 to 30 ft eastern MA waters. Vsby near zero at times in heavy snow.

Saturday Night: Strong NNW winds with gusts up to 55 kt. Rough seas up to 28 ft. Chance of snow. Areas of visibility 1 nm or less.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/ .

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Chance of freezing spray.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Two tide cycles will be impacted from this storm, Sat morning and Sat evening. However, as of now it appears the strongest wind and storm surge will occur around the time of low tide Sat afternoon, with a surge of 2 to 3 ft. If this timing holds, both tide cycles would likely experience widespread minor coastal flooding, with pockets of moderate flooding. Didn't have 50% confidence for widespread moderate coastal flooding, therefore held off on a coastal flood watch. However, day shift today will have to see how 12z guidance trends, especially regarding timing of strongest winds and surge.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to midnight EST Saturday night for CTZ002>004. MA . Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to midnight EST Saturday night for MAZ003>006-010>014-017-018-020-021-024- 026. Blizzard Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 5 AM EST Sunday for MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023. Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening for MAZ002-008-009. RI . Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to midnight EST Saturday night for RIZ001>008. MARINE . Storm Warning from 4 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera/BW NEAR TERM . BW SHORT TERM . Nocera LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . Nocera/BW MARINE . Nocera/BW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 18 mi47 min NNW 1.9 25°F 1020 hPa16°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 22 mi32 min WSW 17G19 29°F 1019.3 hPa (-0.3)13°F
SEIM1 22 mi44 min 27°F 39°F1020.4 hPa17°F
CMLN3 23 mi148 min S 8.9 39°F
44073 27 mi148 min 16G19 31°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 31 mi88 min 43°F3 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 33 mi44 min 29°F 1020.1 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 38 mi22 min WSW 14G18 44°F1021 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 38 mi148 min 41°F4 ft
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 41 mi44 min WSW 1.9G6 24°F 37°F1019.8 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 42 mi92 min SSW 4.1 23°F 14°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 43 mi36 min 46°F4 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Last 24 hrN6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA10 mi38 minSW 510.00 miOvercast27°F15°F61%1020.4 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA18 mi39 minSW 410.00 miOvercast27°F15°F61%1019.8 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH20 mi96 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast25°F13°F60%1020.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWM

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24 hrNW3W30SW3SW6SW7SW3SW9S6S9
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1 day agoNW4NW7NW8NW9NW10W11
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2 days agoSW40SW6SW5SW6SW6SW7W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Newburyport
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:39 AM EST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:25 AM EST     8.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:46 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:36 PM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:07 PM EST     7.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Newburyport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts, Tide feet
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Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:52 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:49 AM EST     1.44 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:06 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:42 AM EST     -1.41 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:46 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:38 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:26 PM EST     1.46 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:42 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:09 PM EST     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current, knots
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